Topic:

Iran

Hints of Gulf Rapprochement: Iranian Tactics Might Be Paying Off

| October 16, 2019

Fears of a potential military conflict with Iran may have opened the door to a Saudi-Iranian dialogue against the backdrop of a rethink of US military logistics, involving at least a gradual partial relocation to the US of command and control operations based in the Gulf for almost four decades.

Roadmap for a Chinese-Iranian Strategic Partnership

| October 2, 2019

Relations between Iran and China go as far back as the ancient Silk Road – but despite the recent establishment of a formal comprehensive strategic partnership between the two, Beijing’s economic, political, and strategic interests remain too complex and self-contradictory to permit a close alignment with Tehran. In the post-JCPOA era, China is likely to remain Iran’s top economic partner in the coming years, but it is a mistake to overestimate the Sino-Iranian partnership. The US’s anti-Iran policy and the sanctions that accompany it could prevent the emergence of a more solid partnership.

Putin Clumsily Attempts to Exploit Gulf Tensions

| October 1, 2019

Vladimir Putin sees an opportunity in escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, but his attempts to make the most of it have been clumsy and could be self-defeating.

The Al-Hashd al-Sha’abi Militias at a Crossroads

| September 27, 2019

The recent assaults on the militia bases of al-Hashd al-Sha’abi raise questions about Iraq’s future. Despite the Iraqi PM’s ultimatum demanding that the militias, which operate under the Iranian umbrella, integrate into the Iraqi military apparatus, a number of them are not complying, which could have implications for Iraqi sovereignty.

Iran Escalates: The Attack on the Saudi Oilfields

| September 23, 2019

The attack on the Saudi oilfields took the security establishments of both the kingdom and the US completely by surprise. The strike led to a 50% drop in Saudi oil production, which in turn prompted a surge in oil prices in the global market. The attack was a daring and aggressive leap forward on Iran’s part, and it has serious regional and geopolitical implications.

Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Puts US Commitments to the Test

| September 20, 2019

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the US is rushing to retaliate for a brazen, allegedly Iranian attack that severely damaged two of the kingdom’s key oil facilities. That is not to say that Saudi Arabia and/or the US will not retaliate in what could prove to be a game changer in the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Iran’s Radical Axis Is Intensifying Its Efforts to Build a War Machine Against Israel

| September 16, 2019

A shadow war raging between the Iranian-led radical Shiite axis and Israel has become public in recent weeks. This conflict is driven by Israel’s determination to prevent Iran from building attack capabilities in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.

What Happens to Israel If the US and Iran Go to War?

| September 12, 2019

On core matters of peace and security, two closely interrelated questions must be asked: 1. What precisely does Donald Trump have in mind regarding any potential armed conflict with Iran? 2. What might such a possibility portend for Israel, a US ally? Answers to these questions must extend beyond narrowly partisan simplifications. They should be nuanced and subtly overlapping. At a minimum, once a shooting war were underway, the Israeli armed forces (IDF) could become involved, possibly to a substantial degree. In a worst case scenario, clashes would involve unconventional weapons and directly affect Israel’s civilian population. The worst of the worst could involve nuclear ordnance.

The Day After an Iranian Nuclear Strike

| September 10, 2019

There is much discussion around the world about how to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. But few, if any, international bodies deal with the question of how to prepare for the day Iran achieves such capabilities, if that day has not already arrived.

How Sincere Is the Turkey-Iran Friendship?

| September 5, 2019

If the world press is anything to go by, the Turkey-Iran courtship is getting serious, and Russia is playing best man. The two countries’ strengthening ties are based on shared regional goals, the most prominent of which is Syria. But how sincere is the burgeoning relationship?