Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham

(Ph.D. Tel Aviv University) Former senior analyst in IDF military intelligence and the Ministry of Defense. Specializes in chemical and biological warfare in the Middle East and worldwide.

Full CV

List of Publications

Email:[email protected]

Phone:972-3-696-8953

The Syrian Sarin Attacks of August 2013 and April 2017

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | April 26, 2017

The sarin attacks in Syria of August 2013 and April 2017 resemble one another closely. They reflect a strategic mode that might be repeated yet again by Assad, as long as he remains fully backed by Russia and Iran. At the same time, the geopolitical shift suggested by the recent US military response in Syria marks a desirable turn with consequential implications regarding the ongoing relationships among the US, Syria, Russia, and Iran.

Iran Is Progressing Towards Nuclear Weapons Via North Korea

Lt. Col. (ret.) Dr. Refael Ofek and Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | February 28, 2017

This analysis argues that Iran is steadily making progress towards a nuclear weapon and is doing so via North Korea. Iran is unwilling to submit to a years-long freeze of its military nuclear program as stipulated by the July 2015 Vienna Nuclear Deal. North Korea is ready and able to provide a clandestine means of circumventing the deal, which would allow the Iranians to covertly advance that nuclear program. At the same time, Iran is likely assisting in the upgrading of certain North Korean strategic capacities.

Sanctioning the Syrians

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | January 23, 2017

The recent US sanctions against 18 senior Syrian officers for chemical weapons (CW) employment seem to represent little more than a last-ditch compensation for the hands-off record of the outgoing Obama administration. However, despite their poor timing, these sanctions are considerably more meaningful than they might at first appear.

Chemical Weapons in Syria, Iraq and Beyond: Assessment and Implications

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | December 12, 2016

Chemical weapons (CW) continue to be employed frequently in Syria and Iraq. While the scale of attacks has been relatively minor so far, the possibility remains that the Islamic State (IS) might attempt a high-impact WMD attack. Hezbollah, too, which is present in both Syria and Lebanon, might wish to be – or indeed, already may be – equipped with CW

Chemical Weapons Could Change the Game in Syria

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | June 7, 2016

The Syrian regime unleashed full military grade chemical weapons against IS several weeks ago, a move that occasioned little response from the wider world. The assault demonstrated that the dismantling of the Syrian chemical arsenal has not been fulfilled. If repeated, the attack might precipitate a dangerous escalation of the conflict in which IS accelerates its own pursuit of WMDs.

Does ISIS Pose a WMD Threat?

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | December 13, 2015

The risk of ISIS employing chemical, biological, and radiological warfare agents is real. In fact, ISIS already has attacked with chemical agents. ISIS has mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are assisting in the development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas, alongside foreign experts. It also has reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from Iraq to Syria.

Syria’s Chemical Weapon Obfuscations

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | August 7, 2015

The reluctance of the international community to act forcibly regarding undeclared Syrian chemical weapon capabilities is a very bad sign. It raises doubts about full implementation of intelligence-gathering operations and effective monitoring of the Iranian nuclear program.

Has Syria’s Chemical Weapons Arsenal Truly Been Dismantled?

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | June 29, 2014

June 30 marks the due date for the complete disarmament of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. Although Assad may have relinquished the majority of his chemical weapons stockpile, the regime most probably possesses additional ‘undeclared’ facilities.

Will Syria’s Chemical Weapons Arsenal Be Eliminated?

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | March 4, 2014

Efforts to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons are running months behind schedule. Even if Assad abides by his commitment, Syria’s equally dangerous biological weapon stocks will remain.

Syria’s Chemical Weapons: Is Disarmament Possible?

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham | September 24, 2013

Disarming Syria’s chemical arsenal will be a big challenge. The US-Russia timetable seems too condensed, even if good will is assumed. Syria possesses a huge chemical weapons arsenal, and is likely to further develop biological weapons, which the US-Russia accord does not discuss.

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The Oslo Disaster

September 4, 2016 Prof. Efraim Karsh

The Oslo diplomatic process is the starkest strategic blunder in Israel’s history and one of the worst calamities ever to have afflicted Israelis and Palestinians. Twenty three years after its euphoric launch on the White House lawn, the Oslo ‘peace process’ has substantially worsened the position of both parties, and made the prospects for peace and reconciliation ever more remote.

The Return of the Russian Bear to the Middle East

June 5, 2016 Dr. Shai Har-Zvi

This study looks at the aggressive new posture in Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin, in the wake of its intervention in Syria and the Crimean peninsula.

New Permutations in the Mideast “Game of Camps”

January 17, 2016 Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman

A review of the four rival camps into which the Middle East is today divided. 1. Iran with her proxies and allies; 2. Salafi Jihadists, currently dominated by the so-called Islamic State; 3. Muslim Brotherhood movement in its various manifestations, including Hamas, supported by Qatar and by Erdogan’s Turkey; 4. The “forces of stability” — all those who fear and resist the rise of the first three camps, with Israel an active and important player in this latter camp.

Perfect Storm: The Implications of Middle East Chaos

July 5, 2015 Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror

The storms now convulsing the Middle East are civilizational shifts of historical proportions. Anyone from the outside trying to influence these regional upheavals in a positive direction will find the task very difficult. Israel must focus narrowly on the greatest threat looming in its vicinity — the Iranian drive for nuclear weaponry.

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham