How Will the Cookie Crumble? A Post-PA Scenario

Abe Haak
December 14, 2018
Paper No. 1036

If and when the Palestinian Authority (PA) collapses, Jordan will bear the greatest brunt of the resulting humanitarian crisis. Such a collapse could be triggered by several factors, but will almost certainly lead to a mass exodus of Palestinians from Areas A and B. While Israel will probably opt for a minimalist containment approach, the government in Amman will have to choose: it can either come to the aid of the Palestinians in the territories, or it can allow them to enter Jordan for help. Israel and Jordan are both likely to favor the first option, which may then facilitate a solution to the problem of governance in the territories.

Jordanian Law Permits the Murder of Israelis

Jordanian soldier Ahmad Mussa Dakasma, the notorious murderer of Israeli schoolgirls in Naharayim, was recently released from prison after serving 20 years. His name is back in the headlines following a series of posts he wrote encouraging the murder of Jews inside Israel. Dakasma claims that such incitement is consistent with Jordanian law, citing an addition to the State Security Law of 2013. Israel should demand that Jordan immediately cancel this addition to the law and stop Dakasma from inciting the murder of Jews.

Saudi Religious Diplomacy Targets Jerusalem

A United Arab Emirates-backed Saudi effort to wrest control from Jordan of Islam’s holy places in Jerusalem signals a sharper, more overt edge to Saudi religious diplomacy. The kingdom’s quest for regional hegemony risks deepening divides in the Muslim world.

Protests in Jordan: Revisiting the Arab Spring

Protests that forced Jordan’s prime minister to resign and laid bare the country’s systemic economic and political crisis shed new light on the root causes of popular protests in the Middle East that swept the region in 2011 and have since continuously erupted across a swath of land stretching from Morocco to Egypt.

The Danger to Jordan of a Palestinian State

Abe Haak
June 1, 2018
Paper No. 852

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan stands to lose more than any other party from the establishment of a State of Palestine. While the potential dangers and complications for Israel of such a state could be significant, Jordan would face threats to both its social stability and its foundational idea: that it governs the Arab population on both banks of its eponymous river. In addition to the substantial political and security difficulties such a state would create for Jordan, it could also jeopardize its continued viability by shifting the locus of political leadership for a majority of Jordanians away from Amman and towards Ramallah.

Beware Media Fear-Mongering

The developments that followed the Temple Mount crisis highlighted the media's penchant for manufacturing unnecessary drama. If anything, the decision to roll back security measures on the Temple Mount was a sign of Israel's strength, not its weakness.

Israel Is Still at War

Israel just celebrated its sixty-ninth anniversary. Its citizens can be proud of its many impressive achievements, and particularly the building of a very strong military that has withstood many tests. Yet acceptance by all its neighbors has not, unfortunately, been attained. Israel is still at war.

Becoming Part of Jordan and Egypt: A Palestinian Economic Imperative

Reintegrating into the Jordanian state is an economic imperative for the Arab inhabitants of the Palestine Authority. Only by once again becoming citizens of Jordan will they be able to challenge the economic stone wall imposed by domestic Jordanian economic lobby groups barring West Bank exports. A two-state solution would lead, not to an economy of peace, but to an economy of violence as lobby groups in both Israel and Jordan shut out the Palestinian state’s exports. The Palestinian state would inevitably react by threatening and committing violence to extract the international aid to which the PA has become accustomed.

Trump, the Mideast Conflict, and the Jordanian Option

Instead of fixating on an independent Palestinian state, the new US administration should look east to the Hashemite Kingdom as a stabilizing influence on Palestinian politics. President Trump has an opportunity to help Jordan prosper while furthering the interests of the US and its allies.

Jordanian Security and Prosperity: An Essential Aspect of Israeli Policy

Israel has a strategic interest in, and long-standing commitment to, the safety, security, stability and prosperity of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. In current times, the relationship is buttressed by a broad-ranging series of cooperative ventures in the strategic, security, diplomatic, economic and energy fields.