THE GAZA TERROR OFFENSIVE:
“The Ceasefire War”
16 July – 16 October 2026

The increased delay between updates is because the situation is more or less stagnant. Events occur, but they are largely repetitive and changes in the situation are small. All the participants have reduced the intensity of their efforts, with occasional brief and small escalations, and are playing the long game. However, tension remains as a new major escalation is anticipated—especially in the Iranian arena, but also in Lebanon and Gaza. Over the past few days, there have also been reports that the Israeli military is preparing for a possible escalation of Palestinian attacks in Judea and Samaria – perhaps even by the Palestinian Authority itself.

Israel-Sri Lanka Defense Ties

Documents recently declassified in Israel have disclosed the gravity of an arms deal that came into effect between Sri Lanka and Israel in the mid-1980s, a turbulent period during which Tamil militant separatism was severely threatening the short-lived political-economic prosperity of J.R Jayawardene’s government in Colombo. While the relationship between the two countries has long been complex, their defense collaboration has remained nearly constant.

Beyond Ports and Railways:
The India–Israel–Italy Technology Triangle and the Future of IMEC

The Mattei Plan and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) should not be treated as separate but overlapping corridors. Rather, they represent complementary layers of an emerging Indo-Mediterranean connectivity architecture. IMEC provides the east–west spine linking India, the Gulf, and Europe while the Mattei Plan extends European connectivity southward into Africa. Italy sits at the intersection of the two, leveraging its Mare Nostrum strategy to link the economic zones of the Indo-Pacific with those of the Euro-Atlantic by placing an EU leg in IMEC. Within this triangle, India provides technological scale and the eastern anchor, Israel brings a critical security and technological hinge in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Italy ensures a European institutional gateway and linkage to Africa through the Mattei Plan. As geopolitical realignments reshape global trade, connectivity, and data flows, IMEC is emerging as more than a network of ports, railways, and logistics infrastructure. The corridor’s long-term strategic significance will also depend on the digital architecture that underpins it: secure data networks, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, critical infrastructure protection, and resilient technological supply chains. The potential emergence of an India–Israel–Italy technology triangle is a critical component of IMEC’s future development.

Hamas Beyond Gaza: The Strategic Significance of the Greece-Cyprus Case

The investigation into a suspected Hamas network operating across Cyprus, Greece, and several other countries highlights a dimension of the Hamas threat that deserves greater attention. Hamas has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to adapt its organizational structure to changing circumstances. As Israel continues to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure and weaken its territorial control in Gaza, the terrorist organization may become increasingly reliant on its external networks. For Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, this possibility requires closer attention to cross-border intelligence cooperation, terrorist financing, and the infrastructure that allows Hamas to regenerate beyond its traditional territorial base.

BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Digest No. 36 (September 2026)

In September 2026, the PSCRP publications dealt mostly with the issues of geopolitical (re)alignments (in the Baltics and the South Caucasus) and the electoral process (in Russia and Kazakhstan).

Can Israel Connect to Syria’s New Oil Routes?

Syria is reviving plans for major oil pipelines linking Iraq and other Gulf oil producers to the Mediterranean Sea. At first glance, such projects may appear to compete with Israel’s ambitions to become an important link in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This assumption is misleading. While railway and highway projects may naturally compete directly with one another for freight routes, energy pipelines operate with a different logic. Once established, oil and gas pipelines (and future hydrogen pipelines) tend to move continuously through several parallel routes, with additional pipelines providing resilience rather than displacing one another. Israel should not view Syria’s emergence as an oil transit state as a threat in the same way it may view competing regional railway corridors proposed by Turkey. The more useful question is how Israel can ensure future access to, or connection with, the regional oil network that is developing around it. Options may include a physical connection to a proposed Iraqi oil pipeline via Jordan, access to direct maritime deliveries from Baniyas or Tripoli to Ashkelon, or reciprocal energy arrangements in which Israeli gas and electricity flow to Syria and Lebanon while Israel gains access to their emerging oil supply routes. The goal is not to force oil corridors to go through Israel, but to make sure that the new regional oil network does not bypass it completely.

BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Digest No. 35 (August 2026)

In August 2026, PSCRP analytical materials were largely focused on the developments in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Russia. The PSCRP team provides an overview of the year that has passed since the joint declaration was signed in Washington between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. In the same vein, the PSCRP team analyzes the role of the Middle Corridor, officially known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

The 2006 Origins of Israel’s Multi-domain
Post-October 7 Warfare Strategy

Israel’s failed 2006 war against Hezbollah spurred IDF doctrinal and force structure changes that were ultimately embodied in its Momentum Multiyear Plan of 2020. The resulting full spectrum multi-domain warfare strategy contributed to Israel’s 2024 military success against Iran’s strongest proxy. Jerusalem’s Northern Arrows campaign devastated Hezbollah’s military, unleashing forces that upended Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy and compromised the Islamic Republic’s survival.

Balochistan Has Become a Nightmare for Pakistan and Iran

Manish Rai
August 27, 2026
Paper No. 2406

Increasingly well-coordinated and deadly rebel assaults on Pakistani security forces in Balochistan have revealed the extreme vulnerability of the Pakistani military in the province. The enormity of the territory, lack of local support, inability to commit sufficient forces, and porous borders with Iran and Afghanistan render the Baloch challenge to the Pakistani army nearly impossible to counter. The violence is spilling into the Sistan and Balochistan province of Iran, which is experiencing its own Baloch insurgency.

Iranian Cyber Sabotage Is Targeting US Water Systems

In a coordinated offensive, cyber actors directly linked to the Iranian regime recently executed a series of targeted digital intrusions against water infrastructure in the US. This aggressive campaign focused on the operational technology networks of municipal drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities across seven to twelve states. Unlike traditional cyber espionage campaigns, this unconventional and widespread operation was explicitly designed for real-world physical sabotage of a vital civilian resource.

Homepage