Putin’s Anti-Navalny Law

On June 4, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a law banning “individuals designated as ‘extremists’ from running for public office.” There is little doubt that the legislation is aimed primarily at opposition leader Alexei Navalny, now in prison, and whoever supports him.

Putin, Ukraine, and Russian Red Lines

Many are still wondering whether Vladimir Putin’s massive troop deployment in conflict zones in the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula in the spring of 2021 was preparation for eventual war and territorial gain or simply a public relations exercise meant to intimidate Ukraine and the West. The answer has to do with Putin’s main red line.

Russia, Belarus, and the Empire Debate

Emil Avdaliani
July 1, 2021
Paper No. 2085

Belarus is growing increasingly isolated and is pushing itself more and more into Russia's embrace. Moscow is taking the opportunity to cement Belarus as a buffer state against Western geopolitical influence. But contrary to the established analysis, unless there is a real chance of a pro-Western government being installed in Minsk, Russia is unlikely to push for any radical scenarios, including full integration.

Alexei Navalny and Public Dissent in Russia

The massive protests staged in Russia by supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny pose a serious threat to the country’s political elite. The Kremlin has a problem on its hands no matter what it does. Whether Navalny is kept in prison or released, his movement will be strengthened, and it has the potential to fuse to broader public dissent over Russia’s long-term economic performance and government ineffectiveness.

Did Putin “Vote” for Biden?

After four years of supporting Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to curry favor with Joe Biden days before the US presidential election. He did this despite Biden’s sharp anti-Russian rhetoric and amidst the Democrats’ four-year-long accusation that Trump had colluded with Russia (with Biden himself calling Trump “Putin’s puppy”). Putin will never allow personal preference of one leader over another to override Russian national interests, and it is those interests that will dictate his diplomatic approach to President Biden.

Nagorno-Karabakh: The Caucasus Time Machine

Lev Stesin
November 4, 2020
Paper No. 1799

No major power has attempted in earnest to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, and some have actively participated in keeping the situation ablaze. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been actively preparing for hostilities, but Armenia finds itself at a political and military disadvantage.

Putin’s Religious Soft Power Hits Jerusalem

Dr. Shay Attias
May 5, 2020
Paper No. 1550

The recent “backpacker deal,” the Crimean Peninsula annexation, and Russia’s Sochi Olympic Games are all examples of Vladimir Putin's global “smart power” strategy, which combines soft and hard power. In winning Russian sovereignty over the Jerusalem complex containing the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, he scored a significant soft power win.

With Putin’s Proposed Changes, Russia Begins Its Transition to One-Party Rule

Vladimir Putin’s proposed changes to the Russian constitution portend a shift toward one-party rule and lay out a framework by which he can continue to be a major power broker well beyond the end of his presidential tenure in 2024.

Putin’s Policies Are Not New

It has become fashionable to link Russian foreign policy moves of the past 20 years solely to President Vladimir Putin and his close associates. But what is viewed as innovative is in fact an intensification of much older policies that long preceded Putin’s rise to power.

Putin Clumsily Attempts to Exploit Gulf Tensions

Vladimir Putin sees an opportunity in escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, but his attempts to make the most of it have been clumsy and could be self-defeating.