BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,376, April 20, 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Indo-Pacific region is at the center of global geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. The region, encompassing pivotal powers such as Japan, India, China, and the United States, is a focal point for international relations, underscoring its significance as a power center. Over the past 25 years, the trajectories and implications of current events and policies in the region have strikingly shifted, with China taking on the role of rival. In view of the current conflict in the Persian Gulf, the countries of the Indo-Pacific region will have to reevaluate their relationships with Iran and consider the implications of the conflict for their own national interests.
In the early 2000s, discourse on globalization dominated discussions among political scientists and policymakers. Thomas Friedman’s influential work, The World is Flat, addressed the ways in which globalization redefined international relations, particularly through outsourcing and economic interdependence. Countries like India emerged as key players in the information technology sector, contributing positively to global economic growth. Yet the optimism surrounding globalization has significantly waned in recent years.
China, initially perceived as a potential ally in liberal internationalism, has shifted its perspective to one of competition and rivalry. Instead of promoting peaceful coexistence, China has taken an increasingly assertive stance that has catalyzed geopolitical tensions across the Indo-Pacific. Events such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine further demonstrate that economic interdependence does not guarantee political stability or peace. Traditional security paradigms have shown themselves insufficient to address the complexities of contemporary geopolitics.
Historically characterized by cooperative security strategies, both European and US policies have pivoted towards taking a more insular approach to immediate regional threats. Recent National Security Strategies acknowledge that prior assumptions about peaceful globalization are no longer valid. Japan, for instance, is revisiting its defense strategies, planning to significantly increase its defense budget, and striving to meet the 2% GDP threshold by 2030. Such measures speak to the anticipated escalation of threats, particularly regarding Taiwan and other pivotal flashpoints.
The juxtaposition of economic growth against democratization further complicates regional politics. Economic advancements in authoritarian regimes can suppress democratic progress, causing policymakers profound concern in their dealings with emerging economies. Japan’s official development assistance (ODA) policies are increasingly informed by the understanding that economic growth does not inherently progress democratization. This realization underscores a need for sophisticated strategic avenues to integrate economic objectives with the promotion of democratic norms.
The strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific has become more precarious, marked by frequent military confrontations and an arms race among regional powers. Concepts such as the security dilemma and the “Thucydides Trap” are now used to elucidate the region’s political dynamics, especially as players like Japan and India are perceived as threats by a defensive Beijing.
Japan’s move to enhance its military capabilities—through increased defense spending and the adoption of offensive capabilities—has been interpreted by China as provocative. Japan’s strategic shift necessitates a comprehensive approach that goes beyond quantitative measures and focuses on qualitative deterrence strategies. Cooperation between Japan and the United States is crucial for effective deterrence against adverse regional actions.
The complex interactions among regional actors prompt an urgent call for US allies like Japan and India to assume a more proactive role in confronting challenges posed by China. This shift in mindset is pivotal, as regional allies should not merely align with US policies but should contribute their strategic perspectives and capabilities to foster a balanced power dynamic.
South Korea’s evolving foreign policy illustrates the broader trend within the Indo-Pacific. Historically focused on security concerns with regard to North Korea, the introduction of President Moon Jae-in’s “New Southern Policy” and the current SHINE policy represent a significant pivot towards economic cooperation and regional engagement.
As South Korea navigates its dual alignment with the US and economic cooperation with China, it must balance these seemingly conflicting priorities. In doing so, South Korea aspires to solidify its status as a key power amid the complex Indo-Pacific landscape.
India’s transformation from cautious regional actor to proactive shaper of the Indo-Pacific order is significant. This shift, which accelerated post-2019 and particularly after the 2025 Kashmir crisis, positions India as a maritime, technological, and strategic power influencing regional dynamics involving China, the United States, and partners across the Gulf and Western Pacific. India’s economic rise and closer ties to the US add to China’s apprehensions.
In recent years, the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific has become increasingly tense and dynamic, marked by military confrontations and a regional arms race. Unlike in the past, regional players like Japan and India are now perceived as rising threats by Beijing. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities. While the potential for aggression and conflict exists, it allows for new strategies to prevent military escalation.
US behavior appears more complex. While China views it as a long-term threat, the US seeks to prevent war in the region through deterrent strategies, emphasizing economic rivalry over military confrontation. Recent military dialogues and economic policies suggest a cautious approach to maintaining stability.
To ensure regional stability, US allies like Japan and India must assume a more proactive role in countering China rather than remain passive followers of US policy. This transition, though challenging, could enhance deterrence against Chinese expansion and strengthen Western alliances amid rising global challenges.
Considering the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, Japan, China, India, and South Korea will have to reevaluate their policies towards Iran and reconsider the implications of this conflict for their interests and interactions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Prof. Ken Jimbo is Professor of International Relations at Keio University and a Managing Director of Programs at the International House of Japan (IHJ/I-House). He served as a Special Advisor to the Japan Ministry of Defense in 2020 and Senior Advisor to the National Security Secretariat from 2018 to 2020.
Prof. Yoram Evron is an Associate Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at Bar-Ilan University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Dr. Alon Levkowitz is a Senior Lecturer and Chair of the Asian Department at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Dr. Lauren Dagan Amos is a member of the Deborah Forum and a lecturer and teaching assistant in the Department of Political Science and the Security Studies Program at Bar-Ilan University.