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Mahmoud Abbas

The Olmert-Livni "shelf agreement" concept for Israel-Palestinian peace is strategically illogical and tactically ill-considered. It has no foundation in negotiation theory; and incautiously assumes best case scenarios. It would not end the conflict because the Palestinians would proceed to bargain with Israel for additional concessions, and Israel inevitably would be forced to forgive the Palestinians on needed reforms.
Bush's new plan for Middle East peace is inadequate and rests on several faulty assumptions, including the beliefs that outside influences can change Palestinian society, Abu Mazen is the leader to bring about change, and the Palestinians will be "good" neighbors towards Israel. However, the realities of Palestinian society reflect a different picture. Israel's best bet is to wait for a better opportunity to attain stability.
Many have suggested that Israel's questionable military performance in the Second Lebanon War have impacted negatively on Israel's ability to deal with the Palestinians. However, in reality the recent war revealed that the tendency to see the conflict in broader terms, such as a clash of civilizations, is very much exaggerated.
At their recent meeting in Sharm-el-Sheik, Ariel Sharon and Abu Mazen announced the cessation of the hostilities that erupted in September 2000. Whether or not the ceasefire will hold remains, of course, to be seen. But its announcement certainly offers an opportunity for a retrospective, interim assessment of the IDF's operational performance during the past four-and-a-half years of violence. Its record, however, is no better than mixed.
Abu Mazen is seeking to amass power as quickly as possible, and his election as President of the Palestinian Authority is the easy part of his task. Sharing power with an elected legislature will prove much more difficult and dangerous, which is the reason why Abu Mazen will probably postpone such elections indefinitely. An Abu Mazen government, however, will be hard pressed to gain an overall monopoly of power.

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