PSCRP-BESA Reports No 202 (May 12, 2026)
by Alexander Shpunt
Introduction
By May 2026, the confrontation between the civil authorities of the Republic of Armenia, headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) has become, according to a number of global analytical centers and researchers, into the deepest gap between secular and spiritual power in the entire period of the country’s independence.
The conflict is multi-layered: it affects the constitutional and legal status of the Armenian Apostolic Church, the post-revolutionary redistribution of political power following the 2018 Velvet Revolution, competing versions of national identity (“Historical” and “Real” Armenia), as well as Yerevan’s geopolitical pivot away from Russia toward cooperation with Western partners and the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Historical And Legal Context
Constitutional and legal status of the Armenian Apostolic Church
The Constitution of the Republic of Armenia recognizes the special role of the Armenian Apostolic Church. As amended after the 2005 constitutional reform, Article 18 stipulates that the Republic of Armenia recognizes the “exclusive historical mission” of the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church. At the same time, the Constitution simultaneously enshrines the principles of secularism and the separation of religious organizations from the state, which creates dual legal regime: the AAC has a recognized exclusive mission, but remains formally separate from the state and is not endowed with state powers.
Researchers from the Armenian Regional Center for Democracy and Security (RCDS) note, that academic discussion about the real separation of powers has been absent for a long time, and attempts to bring legislation into line with the standards of the ECHR have increased the politicization of the topic and provoked resistance from church and national-patriotic circles.
The Role of the Church in Post-Soviet Politics until 2018
After the restoration of independence in 1991, the AAC quickly came to be perceived as one of the pillars of the new statehood and the moral legitimation of power. Academic research by A.B. Krylov (IMEMO RAS) shows that in the 1990s–2010s, the AAC effectively regained its quasi-state status: only this church received the right to teach the fundamentals of religion in state schools, its representatives participated in state ceremonies, and significant amounts of property confiscated during the Soviet period were returned to it.
Under Presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan (1998–2018), a “theocratic-political symbiotic ” model emerged: the government provided the church with material and institutional privileges, while the church leadership de facto supported the regime and participated in its legitimization.
Root Causes Of Conflict
Think tanks and researchers identify several complementary interpretations of the root causes of the conflict, none of which has absolute priority over the others.
Interpretation 1: Dismantling the symbiosis of the Church and the former elites
A number of analysts view the confrontation as a direct consequence of the post-revolutionary dismantling of the long-standing alliance between the Church and the ruling elites formed before 2018. The Central Asian-Caucasus Institute (CACI) points out in an analytical article from 2025, that the current government and the AAC “have never been allies”: from the first days after the 2018 revolution, Pashinyan criticized the church hierarchy for its ties to the “former criminal regime.”
Interpretation 2: Ideological confrontation between “Historical” and “Real” Armenia
Another set of analyses interprets the confrontation as an expression of a deeper ideological conflict between the traditional national-religious paradigm, in which the Church is the guardian of “Historical Armenia,” and the secular project of “Real Armenia,” oriented toward state pragmatism and Western values. The Yorktown Institute analysts interpret confrontation as “competition between two visions of Armenia.”
Interpretation 3: Geopolitical Dimension – The Church as a Channel of External Influence
Much of the research emphasizes the foreign policy context: attempts at normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey and the associated change in the role of the AAC.
Eurasianet and CACI define a joint publication in 2026 the geopolitical dimension as key: the escalation of the conflict should be seen both as an intra-institutional dispute and as a manifestation of a broader geopolitical transformation.
The geopolitical context became especially clear and even symbolic after 2022: Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II received a Russian state award from President Putin; Archbishop Yezras (Nersisyan), head of the Russian Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church and brother of Garegin II, publicly blessed the Arbat Battalion in 2023—a militarized unit associated with actions on the Russian side in the conflict in southeastern Russia and Ukraine. Security records: The Armenian Apostolic Church is a key participant in the electoral standoff, and the Kremlin has simultaneously fueled this conflict and exploited it for its own purposes.
Interpretation 4: Electoral context
Jamestown Foundation emphasizes political dimension: Many suspect that Pashinyan is seeking to silence critical voices ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2026. According to an MPG/ Gallup International Association poll, in January 2025, support for the ruling Civil Contract party was only 11 percent. According to the CRRC Caucasus Barometer (July–October 2024, 1,561 respondents), approximately 79 percent of Armenians expressed trust in the Armenian Apostolic Church—the highest figure among all public institutions in the country.
Chronology Of The Conflict
December 6, 2015: Constitutional referendum
A referendum approved a new version of the Constitution, legally enshrining the exclusive mission of the Church while formally maintaining the principle of separation of spheres. The combination of these two provisions forms the legal basis for future conflicts.
Spring 2018: The Velvet Revolution and the First Signs of Tension
Pashinyan to power . The government initiated an audit of tax and property benefits for religious organizations. In late 2018, the civic initiative movement “New Armenia, New Catholicos” began to form, demanding the resignation of Garegin II and accusing him of abuses and ties to criminal and oligarchic networks.
November 2020: War, defeat, and the AAC’s transition to open opposition
Armenia’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War (a 44-day conflict ended by a tripartite agreement brokered by Russia) was a watershed. On November 16, 2020, the Supreme Spiritual Council publicly questioned the political responsibility of the country’s leadership. Since then, research centers have assessed that relations have been irreversibly undermined.
September 2023: Complete loss of Nagorno-Karabakh
Baku fully recaptured Karabakh in a lightning offensive, forcing over 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee their homes. Church leaders openly defended the rights of displaced persons and criticized Pashinyan’s actions , seeing them as a failure to protect Armenian Christians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
February 19, 2025: Proclamation of the “Real Armenia” ideology
Prime Minister Pashinyan publicly presented the concept of “Real Armenia,” contrasting it with the concept of “Historical Armenia.” Pashinyan argued that focusing on historical lands outside the current republic creates geopolitical vulnerability and opens the door to Russian intervention. Carnegie Politics regards this as an attempt to displace traditional national-historical narratives sponsored by the Church.
April–November 2024: Tavush for the Motherland movement
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan led a civil disobedience campaign, the Tavush to the Motherland (Sacred Struggle) movement . On May 4, 2024, thousands of people marched from Tavush to Yerevan; on May 9, a large rally took place in Republic Square. In November 2024, the Investigative Committee of Armenia charged Archbishop Galstanyan was accused of plotting a violent coup. This accusation marked the transition of the conflict into an open criminal phase.
June-October 2025: Escalation, public accusations and mass arrests
On May 29, 2025, Prime Minister Pashinyan , speaking at a government meeting, remarked that “our churches have been cluttered”—that is, turned into storage rooms. Beginning in June 2025, the Armenian government imprisoned four bishops and one priest, along with dozens of others, including church workers, lawyers for the arrested clergy, family members of the clergy, and public supporters of the Church. On May 26, 2025, Archbishop Galstanyan announced his readiness to run for the post of prime minister.
January 5, 2026: A Roadmap for Church Reforms
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially presented a plan for reforming the Armenian Apostolic Church, announcing the announcement at his residence in the presence of 10 senior clerics calling for the resignation of the Catholicos. The document outlined a plan to remove the current Catholicos and create a Coordination Council under Pashinyan’s leadership .
The See of Holy Etchmiadzin responded: “Issues of regulating and reforming the Church do not fall within the purview of the self-proclaimed council. These matters fall within the jurisdiction of the Patriarchate of the Armenian Apostolic Church and its highest bodies.”
April 2026: Election Platform
The ruling party published an election platform calling for the removal of the current Catholicos and the restructuring of the church amid ongoing arrests and travel restrictions for church leaders.
Key Participants And Stakeholders
The Government of Armenia and the Civil Contract Party
The Armenian government, headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is the leading instigator of the conflict with church structures. The government claims to be fighting corruption and entrenched business interests within the Church. Specifically, the Church, which is legally exempt from property taxes, is accused of using this benefit for enrichment. However, no official court ruling or independent investigation has yet confirmed these allegations.
The Armenian Apostolic Church and Catholicos Garegin II
The Supreme Spiritual Council consistently accuses the authorities of an “anti-church campaign” and demands an end to the criminal prosecution of clergy (statements of November 16, 2020, June 2, 2025, January 31, 2026, March 13, 2026). The interests of the Church lie in maintaining influence, independence from state control, and fulfilling its constitutional mission .
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan
Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan , the head of the Tavush Diocese, became the leader of the “Tavush for the Motherland” movement (also known as “Sacred Struggle”) , which united thousands of people in a march from Tavush to Yerevan (May 4, 2024) and a large rally in Republic Square (May 9, 2024). Galstanyan for the first time explicitly declared his readiness to lead an “interim government” and hold early elections, which turned him into a political figure of national significance. On May 26, 2025, he announced his readiness to run for prime minister. Galstanyan was subsequently arrested on charges of organizing a coup d’état and attempting to seize power.
Samvel Karapetyan
Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, owner of the Tashir Group and an energy grid company in Armenia who has been an outspoken critic of Pashinyan, was arrested in June 2025 on charges of advocating for the government’s ouster, which he denied. CACI Analyst and Yorktown Institute notes that Karapetyan has long been considered a key pro-Russian business partner in Armenia and a major donor to church and opposition projects; his arrest and subsequent government moves to nationalize his power grid are interpreted as part of a crackdown on Russian pressure channels.
Russia as an external participant
Russian authorities have allowed Armenian Diaspora communities to publicly speak out about disputes between the Armenian government and church leadership and openly criticize Pashinyan’s actions , demonstrating tacit approval of the Russian authorities.
Russian and Armenian participants of the seventh meeting of the International Russian-Armenian Lazarev Club, held on April 28, 2026, in Moscow, unanimously condemned the unprecedented persecution of the Armenian Apostolic Church by the Armenian authorities and demanded an end to repression against the political opposition, expressing doubt that the elections in June 2026 can be recognized as fair and legitimate.
Armenian Diaspora
An estimated 3 million Armenians reside within the Republic of Armenia, while the vast majority of the estimated 10 million Armenians live in the Diaspora, with more than one million in the United States. On February 12, 2026, several prominent Diaspora figures issued a public statement characterizing the attacks on Church leadership as a direct threat to all Armenians worldwide. Professor Gerard Libaridian , a historian and diplomat, in an interview in February 2026 expressed a different point of view: this statement by the diaspora leaders is political in nature, since the Church itself is politicized.
The European Union and the Council of Europe
The EU and the Council of Europe act as indirect stakeholders: their human rights commitments on religious freedom provide the normative framework to which both the government (regarding secular reforms) and the Church (regarding the protection of autonomy) appeal. The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) interprets the standoff as a test for the Armenian model of secularism.
Azerbaijan, Turkey and regional actors
Turkey’s AVIM Center criticizes the Church’s interference in the discussion of normalizing relations between Yerevan, Baku, and Ankara, interpreting it as a factor hindering the implementation of new regional transport and economic projects. The Azerbaijani think tank BakuNetwork describes the Armenian Apostolic Church as an institution that “fuels nationalism and conflict” through militaristic rhetoric. Yorktown analysis The Institute also describes the supposed role of Iran, which views the AAC as a “social security actor ” and a potential channel of influence.
Articular Scenarios For Conflict Development
Scenario 1: Further escalation and institutional polarization
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) warns: Further deterioration of church-state relations could lead to civil conflict within the country and pose a threat to the re-election of the current authorities in the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2026, which could undermine efforts to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The HRWF ( CaspianAlpine ) Center sees the deepening standoff as a risk of escalating into a “structural crisis of statehood,” especially if the confrontation is accompanied by the growing influence of radical nationalist groups associated with some of the clergy.
Scenario 2: Canonical schism within the Church
The International Center for Law and Religious Studies (ICLRS) (author – Isabella Sargsyan ) formulates a specific risk: the church now risks facing a canonical schism that threatens the integrity of its internal structures. Khar Center also emphasizes that a radical change in church leadership under direct pressure from the state, even if it leads to a more reform- minded elite, may be perceived by a significant part of society and the diaspora as a “usurpation of spiritual authority.”
Scenario 3: Institutional Cold War and Frozen Conflict
AGBU in the article “Confrontation” and Crisis” formulates a scenario for a protracted “institutional cold war,” in which neither the state nor the Church manages to gain the upper hand: the parties avoid direct dialogue, hold parallel ceremonies, and society remains split between secular and ecclesiastical legitimacy.
Scenario 4: Reform of state-church relations and peaceful de-escalation
AGBU analysts are considering a scenario of “negotiated de-escalation ” mediated by diaspora figures, which could lead to an agreement on preserving canonical autonomy while simultaneously reaffirming the principle of the Church’s separation from party politics. However, as of late 2025, there were no signs of readiness for such compromises on the part of either the government or the Church leadership.
Conclusion
Analytical and academic sources agree that the conflict between the Armenian civil authorities and the Armenian Apostolic Church is multifaceted and cannot be reduced to a purely religious, political, or foreign policy dimension. Research centers estimate that the task of developing a sustainable model of church-state relations in Armenia will remain one of the central challenges for the Armenian political system, at least in the medium term—especially against the backdrop of ongoing foreign policy reorientation, post-war trauma, and preparations for the June 2026 parliamentary elections.