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Cyber

Cyberspace, the Final Frontier

Israel’s young cyber industry is proving to be a remarkable success story. Between the National Cyber Bureau and the budding Cyber Defense Agency, Israel can protect its critical infrastructure and continue cementing its position as a global cybersecurity powerhouse.more

isis3

Islamic State Should be Wiped Out

August 11, 2016,

Prof. Efraim Inbar is wrong to argue that the West is better off with Islamic State organization maintaining its caliphate. On the contrary: Defeating IS and the horror it perpetuates requires nothing less than the elimination of its caliphate. Through control of territory, IS is able to inspire and train recruits, to direct terrorist attacks, and to demonstrate the West's inability to eradicate a pressing threat.more

isis2

Raqqa Delenda Est: Why Baghdadi’s “Caliphate” Should Be Destroyed

August 10, 2016,

While Iran remains the greatest threat to the region, the continued existence of IS fortifies rather than enervates Iran’s quest for hegemony. The destruction of IS should be the first stage in a campaign designed ultimately to isolate and contain Iran.more

medium-range-missiles

The New Threat of Very Accurate Missiles

August 9, 2016,

Precision-guided medium-range missiles, a relatively new technology, are beginning to proliferate in the Middle East. When they work as designed, they can deliver half a ton of high explosive to within meters of their targets. This means that for many targets, they are almost as effective as nuclear weapons.more

Iran-deal

The Iran Deal One Year Later: The Fuse Is Still Burning

One year later, it can clearly be said that the nuclear talks reversed power relations in Iran's favor, with the US forfeiting a historic opportunity to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability. Instead, the agreement left Iran with its full capability concerning enriched uranium – only at a reduced scale and subject to questionable monitoring. When the deal expires, Iran will have the ability to set up an extremely fast enrichment system, and its ability to reach the quantity of material required for a nuclear weapon will have increased tenfold. Iran also can continue to develop heavy long-distance missiles – without global opposition and without sanctions.more

gold

A Covenant of Shadows

The growing ties between Israel and the region's Sunni Arab states are a result of instability fueled by the growing power of Iran and Islamic State, and by US retrenchment. But unhindered public cooperation between Israel and these Arab states will necessitate an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.more

next

New at BESA Center

New Center Associates: Chorev, Hacohen, Lebel, Lerman and Mekel

August 25, 2016
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Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev, Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, Ambassador Arye Mekel, and Prof. Udi Lebel have joined the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies as research associates, over the past year.

BESA Center Associates Discuss Fighting Palestinian Terrorism and Securing Jerusalem

January 28, 2016
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In this round-table debate, BESA Center experts discuss Israel’s policy options in responding to Palestinian terrorism and reinforcing Israel’s hold in its capital city. They also discuss the expansion of Jerusalem, proposals for sharing Jerusalem, how to handle Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem, and Jewish prayer on Temple Mount.

Recent Conferences

The Day After Abbas

June 14, 2016
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Lectures delivered (in Hebrew) at a June conference on “The Day After Abbas: Wither the Palestinian Authority?” The conference dealt with the expected battle for succession in the PA, Israel’s diplomatic dilemmas, and likely international scenarios.

IDF Challenges

April 2, 2016
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How can and should the IDF adapt to meet new threats, and respond to changes in Israeli society? This was the focus of a day-long BESA Center conference in March 2016 (Hebrew).

Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

February 29, 2016
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February international conference on “Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean,” with participants from Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Turkey, NATO, the US and Israel. The conference was jointly convened by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and B'nai B'rith International, with the participation of leaders of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. The Greek Minister of Defense, Panos Kammenos, delivered a comprehensive and very forceful articulation of Greece’s view of the region.

Greek Defense Minister Speaks Out Forcefully in Alliance with Israel

February 21, 2016
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Text of the address delivered by Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos an international conference at the center on “Strategic Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean” (18.2.2016, co-sponsored by B'nai B'rith International). Kammenos offered a comprehensive and very forceful articulation of Greece’s views on the dangers of radical Islam, the problematic behavior of Turkey, and his country’s new alliance with Israel.

Newest Publications

The Destruction of Islamic State is a Strategic Mistake

August 2, 2016
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The West should seek the further weakening of Islamic State, but not its destruction. A weak but functioning IS can undermine the appeal of the caliphate among radical Muslims; keep bad actors focused on one another rather than on Western targets; and hamper Iran’s quest for regional hegemony.

Regional Implications of the Failed Coup d’État and Purges in Turkey

The fallout in terms of the regional balance of power from the failed coup d’état is bound to be significant. There is little to cheer, even if the timely conclusion of Israel's reconciliation with Turkey has so far spared Israel the traditional accusation of being behind the plot (and may even put Israeli diplomacy in a position to be of help in reducing the flames).

Erdogan’s Turkey Takes a Fork in the Road

The failed military coup in Turkey was most likely the swan song of the country's secular endeavor. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has a firmer hold on power, despite external and internal conflicts. Israel should remain wary of taking sides.

A Year After the JCPoA: An Interim Report on the Nuclear Deal with Iran

A year after it was finalized, the nuclear deal with Iran has clearly made the region and the world more dangerous, notwithstanding the temporary respite won in Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The Obama administration's advocacy of warmer relations with Tehran appears totally removed from realities on the ground. Iran is using its new legal position to obscure, rather than clarify, past activities and present inventories; work on ballistic missiles and on the acquisition of materials for Iran's non-conventional weapons arsenal continues apace; repression has worsened; regional subversion is at its peak; and exterminatory positions towards Israel are openly put forward. The JCPoA has in no way moderated Iran's stance, nor made it a legitimate member of the community of nations.

Lebanon 2006-2016: Deterrence is an Elusive Concept

In the next IDF operation in Lebanon, IDF ground forces will have to act decisively and quickly to counteract fire and inflict great losses on Hezbollah. If the IDF practices well ahead of the campaign; if Israeli leadership is clear in it's intentions; and if government orders are related to the reality on the battlefield -- the IDF should achieve a great deal.

Occupation Is Not the Problem

July 4, 2016
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The proposition that “occupation” is to blame for Palestinian terrorism defies history, reality, and logic. Israel’s control of the Palestinian population of the West Bank and Gaza has been virtually nonexistent for twenty years, ever since the 1995 interim agreement and the 1997 Hebron redeployment. Palestinian terrorism has increased not in response to the “occupation,” but in response to its ending.

New Paradigms in Peace Diplomacy

Occupation Is Not the Problem

July 4, 2016
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The proposition that “occupation” is to blame for Palestinian terrorism defies history, reality, and logic. Israel’s control of the Palestinian population of the West Bank and Gaza has been virtually nonexistent for twenty years, ever since the 1995 interim agreement and the 1997 Hebron redeployment. Palestinian terrorism has increased not in response to the “occupation,” but in response to its ending.

Why Israel Should Not Adopt Unilateral Initiatives

The moribund state of the peace process has prompted the suggestion of two opposing unilateral “solutions”: either Israeli withdrawal from, or the annexation of, parts of the West Bank. Neither would be wise policy.

Israel's Palestinian Dilemmas

May 3, 2016
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Israel has gradually come to realize that the Palestinians are neither a partner for peace nor capable of establishing a viable state. Therefore, Israel's recent governments have adopted a de facto conflict-management approach, rather than a conflict-resolution strategy. This prompts several questions. Should Israel speak explicitly about the dim prospects of a two-state solution, or play along with the illusory preferences and pretensions of the international community? Should Israel apply more “stick” than “carrot” to the hostile Palestinian Authority? Would the collapse of the Palestinian Authority serve Israel's interests? And how diplomatically active should Israel be on the Palestinian issue?

Israel’s Five Policy Options Regarding Judea and Samaria

March 29, 2016
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When Mahmoud Abbas departs from his post as leader of the Palestinian Authority, Israel will have to make strategic choices. This paper discusses five possible policy approaches, none of which is ideal. They are caretaker conflict resolution, creative friction, constructive chaos, unilateral withdrawal, and unilateral annexation. The caretaker option is probably the most feasible; unilateral withdrawal is the least. In every case, however, Israel will have to maintain a military presence in Judea and Samaria.

Is Jerusalem Divided?

Conflicts and clashes are not unique to Jerusalem. Israel needs to know why Jerusalem should be a priority; because it is seeking the return to Zion in all regions of the homeland! And if Israel does not insist on this, it will steadily withdraw inward, toward the coastal plain, and edge towards decline.

Why the Status Quo on the Temple Mount Needs to Change

October 19, 2015
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The fact that al-Aqsa is not in danger, does not mean that the status quo on the Temple Mount should remain constant. To the contrary, it must change on both strategic and moral grounds; and for the sake of true Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Proactive Redemption in Responding to Palestinian Violence

Those who view Israel as a stepping stone for redemption and as the Jewish national spiritual homeland will act differently in responding to Palestinian violence than those who view Israel merely as a safe haven. Thus, the government should do more than just approve security operations against the terrorists.

The Unrealistic European Peace Offensive

June 1, 2015
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While partition of the Land of Israel between the Jews and the Arabs living in this small part of the world is desirable, the Palestinian national movement has proved to be the wrong partner to implement partition and is largely responsible for the failure of the two state solution. Conflict management is the only approach that has a chance to minimize suffering on both sides and achieve a modicum of stability in a stormy Middle East.

Resetting the Mideast Peace Process

March 22, 2015
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Netanyahu should capitalize on his sweeping victory to reset the diplomatic table by outlining a pragmatic process that Israel can participate in, and to draw clear Israeli red lines as to acceptable contours of a solution

Israel Is Not Isolated

March 1, 2013
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Despite a perception to the contrary, Israel is not isolated in the international community. Since the end of the Cold War Israel has developed strong ties with most United Nations member states. Attempts to harm Israel through the BDS (boycotts, divestments, sanctions) campaign have failed. Israel’s strategic relationship with the United States should be further developed in order to ensure Israel’s important standing in the international community.

Israel-Palestinian Conflict

No One-Shot Solution to the Hamas Challenge

June 30, 2016
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The use of massive force in a “once-and-for-all” military operation cannot purge Hamas from Gaza because it has deep roots in Palestinian society. Israel’s only sensible option is to continue to employ a militarily modest and politically calibrated “mowing the grass” strategy, which is designed to occasionally knock back Hamas military capabilities and enhance deterrence for an admittedly limited period.

The ABCs of Judea and Samaria: Towards Breakdown?

April 8, 2016
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The three types of area jurisdiction in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) – A, B and C – were meant as a short-term fix until a real Israeli-Palestinian peace accord could be crafted. More than 20 years later, both sides have broadly infringed on these parameters. Israel regularly penetrates Area A for security reasons, while the PA (with EU support) is building illegally and dangerously in key parts of Area C that are critical to Israel. Israel should halt this encroachment with determination.

Hamas: A Social Welfare Government or War Machine?

December 1, 2015
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Hamas prides itself on having a reputation dedicated to the public welfare of Palestinians and for providing a variety of social services. The following study evaluates the veracity of this claim. The Hamas government in Gaza acts as another case study that highlights the disastrous leadership which plagued the Palestinian national movement since its inception.

Cool Heads Needed in the Fight against Palestinian Terrorism

While there is no doubt that Israel is facing a difficult security situation, the surge in Palestinian violence does not pose any existential threat to Israel. Israel has weathered longer and harsher waves of terrorism. Israeli leaders must keep things in proportion, and reject calls for “massive retaliation” that will not truly improve security and could make things worse.

The Lies of Saeb Erekat: How Palestinian Propaganda Warps the Truth and Undermines Peace Efforts

November 23, 2015
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An incendiary propaganda document replete with blatant lies and utter distortions of history penned by Saeb Erekat, recently sent to foreign media, exposes the futility of the Palestinian mindset, and reveals just how far the Palestinian leadership is from accepting the premises necessary for true peace with Israel.

Setting the Record Straight: Hajj Amin and the Nazis

November 3, 2015
2

Legacies of Hajj Amin al-Husseini’s work are still with us. The broadcasts of Radio Zeissen, the Mufti's propaganda station, resonate in the 1988 Hamas covenant, and indeed still reverberate throughout our region. So do the recurrent references to Nazi imagery and texts in the Palestinian public domain. To demand a proper historical reckoning is therefore not to "demonize" the Palestinian people but to treat them, for a change, as adults capable of coping with a culture of responsibility.

Myths, Facts, and Wishful Thinking in Responding to Palestinian Violence

The recent wave of terrorism has seen illusion peddlers take center stage. While some are true believers, others seek only to promote personal, political, potentially dangerous agendas. Regional realities mandate a different, more prudent approach.

The Palestinian Victimhood Narrative as an Obstacle to Peace

October 7, 2015
2

The false Palestinian narrative of one-sided victimhood is a major hindrance to all efforts in the direction of Israeli-Palestinian peace. Global actors need to help the Palestinians move beyond wallowing in self-pity and rituals of bashing Israel, and towards difficult compromises with Israel.

The Myth of Palestinian Centrality

July 7, 2014
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The “Palestinian cause” has been at the forefront of discourse on the Middle East for nearly a century. It has long formed the primary common concern of pan-Arab solidarity and its most effective rallying cry, yet neither the Arab states nor Palestinian leaders have truly acted in the interest of the “liberation of Palestine.”

Mowing the Grass: Israel’s Strategy for Protracted Intractable Conflict

December 1, 2013 and
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"Mowing the Grass" is Israel’s strategy for a protracted intractable conflict. Only after showing restraint in its military responses does Israel act to destroy enemy capabilities, hoping that occasional large-scale operations also have a temporary deterrent effect to create quiet along its borders.

Confronting Iran

The Iran Deal One Year Later: The Fuse Is Still Burning

One year later, it can clearly be said that the nuclear talks reversed power relations in Iran's favor, with the US forfeiting a historic opportunity to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability. Instead, the agreement left Iran with its full capability concerning enriched uranium – only at a reduced scale and subject to questionable monitoring. When the deal expires, Iran will have the ability to set up an extremely fast enrichment system, and its ability to reach the quantity of material required for a nuclear weapon will have increased tenfold. Iran also can continue to develop heavy long-distance missiles – without global opposition and without sanctions.

A Year After the JCPoA: An Interim Report on the Nuclear Deal with Iran

A year after it was finalized, the nuclear deal with Iran has clearly made the region and the world more dangerous, notwithstanding the temporary respite won in Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The Obama administration's advocacy of warmer relations with Tehran appears totally removed from realities on the ground. Iran is using its new legal position to obscure, rather than clarify, past activities and present inventories; work on ballistic missiles and on the acquisition of materials for Iran's non-conventional weapons arsenal continues apace; repression has worsened; regional subversion is at its peak; and exterminatory positions towards Israel are openly put forward. The JCPoA has in no way moderated Iran's stance, nor made it a legitimate member of the community of nations.

The Vienna Accord Only Postpones Confrontation with Iran

The Vienna agreement has made the situation more complex and dangerous, not less so. The conflict that will ensue will take place in conditions far worse (from a Western perspective) than before the agreement, pitting the West (and/or Israel) against a much-stronger Iran.

Converging Enemy Threats to Israel

May 28, 2015
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Israeli strategic planners must beware the converging twin hazards of Iranian nuclear weapons and Palestinian statehood.

Israel Cannot Accept the Emerging Accord between the US and Iran

An agreement that would allow Iran to maintain a full nuclear fuel cycle would be far worse than no agreement, and could force Israel to respond independently

ISIS

Islamic State Should be Wiped Out

August 11, 2016
0

Prof. Efraim Inbar is wrong to argue that the West is better off with Islamic State organization maintaining its caliphate. On the contrary: Defeating IS and the horror it perpetuates requires nothing less than the elimination of its caliphate. Through control of territory, IS is able to inspire and train recruits, to direct terrorist attacks, and to demonstrate the West's inability to eradicate a pressing threat.

Raqqa Delenda Est: Why Baghdadi’s “Caliphate” Should Be Destroyed

August 10, 2016
0

While Iran remains the greatest threat to the region, the continued existence of IS fortifies rather than enervates Iran’s quest for hegemony. The destruction of IS should be the first stage in a campaign designed ultimately to isolate and contain Iran.

The Destruction of Islamic State is a Strategic Mistake

August 2, 2016
0

The West should seek the further weakening of Islamic State, but not its destruction. A weak but functioning IS can undermine the appeal of the caliphate among radical Muslims; keep bad actors focused on one another rather than on Western targets; and hamper Iran’s quest for regional hegemony.

The ISIS Challenge in Syria; Implications for Israeli Security

May 8, 2016
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A study of the strategic goals and military performance of ISIS; the relative strength of its opponents; the reactions of those opponents, especially Iran, to possible ISIS gains; and the threat to Israeli national security posed by ISIS. As long as Iran does not infringe on Israel’s “red lines” (regarding the transfer of advanced weaponry and terrorist bases on its borders) Israel should remain militarily neutral in the conflict with ISIS.

Libya: The Next Frontier?

February 29, 2016
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As Islamic State (IS) continues to suffer reverses in Syria and Iraq, great pressure can and should be brought to bear against it in Libya, where IS dominance has the potential to threaten vital Western interests. Forceful foreign intervention may be required to protect the central Mediterranean from IS encroachment.

Does ISIS Pose a WMD Threat?

The risk of ISIS employing chemical, biological, and radiological warfare agents is real. In fact, ISIS already has attacked with chemical agents. ISIS has mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are assisting in the development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas, alongside foreign experts. It also has reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from Iraq to Syria.

How Dangerous is ISIS to Israel?

September 7, 2015
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It is misplaced to view ISIS as posing an independent serious strategic challenge. Several analyses of the threat ISIS poses to Israel seem to be unnecessary alarmist.

Syrian Civil War

Chemical Weapons Could Change the Game in Syria

The Syrian regime unleashed full military grade chemical weapons against IS several weeks ago, a move that occasioned little response from the wider world. The assault demonstrated that the dismantling of the Syrian chemical arsenal has not been fulfilled. If repeated, the attack might precipitate a dangerous escalation of the conflict in which IS accelerates its own pursuit of WMDs.

The Syrian Civil War: An Interim Balance Sheet

April 6, 2016
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The desire of the international community to end the Syrian civil war is offset by the inability of any individual party to enforce its preferred solution. The conflict, which is likely to continue for some time, has solidified the centrality of Russia and Iran in regional affairs. Israel’s options are limited.

Syria's Unraveling Gives Way to New Regional Order

Russia's increased deployment in Syria, and Iran and Hezbollah's tightening grip on areas just north of the Israel-Syria border, may soon change regional realities irrevocably. More than ever, Israel must remain determined in its efforts to prevent Hezbollah from obtaining game-changing weapons.

Russian Ambitions, and Israeli Opportunities, in the Partition of Syria

October 22, 2015
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There is a contradiction between the ultimate purposes of Russia and Iran in their intervention in Syria. Putin’s concern for Assad's survival could give Israel some policy leverage, if Israel astutely navigates its way through the situation. This means that Israel should not be tempted to support Saudi-led efforts to unseat Assad or otherwise bring about a decisive outcome in Syria’s civil war.

Syria's Chemical Weapon Obfuscations

The reluctance of the international community to act forcibly regarding undeclared Syrian chemical weapon capabilities is a very bad sign. It raises doubts about full implementation of intelligence-gathering operations and effective monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program.

Line in the Sand

The strike against Hezbollah last week clarifies to Israel’s enemies that there are red lines, and anyone crossing them must take into account Israel’s response.

Why the Hezbollah Clash Matters

February 1, 2015
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As the Assad regime is losing its grip over the country, Iran and Hezbollah gain a greater ability to establish a new base of operations against Israel in southern Syria.

Russia

The Return of the Russian Bear to the Middle East

June 5, 2016
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This study looks at the aggressive new posture in Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin, in the wake of its intervention in Syria and the Crimean peninsula.

Putin's "Sacred Mission" in Syria

March 27, 2016
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Russia's intervention in Syria cannot be fully explained by strategic or economic factors. Russian political culture, which has been permeated since the fifteenth century by a messianic vision of apocalyptic redemption, has long been a significant guiding factor in the decision-making of Russia's leaders.

The Russians Are Leaving Syria. Why the Surprise?

The partial departure of Russian forces from Syria reflects Vladimir Putin's achievement of several well-defined goals, including the stabilization of Bashar al-Assad and the bolstering of Russia's global diplomatic position. The resultant balance of power in Syria gives Israel time and space with which to bolster its defenses.

Russian Ambitions, and Israeli Opportunities, in the Partition of Syria

October 22, 2015
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There is a contradiction between the ultimate purposes of Russia and Iran in their intervention in Syria. Putin’s concern for Assad's survival could give Israel some policy leverage, if Israel astutely navigates its way through the situation. This means that Israel should not be tempted to support Saudi-led efforts to unseat Assad or otherwise bring about a decisive outcome in Syria’s civil war.

The Russian-Iranian Gambit in Syria

The Russian-Iranian gambit in Syria will only inflame the volatile situation in the war-torn country. Sunni-Alawite animosity runs too deep to foster any hope for compromise. Israel must remain vigilant, and prevent terrorists from getting advanced weapons.

US-Israel Relations

Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East

July 26, 2016
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The adverse implications of US withdrawal from the Middle East are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East.

Trends in US Congressional Support for Israel

June 6, 2016 and
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While congressional support for Israel has historically transcended the partisan divide, Republicans and Democrats are growing less cooperative with regard to the means by which to express that support. The authors term this development as “congressional dysergia.” Tensions between the executive branch and Congress are growing as well, as exhibited in conflicts between the Republican-dominated Congress and President Obama.

Consequences of American Retreat from the Middle East

February 24, 2016
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The American retreat from the Middle East signals weakness, and encourages an Iranian quest for regional hegemony that was bolstered by the P5+1 nuclear deal. The most dangerous consequence of current American foreign policy in the region is the likelihood of nuclear proliferation. Moreover, the current American approach allows for Russian encroachment in the region, which enhances the power of the radical axis led by Iran. It also opens the way for the ‘Finlandization’ of the Gulf and the Caspian basin by Iran. US weakness in the Middle East inevitably will have ripple effects in other parts of the globe.

Obama and Israel: The Final Year

February 17, 2016
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Israel needs a more active and aggressive diplomatic strategy to thwart what seems to be an escalating campaign of pressure from the international community on the Palestinian issue; a campaign that President Obama can be expected to lead in his final months in office.

Turkish-Israeli Relations

Regional Implications of the Failed Coup d’État and Purges in Turkey

The fallout in terms of the regional balance of power from the failed coup d’état is bound to be significant. There is little to cheer, even if the timely conclusion of Israel's reconciliation with Turkey has so far spared Israel the traditional accusation of being behind the plot (and may even put Israeli diplomacy in a position to be of help in reducing the flames).

Erdogan’s Turkey Takes a Fork in the Road

The failed military coup in Turkey was most likely the swan song of the country's secular endeavor. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has a firmer hold on power, despite external and internal conflicts. Israel should remain wary of taking sides.

The Turkish-Israeli Reconciliation: A Balance Sheet

The Turkish-Israeli reconciliation – while raising legitimate moral questions – yielded terms very much in Israel’s favor, compared to where things stood recently. Legal threats have been averted, Turkish pressure over the siege of Gaza has been lifted, and the prospects for full Israeli participation in NATO activities are significantly brighter.

The Importance of Interests in Israel-Turkey Reconciliation

The Israel-Turkey reconciliation deal boils down to mutually beneficial interests; not trust, and certainly not sympathy. This deal will bolster Israel's security as well as its international standing, making the price worthwhile.

Turkey - America’s Unacknowledged Problem

January 4, 2015
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Turkey is formally a NATO ally. But Erdogan-led Turkey has not behaved as an ally or a friend of the US for years. It is a mystery why the Obama Administration refuses to acknowledge this.

Obama’s Best Friend? The Alarming Evolution of US-Turkish Relations

May 1, 2013
2

Shifts in Turkey’s domestic political orientation have led to a change in Ankara’s perceptions of its foreign policy roles and capabilities. The US has misunderstood and largely ignored this shift, failing to understand the implications of Turkey’s transformation under the AKP. A strong and comprehensive policy towards Turkey is long overdue.

Turkish Foreign Policy in the Twenty-First Century

September 1, 2012
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Inspired by Foreign Minister Davutoğlu’s Strategic Depth doctrine, Turkey has pursued a more active role in the Middle East and surrounding region. Bucking the trend of Turkey’s secular Kemalist legacy, the government seeks to revive the glory of the Ottoman Empire and establish itself as a global power. The study examines the reasons behind Turkey’s shift in policy, discusses Turkey’s role in the “Arab Spring,” and assesses regional and global ramifications.

Eastern Mediterranean

The Mediterranean as a Strategic Environment: Learning a New Geopolitical Language

This study argues that it is time to let go of the old colonial concept, the “Middle East,” and re-learn to think in Mediterranean terms. The Eastern Mediterranean has become a key area for global security, with two dangerous challenges, and an important opportunity. The challenges are the regional refugee crisis due to chaotic conditions in Syria, Libya and beyond; and the growing hold upon Mediterranean shores of totalitarian Islamism in its various forms. The opportunity lies in energy cooperation between Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Greece and Cyprus (with a role for Italy). This is not an effort to isolate Turkey, but rather to create a regional balance of power, in which Turkey could also play a role once that country’s leadership matures and moderates.

A New Geopolitical Bloc is Born in the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel, Greece and Cyprus

February 16, 2016
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From an Israeli perspective, the recent strengthening of alliance ties with Greece and Cyprus constitutes a win-win situation. A new geopolitical bloc is emerging that has military and political significance, and stands as a counterweight to Turkish ambitions. Stronger Israeli relations with Greece and Cyprus may also serve to encourage Turkey to show more flexibility in negotiations regarding normalization of ties between Ankara and Jerusalem.

Israel’s Emerging Relations in the Eastern Mediterranean

December 8, 2015
1

The flourishing new relationship between Israel and her two Hellenic neighbors in the eastern Mediterranean – Greece and Cyprus – is important on its own merits. But equally important, the Israel-Greece-Cyprus alliance seeks to block Turkey’s ambitions of regional hegemony, while at the same time offering Ankara a key place in the new Mediterranean political order, if and when she comes to her senses.

Israel-Greece Relations

September 14, 2015
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This study focuses on the strengthening of Israeli-Greek relations, especially since 2010. The enhanced ties between the two countries allows for the emergence of a new pro-Western geopolitical bloc in the eastern Mediterranean. (Hebrew)

The New Strategic Equation in the Eastern Mediterranean

August 28, 2014
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For centuries, the Mediterranean Sea was the main arena for international interactions, before it was replaced by the Atlantic Ocean and subsequently by the Pacific. Nevertheless, as the historical meeting place between East and West, the East Mediterranean was the focus of significant superpower competition during the Cold War and still has strategic significance.

Security in the Gulf

Sailing through the Straits: The Meaning for Israel of Restored Saudi Sovereignty over Tiran and Sanafir Islands

The fact that Saudi Arabia has now undertaken to uphold in practice the obligations assumed by Egypt under its peace treaty with Israel, means that Israel's place in the region is no longer perceived by Arab leader Saudi Arabia as an anomaly to be corrected. This is a far cry from normalization of Saudi relations with Israel, but it is nevertheless a welcome ray of light, demonstrating the benefits of cooperation and coordination in a region beset by violence.

Domestic and Regional Implications of Escalated Saudi-Iran Conflict

January 10, 2016
0

By executing a prominent Shiite leader, the Saudi King and his son the Deputy Crown Prince sent a strong signal to Iran, to the kingdom’s beleaguered Shiite minority, and to the world. To its Iranian Shiite rival, Sunni Riyadh was saying that it would absolutely not tolerate intervention in its internal affairs. It was telling its own Shiites that it would not allow “Arab Spring”-like dissent. And to the world, Salman and Muhammad were signaling that the Saudis were growing into their new role as a defender and leader of the Sunni Muslim countries; especially since the Obama administration appears to be siding with Iran.

Saudi Succession: The Sudayris Return

January 26, 2015
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The passing of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and the smooth accession of King Salman marks the return of the Sudaryi family to leadership and the eventual rise of the grandchildren of founder King Abd al-Aziz

Missile Defense

The New Threat of Very Accurate Missiles

August 9, 2016
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Precision-guided medium-range missiles, a relatively new technology, are beginning to proliferate in the Middle East. When they work as designed, they can deliver half a ton of high explosive to within meters of their targets. This means that for many targets, they are almost as effective as nuclear weapons.

Israel’s Air and Missile Defense During the 2014 Gaza War

February 11, 2015
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The Israeli Air Defense Command deployed an efficient defense array against the rocket launchers in the last operation in the Gaza Strip. The operation also uncovered the gaps in the Israeli defense system that require corrective actions.

The Future of Egypt

Egypt and the Threat of Islamic Terror

January 1, 2014,
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Egypt’s new rulers are faced with a terror problem emanating from the Sinai, led by radical jihad groups. The US and international community must support the Egyptian regime to prevent Egypt from turning into the next Syria.

Welcome Back to Mubarak's Egypt

July 4, 2013
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The latest chapter in the Egyptian Revolution is nothing more than a return to the military dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. Egypt’s troubles may only be beginning.

Egypt’s Army Will Not Intervene

March 12, 2013
2

Hopes or expectations that the Egyptian military will intervene in the deteriorating political and security crisis are probably misguided.

Morsi’s Egypt and Ahmadinejad’s Iran: Much Ado Over Next to Nothing

February 10, 2013
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Morsi’s hosting Ahmadinejad signals a potential improvement in ties between Egypt and Iran. This move will backfire, as ultimately Morsi needs the US and Gulf countries more than they need him.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Its True Intentions Towards Israel

December 10, 2012
0

The Brotherhood sees Israel as a strategic threat and has aggressively lobbied Morsi to strengthen Egyptian military presence in Sinai. The anti-Israel rhetoric emanating from senior Brotherhood leaders must be taken seriously.