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September 20, 2023

The current Azerbaijani military operation in Karabakh was framed in Baku as anti-terrorist, since it came as a reaction to a series of subversive actions, including the killing 19 September of 6 Azerbaijanis by Armenian separatist paramilitary units. As far as Armenia is concerned, the further developments might depend on how the current government in Yerevan plays its cards and whether it will survive in case of the defeat (as it looks like happen now) of the Karabakh separatists. A most intriguing, among other questions, is: whether it will deepen Yerevanโ€™s dependence from Moscow? Or could it be Armenia's path towards independence from Russia?
On August 23rd, a plane crashed, carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch and the founder of the private military corporation "Wagner." Among the victims was Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian officer who played a pivotal role in the formation of this semi-public, semi-private army. His call sign, "Wagner," lent its name to this organization, which, over the course of nine years, transformed into a tool of Russian power politics. Regardless of who was responsible for the plane's destruction, this event aligns with an overarching trend: the diminishing influence of Z-propaganda radicals, who perceive the Russian government's actions as passive and advocate for a more assertive policy towards Ukraine. This call also encompasses the notion of mobilizing Russian society on a comprehensive scale.

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