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If Nicolรกs Maduro is removed from office in Venezuela, Putin might act as he did when a popular revolution overthrew Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014. At that time, he launched a surprise invasion of Crimea. This time, he may launch a surprise naval and land attack on Mariupol, set up a land bridge from Crimea to Russia, and continue intensifying his attempt to strangle Ukraine's economy in order to subjugate that country to Russia. Trump must take immediate preemptive measures to prevent this by increasing naval aid to Kiev.
The conflict in East Ukraine has reached a frozen phase in which neither side is making many gains. Despite agreements, the conflict has not seen any meaningful breakthrough for more than three years. Geopolitical imperatives dictate that progress will be contingent upon either Russia or Ukraine (i.e., the West) conceding their interests. The Ukrainian problem is rooted in the geography of the country as well as in the consistent failure of Russia to leverage its involvement in Syria and other theaters for western concessions.
Kazakhstan, now an independent state and formerly one of the republics of the USSR, has the longest land border with Russia. It stretches for 7,600 kilometers, a significant distance that necessitates Kazakhstan's constant balancing act in Russian-Kazakh relations. The war in Ukraine temporarily weakened Russian influence in Central Asia, but now things are returning to their previous state.
Despite various statements by interested parties, the negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been and are still stuck. Hamas continues to demand a total cessation of Israel's military operations and withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza and the opening of Gaza for unimpeded and unchecked imports (i.e., the ability to import weapons to rebuild their forces) in return for a slow dribble of kidnappees totaling approximately 30 to 35 (including dead ones) of the 132 (including dead) kidnappees still in Palestinian hands. In other words, it demands the ability to rehabilitate its control over Gaza to be able to continue to attack Israel. The Israeli government has so far refused to accept these terms. It is willing to exchange some imprisoned Palestinian terrorists (the exact numbers are not clear โ€“ before the war there were approximately 5,000 Palestinians in custody for terrorist activity and during the war many more have been captured โ€“ a few thousand in Judea and Samaria and a few thousand in Gaza) and accept a temporary ceasefire only. The issue of whether to accept or not has caused friction inside Israel with some groups demanding the government accede to the terms. Currently the majority of Israelis, according to polls, still support the government's position.
Russian aspirations in Africa (AI generated)
Receding on some fronts, the West seems to invite Russia to strain its forces and make mistakes. African leaders, however, are pragmatic: they are no worse than Moscow at calculating benefits and costs, and therefore will not refrain from turning proximity to Russia into a bargaining chip with Western partners. The war in Ukraine and sanctions are limiting Russian resources, making business difficult for Russian companies worldwide.

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