Not Yet a Peace Treaty: Understanding the Border Delimitation Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan 

PSCRP-BESA Reports No 51 (April 22, 2024)

In a historic move, Armenia has agreed to return four abandoned Azerbaijani border villages that had been under its control for over 30 years, since the first Karabakh war. On April 19th, the border delimitation Commissions of Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint statement and a preliminary map, which is based on the most recent topographical surveys and drafted on the legal basis of the Soviet period. The statement issued by both Commissions underlines that the entire process of border delimitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is built upon a foundation of the 1991 Alma-Ata Protocol – the borders that de jure existed between Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan are being restored. 

The agreement was reached during the eighth round of negotiations between Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigorian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Shahin Mustafayev. Sections between four villages in the Northeastern Tavush Province of Armenia and four deserted villages that were formerly a part of the Northwestern Gazakh district of Azerbaijan will be included in the first phase of the delimitation procedure.

“It was decided that the description of these segments of the border line will be compiled, taking into account the specification of coordinates based on geodetic measurements on the ground, which will be formalized by the corresponding Protocol-Description, which must be agreed and signed by the parties by May 15th, 2024,” the joint statement reads, adding that the work on coordinating the draft Regulation for the Joint Activities of the Commission on the Delimitation of the State Border and Border Security will be completed by July 1st, 2024, and “to start the process of intra-state agreement and approval of the Provisions in order and in accordance with the requirements of the legislations of the states”.

It is too early to claim that this agreement might be the first part of the Peace Treaty. According to the Information and Public Relations Department of the Armenian Prime Minister’s Office, it was a “significant event”, yet “the commissions simply noted that they are not a negotiating format for the Peace Treaty. That treaty is being negotiated in a different format and will have a higher status… The Alma-Ata Declaration is fundamental for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it has already been agreed at the highest level as a basic principle”.

There are certain aspects of the agreement to be considered and learned from: 

1. The negotiations were direct, without mediators, who failed for over 3 decades to get any results. The OSCE Minsk Group for example, which was headed by a co-chairmanship consisting of France, Russia and the United States, came out empty handed due to the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. Both sides blamed each other for the failure, when in reality Russia and France were fighting to gain control of Armenia. The Russians still have their military bases there and consider every former Soviet Republic their domain. The French saw Armenia as an asset in its regional confrontation with Turkey, while considering Azerbaijan as their opponent’s “offshoot”. The Armenian lobby in France should also be considered a force, demanding “no concessions” to Azerbaijan even at the price of war.
2. The Alma-Ata Declarations of 1991- the founding declarations and principles of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) after the collapse of the USSR, were the basis of Azerbaijani territorial claims for decades. Armenian leadership vocally supported the Declarations but did nothing to follow them. That includes not only the current delimitation, but the entirety of the Karabakh issue – Armenian control over 20% of recognized Azerbaijani territory through the unrecognized “Artsakh Republic” – an analogue of LPR and DPR on the territory of Ukraine.
3. Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the “just war”. The results of two campaigns in the Southern Caucasus, in 2020 and 2023, correspond to the status quo envisioned in the Declarations. It also shows that Baku decided to solve the issue peacefully.
4. The Azerbaijani victory and return of the Karabakh led to the withdrawal of Russian “peacekeepers”, ending Moscow’s years-long military presence there. The “peacekeepers” were supposed to be stationed there till 2025. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side – they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation. As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian declared, the Russian forces will be withdrawn from the border zone of the Tavush region after delimitation and subsequent demarcation. It appears to be a second loss to Russia in the region in a short span of time.
5. The US and the EU almost immediately officially and demonstratively applauded the demarcation agreement. Russia and France were silent. For Paris it is a loss, as its conflict with Baku is growing. Last week, France decided to recall its ambassador for consultations because of the “continuation of unilateral actions on the part of Azerbaijan in recent months, damaging relations between our two countries”, the French MFA noted in a statement. In January this year, Azerbaijani authorities arrested several French nationals suspected of being spies. Peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Southern Caucasus harms French standing in the region. Paris would benefit greatly from an escalation, due to supplying Yerevan with its new weaponry. The agreement on demarcation can become a stepping stone towards the Peace Treaty, which will strengthen the Azerbaijani (read Turkish in French understanding) position. Armenia might not need “protectors” if military conflict is off the table.

There are other players in the region (for example, Iran and India), and other issues, like the project of the Zangezur transport corridor, but currently, it seems that the way towards peaceful resolution is being paved. It all depends now on how the present Armenian leadership will withstand foreign pressure from former and current allies.