PSCRP-BESA Reports No 187 (March 7, 2026)
The Iranian regime is making desperate efforts to draw as many countries as possible into the war. This strategic calculation pursues several objectives. Even before the outbreak of hostilities, Tehran had warned that it would strike American bases in neighboring states and issued threatening statements toward all countries it deemed hostile. Consequently, from the very beginning of the war against the Iranian regime, these countries—including Azerbaijan—adopted a neutral stance and declared that they would in no way participate in combat operations. According to a report from the mouthpiece of French intelligence services (Intelligence Online, March 5, 2026), “at the start of the Israeli-US offensive, President Ilham Aliyev and the head of foreign intelligence, Orkhan Soultanov, sent a message to Tehran and Tel Aviv asking both governments to keep it out of the war.”
Despite this, the Iranian regime fulfilled its threat and, from the first day, began shelling American military bases in Arab countries with missiles and drones. Oil industry facilities also came under attack. However, Tehran decided not to limit itself to this. Soon afterward, strikes were launched against Cyprus, which is located very far from Iran and has no American bases whatsoever. Cyprus hosts a British base, but the British declared neutrality from the first minute and stated that they would not provide the United States with their base in the Indian Ocean for attacks on Iran. Nevertheless, this did not prevent Tehran from attacking them as well.
Iranian propaganda has threatened Azerbaijan for years. The Iranian regime has accused its neighboring country of cooperating with Israel and the United States, as well as of fomenting pan-Turkic sentiments among the Turkic-speaking population of Iran, which constitutes more than a quarter of the country’s inhabitants. Nevertheless, unlike the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, there are no American—or indeed any other foreign—military bases on the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Moreover, Azerbaijan has strictly adhered to neutrality toward Iran and has not permitted the use of its territory for strikes against the Islamic Republic. President Ilham Aliyev expressed condolences over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the bombing on February 28. The Azerbaijani leader called for restraint and de-escalation of tensions. Therefore, the Iranian regime had no real grounds—not even tenuous ones comparable to those for the attack on Cyprus—for assaulting its northern neighbor.
Nevertheless, on the morning of March 5, several drones entered Azerbaijani airspace from Iran. A strike was carried out at Nakhchivan International Airport. Another drone struck a school in the village of Shekerabad, approximately ten kilometers from the border. As a result of these incidents, four people were injured. One drone was shot down.
Azerbaijan’s response was immediate. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Iranian Ambassador Mojtaba Demirchilu to deliver a note of protest. Baku announced the closure of the border to Iranian cargo and the recall of diplomats from Tehran and Tabriz. Turkey, Azerbaijan’s strategic partner, immediately expressed solidarity and declared support for the country in the face of Iranian aggression. Israel and Arab countries condemned the strike on Nakhchivan. Pakistan, a nuclear power, also expressed solidarity and support.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council. He described the Iranian attack as a “terrorist act” and accused the Iranian regime of black ingratitude: the strike occurred after Azerbaijan had agreed to provide gratuitous assistance to Iran in evacuating diplomatic personnel from Lebanon. The head of state stated that those who test his country’s resilience would face a crushing response. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces are at maximum readiness.
Upon witnessing such a sharp reaction, the Iranian government hastened to declare that Iran had not struck Azerbaijan. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the Iranian armed forces had no intention of attacking countries that were in no way participating in the war and were not providing bases for attacks on Iran.
At the same time, Iranian propaganda is actively promoting the version that the strikes on Azerbaijan were carried out by Israel or the United States and that the drones themselves were of Azerbaijani production—although the drones were identified as Iranian, of the Arash-2 type.
But this entire official line is undermined by the IRGC, which, through its media resources, claimed responsibility for the attack on Azerbaijan and threatened that it would not stop there.
The day after the drone strikes, on March 6, Azerbaijan’s security service reported the detention of members of a terrorist cell formed by IRGC for carrying out terrorist attacks against the Israeli embassy in Baku, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, and Jewish sites in the country.
It can be assumed that the IRGC is acting independently, without consulting the political echelon. Prior to the war, information emerged that, following the 12-day campaign in the summer of 2025, Iranian leadership had taken measures to decentralize command. Furthermore, the Iranian leadership granted the IRGC a de facto unrestricted authority to wage war and complete autonomy in making military decisions. Indeed, IRGC generals could have acted independently of the government’s opinion and attacked Azerbaijan based on their plans. This, of course, in no way exonerates the Iranian regime but merely underscores its terrorist nature.
The further development of events will depend on whether this Iranian strike on Azerbaijan remains an isolated incident or is followed by other similar provocations.
Iran’s strikes on neighboring countries pursue several goals at once. First, Tehran hopes to drive up oil prices to such an extent that gasoline becomes significantly more expensive in the United States. This would create domestic tension and fuel anti-war sentiments in America. Secondly, Tehran seeks to destabilize the situation in Arab countries, thereby compelling their governments to implore, beg, or demand that the United States cease the war. Third, a strike on Azerbaijan forces a restriction of the already narrow airspace corridor through which air traffic between East and West continues—Azerbaijan fears that, in the event of repeated attacks, passenger airliners could be harmed, either by drones or by air defense fire.
However, there is another, less obvious calculation to consider. The Iranian regime is strongly hoping to draw Arab countries into the war. If they join the United States and Israel and begin striking Iran, this would most likely trigger a surge of patriotism and allow the regime to bolster popular support, which has been rapidly eroding in recent years.
By inciting Azerbaijan, and consequently Turkey, the regime is initiating a riskier strategy. Yes, there is an economic component: a strike on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would further drive up oil prices, threaten Israel’s energy security, and complicate the situation in Turkey. In addition, it creates a threat to the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” project through the Zangezur Corridor. But this remains a secondary objective.
The primary goal of the provocations is most likely to compel Turkey and Azerbaijan to launch strikes or even invade Iran to create buffer zones. If such a scenario materializes, Tehran would immediately speak of a threat to territorial integrity. In essence, the Iranian regime hopes that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ilham Aliyev will play the role for it that Saddam Hussein played in 1980. When the well-armed Iraqi army invaded Iran, virtually all Iranians united around Khomeini, even though it had already become clear what kind of regime this was—one that had unleashed mass repressions immediately after coming to power. Nevertheless, the threat to the homeland compelled Iranians to rally under the banners of the Islamic Republic. Largely thanks to that war, the regime was able to consolidate popular support and ensure legitimacy for several decades.
But today this calculation could yield a completely different result. Iran’s Azerbaijanis, weary of the failed regime, are unlikely to have greeted news of the strikes on Nakhchivan with enthusiasm. Despite all the propaganda against the Republic of Azerbaijan, it regards its neighboring country with sympathy. Moreover, the Azerbaijani army, though not the most numerous, possesses serious combat experience and is well-equipped. Under conditions of total American-Israeli air dominance, the IRGC will have nothing to oppose such an adversary, which could lead to significant losses for Iran in a military engagement. Thus, a direct military confrontation with Azerbaijan could become a catastrophe for Iran.
Nevertheless, such a confrontation remains highly unlikely. It is evident that the Iranian regime, after the elimination of Khamenei and a large number of generals, has fallen into despair and is employing all means at its disposal. The methodical destruction of military facilities only intensifies its despair, prompting attempts to provoke neighbors into rash actions in the hope of bolstering its position. Baku knows this and is unlikely to yield to these provocations, even if the strikes recur.
The example of the UAE may be instructive here. Iranian strikes have consistently targeted the Emirates since February 28. However, in response, the UAE chose not to enter the war but to freeze Iranian financial assets. Azerbaijan, too, can quite feasibly find a way to respond to the Iranian regime’s provocations without direct military confrontation.
PSCRP team