EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: It may be time to take a step back to consider the implications of the new state of affairs ushered in by the Abraham Accords, which changed Israel’s strategic landscape. The Trump era has passed, and subsequent developments encourage such reflection. Bahrain rejected a visit from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu unless he also visited the UAE on the same trip. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman continues to refuse to recognize Israel on the grounds that the Palestinian question must be resolved first. The next in line to the Saudi throne, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, prefers to wait to assess the approach taken by the new US administration—and he is, in any case, well aware that only 30% of the Saudi population responds positively to the notion of commercial exchanges with Israel. These regional states do not necessarily want to reverse the process that has been set in motion, but might prefer to take matters more slowly.
From Israel’s point of view, one must salute the masterful tactical coup that made the Accords possible. They took the Palestinians, with their decades-long hostage-taking of the Arab world, as well as the EU and its mantra of menaces to the two-state solution, out of the game. The Israeli left, which remains prisoner to the Oslo process despite its failure, is now relegated to the margins.
Still, the success of the Accords will ultimately depend on the signature of Saudi Arabia. The participation of Bahrain and the UAE were trial balloons sent up by Riyadh. Those states would never have undertaken anything with Israel without the kingdom’s tacit agreement.
With that said, it must be acknowledged that the obtaining of the benevolence of Riyadh, guardian of Islam’s sacred sites, is itself a major development. Even now, ahead of a prospective signature by the Saudis, the Accords represent an important strategic development on the regional level: Israel now has local military allies in the face of Iranian imperialism, holy war, and threats of extermination.