The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure

On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.

Iran Behind the Scenes During the Second Israel-Lebanon War

This paper presents a new perspective on the reasons for the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War against Hezbollah in 2006.

The Quadruple Threat: North Korea, China, Pakistan, and Iran

The vast, uninterrupted territory that contains North Korea, China, Pakistan, and Iran has greater geostrategic importance today than ever before. Of the two outermost countries of that territory, an anonymous senior US administration official recently said that "Iran and North Korea have resumed cooperation in the framework of a project on long-range missiles that includes the transfer of core components."

No Longer United Against Israel: The New Arab World

The Arab states are no longer a single bloc opposing Israel but are divided into two coalitions. One is on Iran’s side; the other is against it. Israel, which in the past was perceived as the problem, has become part of the solution.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict and Its Implications for Iran

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has put the Islamic regime of Iran in a difficult position. While the government is trying to be neutral, other regime elements have openly taken sides in the conflict.

China Could Signal Increased Engagement with Iran—But It Hasn’t Done So

There are two ways Beijing could signal its interest in moving ahead with a proposed $400 billion economic and military cooperation agreement with Iran: by pushing for Iranian membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and renewing interest in a China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey energy pipeline. China has not moved on either one.

Is the Muslim Brotherhood Helping Iran Skirt US Sanctions?

Many western analysts wonder how much longer the Iranian regime will be able to survive under the weight of backbreaking US sanctions. What they are missing is that the regime has been skirting the sanctions through the aid of long-time collaborators around the world. Evidence strongly suggests that the Muslim Brotherhood is chief among those collaborators.

The 1988 Massacres Still Haunt the Islamic Regime in Iran

In the summer of 1988, during the premiership of Mir-Hussein Mousavi, thousands of opponents of the Islamic Republic were extrajudicially executed while in prison. Newly published evidence from Amnesty International shows that Mousavi, despite his denials, was aware of the executions, casting a dark shadow over the reformist movement in Iran.

From Tripoli to Tripoli, Turkey’s Real Aim Is Egypt

The recent explosion at Beirut Port highlights both Turkey's growing defense cooperation with Iran and its strategic interest in Lebanon, which facilitates Ankara’s provocative and worrisome agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey’s unrestrained aggression in that region may be a diversionary tactic from its slow and patient pursuit of a complex strategy to surround Egypt with hostile forces on multiple fronts and undercut its powerful regional role.

Rejiggering Gulf Security: China’s Game of Shadow Boxing

China and Saudi Arabia are engaged in a complex game of shadow boxing to shape a future security framework for the Gulf designed to contain regional conflicts. In a bid to ensure plausible deniability, the boxers are intellectuals and journalists rather than officials, at least for the time being.