There is little indication that Middle Eastern rulers are learning any lessons from the devastating coronavirus. Nor is there any suggestion that they are willing to see the pandemic as an opportunity to negotiate new social contracts at a time when the virus has temporarily taken the wind out of the sails of mass anti-government protests.

As the coronavirus spreads, so does its likely political fallout. For authoritarians and autocrats, this is likely to be a mixed bag. Some will benefit from invasive tracing and monitoring of those affected by the virus, which is likely to boost the evolution toward a “Big Brother” surveillance state as well as nationalist economic policies propagated by populists and nationalists like Donald Trump. Others are seeing perceived government failures to effectively confront the virus undermine already shaky public trust, which can fuel demands for greater transparency, accountability, and freedom of expression.