In April 2024, the PSCR program’s materials covered the conflictual dynamics in and around Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Estonia.
Velvl Chernin analyzes the content, timing, and potential significance of the presidential decree “On the territories of the Russian Federation historically inhabited by Ukrainians” issued by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Chernin considers this “an attempt to change the vector of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation” by addressing the potential ethnic dimension of the war, an attempt to appeal to historical-ethnographic, symbolic, and identarian resources shared by the Ukrainians residing in Russia and other local ethnic minority groups. Сhernin continues to explore the issue of identity, analyzing the concepts of the “Russian world” and the so-called “Russian compatriots,” namely, the usage of these tools for the justification of militant revanchism and the apparent contradictions with the enforced Russification inside the Russian state. The author underlines that these developments have also divided Russian opposition into those who advocate democratization of the unitary Russia and those who propose ethnic delimitations. The Ukrainian part of the PSCRP monthly activities is concluded by the paper analyzing Moroccan arms supplies to Ukraine against the background of that country’s possible conflict with Algeria and military cooperation with the US.
Talgat Kaliyev has explained and advocated the need for the change of the Kazakhstani coat of arms, against the background of the country president’s remarks about this issue. Kaliyev argues that a national coat of arms should be easily understandable and simple to draw – which cannot be said now about the Kazakhstani state symbol, according to the author. Also, the change of the symbolism should mean an ultimate departure from the Soviet times, of which the current coat of arms is still reminiscent.
Considering the constant importance and relevance of the conflicts in the South Caucasus, this month, the PSCRP authors have published three materials focusing on the Armenian political and security development. Ariel Kogan analyzes the joint statement of the Armenian and Azerbaijani border delimitation commissions; Armenia has agreed to return four Azerbaijani villages in the Tavush region under its neighbor’s control. This move might be seen as an important step toward the peace treaty between the two adversaries on the basis of the 1991 Alma-Ata Declarations. In agreeing to these conditions, Armenia is indirectly (and, probably, unwillingly) supporting Azerbaijan’s argument of the “just war.” The success of negotiations, applauded by the US and the EU, is a loss for both Russia (which has to withdraw its peacekeeping mission) and France (which, as Armenia’s main “protector,” profits from the escalation and sees de-escalation as a victory of Azerbaijan and Turkey).
Trying to reorient its foreign policy from Russia which proved to be an unreliable ally, to other international actors, Armenia is now, however, under the simultaneous pressure from the West (championed by France) and from Iran. Andrey Kazantsev-Vaisman addresses this strategic problem and claims that “theoretically, Iran could demand compensation from Armenia for cooperation with the West, such as handing over (…) important technologies. Avoiding such a situation (…) is a crucial task of Armenian foreign policy at this stage.” This issue becomes especially relevant “in the context of Iran’s growing conflict with the United States and Israel.”
Providing more details on the Iranian-Armenian cooperation, Alexander Grinberg notes that Iran is concerned with the strengthening of the Azerbaijani position (since Azerbaijan is its real and potential rival), the growing intensity of the Armenian links to the West (which IRI sees as potentially ushering in the NATO presence), and the looming rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan (because “Tehran needs the conflict to be perpetuated to use it as a pretext for its meddling”). Grinberg urges for the scrutinized check of the Armenian pivoting to the West since “Russian and Iranian intelligence may get access to the French weapons in Armenia. (…) They will be more than happy to examine the performance of the French radar that is being used by Ukraine.”
Finally, Petr Oskolkov scrutinizes the recent electoral events in Estonia that go beyond routine voting procedures. Providing an overview and analysis of the recent, rather unexpected, change of the ruling coalition, including the city mayor, in the Estonian capital, Oskolkov highlights the transforming landscape of the ethnic minority support for national political parties and points to the importance of the symbolic political measures addressed in the coalition treaty. He concludes that the Center Party, a longtime profiter from the Russophone political grievances, is now facing a substantial decrease in influence. To save the situation, it may (1) just leave things as they are, (2) change the party brand and/or enter a coalition with a non-parliamentary actor, for the sake of rebranding, or (3) concentrate solely on the Russophone needs, thus solidifying the ethnic constituency at least at the municipal level.
The Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program at BESA is going to do its best to update our readership on further developments in the post-Soviet region(s) in the upcoming months.