- Stefanie Kirchweger
- Paper No. 2293
What core intelligence challenges did Israel fail to meet in the lead-up to October 7? Israeli intelligence, in concert with policymakers, missed the disruptive terrorist โinnovationโ in Hamasโs strategy toward Israel. This error was facilitated by a related failure to implement existing intelligence across organizational levels. The calamitous intelligence failure that culminated in the events of October 7 illustrates Yakov Ben-Haimโs info-gap theory, which states that commitment to a policy paradoxically increases when the level of what needs to be known is lowered. This allows for the growth of a dangerous tolerance for gaps in information. In Israelโs case, this tolerance blinded the intelligence services and policymakers to disruptive changes in Hamasโs intentions, capabilities and application of resources.