July 31, 2024

What core intelligence challenges did Israel fail to meet in the lead-up to October 7? Israeli intelligence, in concert with policymakers, missed the disruptive terrorist โ€œinnovationโ€ in Hamasโ€™s strategy toward Israel. This error was facilitated by a related failure to implement existing intelligence across organizational levels. The calamitous intelligence failure that culminated in the events of October 7 illustrates Yakov Ben-Haimโ€™s info-gap theory, which states that commitment to a policy paradoxically increases when the level of what needs to be known is lowered. This allows for the growth of a dangerous tolerance for gaps in information. In Israelโ€™s case, this tolerance blinded the intelligence services and policymakers to disruptive changes in Hamasโ€™s intentions, capabilities and application of resources.

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