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Iran

Now that President Biden has been installed in the White House, the Islamic regime in Iran is hopeful that US sanctions on the country will soon be lifted. Lifting the sanctions, however, would tighten the regime’s grip on the Iranian people and provide a boost to its destabilizing operations across the Middle East. Biden must consider these issues before making a decision on rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal.
Shortly after the killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, 2020, the Iranian Supreme Leader announced that Soleimani would be succeeded by his deputy in Afghanistan, Esmail Qaani. Qaani is a somewhat enigmatic figure, as he served for years in Soleimani’s shadow. He is known, however, to be a religious extremist and an avowed enemy of the US and Israel. His main mission is to expand Iran’s ballistic missiles program and strengthen Shiite militia groups across the Middle East.
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is 81 years old and reportedly in declining health. The question of the succession will be decided by the regime’s Assembly of Experts, who will choose the new Supreme Leader following Khamenei’s death. Six individuals have emerged as possible successors.
The Israeli defense establishment is playing a central role in the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic while also carrying out its many daily security missions. Yet at the same time, it is in the middle of an intense race against time. The goal of this race is to adapt to the growing threats posed to the country’s home front, and to strategic targets such as ports and power plants, from the terror armies located on Israel’s doorstep—threats that will remain long after Israel is able to place the pandemic behind it.
Iran’s repeated threats to avenge the reported assassination of its chief nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was shot dead outside Tehran in November, raise the likelihood of Iranian armed action against Israeli targets. The threats also serve as a reminder that Iran has a long history of both sponsoring terrorism and actively engaging in it with its own personnel, and that it has spent decades building a global, highly active Shiite terror network.
Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has announced his candidacy for the Iranian presidential elections in June 2021. Dehghan has a toxic military background. In the 1980s he was responsible for the vicious crackdown on opponents of the Islamic regime, and he played a central role in the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut that killed hundreds. He may well become the new president of the Islamic regime as more military men are expected to run for the office.
In 2021, Iran will be preparing for a presidential election even as it faces an unprecedented economic crisis. Some conservatives argue that a military figure could turn the country around by virtue of his “jihadist spirit” and “military charisma.” While the allure of such a person as president is attractive to some in Tehran, structural impediments remain. The power of the Office of the Supreme Leader will prove a formidable obstacle in the path of any military figure who hopes to ascend to the presidency in the near term.

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