In January 2024, the analysts writing for the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program at BESA prepared eight materials concentrating on antisemitism, nationalism, and ethnic separatism in Russia, geopolitical alliance-making in the South Caucasus, and minoritarian electoral participation in Latvia.
Andrei Kazantsev-Vaisman explored the (possible) reincarnation of the Soviet-style state-supported antisemitism in Russia on the examples of three prominent figures in the Russian security services – namely, Nikolay Leonov, Leonid Reshetnikov, and Alexey Pavlov. Kazantsev-Vaisman underscored that the state structures are not ready to openly support antisemitic statements, but at the same time, try not to repel far-right actors. Also, anti-Jewish rhetoric is often disguised with various euphemisms. The author concludes his paper with a discussion of three legal cases – those of the theater director Kirill Serebrennikov, of the Jewish Agency for Israel in Russia, and Svetlana Petriychuk & Evgeniya Berkovich: allegedly, antisemitic motives were present in all three cases.
Continuing the exploration of the current, war-time Russian nationalism, Alexander Verkhovsky overviews its various strands and underlines the growing division inside the “ultra-patriotic” camp between those who are loyal to the incumbent regime and those who are not. He also points to the relevance of social media activism (mostly in Telegram) and the (revived) anti-migrant agenda for the Russian nationalist camp.
Velvl Chernin has authored three texts addressing ethnic politics in Russia and its conflict potential, namely, the cases of the Russian Buddhists (in the regions of Buryatia and Kamykia), Yakutia, and the Tatar-Bashkir continuum. He highlights the differences between the Russian Buddhist organizations’ position in Russian society, paying special attention to the attitude towards the war in Ukraine among the Kalmyks, and the prospects for Sakhan separatism. Chernin also researched the geographic, interethnic, and ecological aspects (the latter also coupled with the recent trial against the activist Fail Alsynov) of the national movement in Bashkortostan.
Sam Kliger analyzes the political stands of two South Caucasian countries, Azerbaijan and Armenia, towards the Hamas attack of 7th October and the subsequent counter-terrorist operation launched by Israel. He stresses the well-balanced approach of Azerbaijan which manages to sustain good relations with Israel while not repelling its Muslim allies (mainly Turkey which is also culturally close to it) with harsh (or just unequivocal) condemnations. Since Israel is interested in resource trade with Azerbaijan, this position is quite acceptable from the Jewish state’s point of view. Unlike its neighboring rival, Armenia has never had amicable relations with Israel, which was, inter alia, caused by Israeli arms being sold to Baku. Antisemitism is on the rise in Armenia, and with Iran currently the only ally the country has, its stance is not going to change.
Indeed, as Ariel Kogan notes in his paper, the loss in the conflict around Nagorno Karabakh has prompted Armenia to loosen its ties with Russia but, instead of “turning West,” it has enhanced its cooperation with India and Iran. Nowadays, Armenia is widely used by the Iranian authorities as both a transshipment point and a proving ground in the Islamic Republic’s fight against Israel.
Finally, moving westwards, Petr Oskolkov has investigated the Russian ethnic minority’s political participation in Latvia. The recent elections have demonstrated a significant decline in the popularity of the “loyal” and “well-integrated” Russian party “Harmony,” and a more radical and populist actor “For Stability!”’s rise to popularity. This is caused primarily by the confusion among the Russian-speaking Latvian voters who were disappointed by the stance toward the pandemic measures and the war in Ukraine taken by their traditional favorites.
The PSCRP is continuing to monitor the conflict dynamics in the former Soviet Union in 2024. Stay tuned.