PSCRP is launching a program of monthly monitoring of analytical publications from the world's leading universities and think tanks, which in one way or another affect the study of political processes in the former USSR.
Turkey
The Zangezur corridor is a proposed route that would link the main part of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan enclave through Armenian territory. Azerbaijan and Turkey support the project, but Armenia opposes it, fearing it might change the region’s borders. Iran views the corridor as a possible threat to its influence in the region.
- Prof. Efrat Aviv
- Paper No. 2276
The local elections in Turkey at the end of March 2024 had some surprising results. Economic factors were a decisive factor in the relatively low numbers for the ruling AK Party. Pensioners, a growing demographic sector in Turkey, were frequently mentioned during the AK Party’s election campaign but were neglected in practice, which was the main reason for the AK Party's failure. In both the near and distant term, it will now be impossible to ignore the rights of pensioners in Turkey.
Gagauzia’s elites, who remain in Russia’s sphere of influence, resist efforts by incumbent President Maia Sandu’s PAS party to bring Moldova into the EU and away from Russian influence.
- Prof. Efrat Aviv
- Paper No. 2201
Despite Turkey’s serious economic issues, massive inflation, and currency decline, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected to a third term as president, bringing his total tenure in office to 25 years. Erdoğan narrowly defeated opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round on May 28. Numerous factors explain Erdoğan’s success, including repressing the opposition, instilling fear, and dispersing economic benefits despite the challenging economic climate. Erdoğan’s personality is also a factor, as are social processes in Turkey. Still, none of these elements will be powerful enough to keep him in power if economic reserves continue to diminish.
- Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos
- Paper No. 2195
The future of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political career will be decided on May 14, when his People’s Alliance will compete with the Nation’s Alliance in a presidential and parliamentary election round. Opposition parties hope to give a democratic and pro-Western boost to Turkey. The country is polarized and thus might be ready to make major changes, especially after 20 years of a single administration. Still, Mediterranean geopolitics are unlikely to be significantly affected regardless of the outcome. This is also true of Israeli-Turkish relations.
- Prof. Efrat Aviv
- Paper No. 2194
Turkey is approaching the centenary of its founding, a significant date not only for its past but also for its future. With the May 14 election approaching, polls and commentators are beginning to discuss the post-Erdoğan era. The upcoming elections are critical and may bring about a historic change in Turkish politics. As things currently stand, no electoral outcome is likely to result in a return to the “golden age” of relations between Israel and Turkey.
- Burak Bekdil
- Paper No. 2145
Wildfires and floods in August revealed how weak Turkey is in the face of natural disasters, and how skewed are the priorities of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Once again, Turks failed to unite in a time of national sorrow.
- Burak Bekdil
- Paper No. 2141
The BMC affair is just one example of an Erdoğan business crony making hefty gains thanks to nepotism and favoritism.
- Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos
- Paper No. 2110
In July 2021, Israel expressed full support to the Republic of Cyprus in the wake of the unilateral reopening of the Varosha coastline by Turkey. Last year, it also showed solidarity with Athens during Greek-Turkish tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. While the tripartite partnership is progressing, Ankara is seeking to expand its footprint in the region and is pursuing a two-state solution in Cyprus. It is also applying a new foreign policy methodology to Greece while remaining adamant in its demands.