PSCRP-BESA Reports No 106 (Dec 21, 2024)
Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president begins in a month. High on his priority list, as per his statements, is initiating a ceasefire in Ukraine followed by peace talks to end the war triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Trump has stated his intention to address this issue within the first days of his presidency.
How to “Sell” a (Still Non-Existent) Peace Plan
Despite Trump’s ambitious goals, insiders suggest the details of a peace plan to end the 33-month-long conflict, the largest in Europe since World War II, remain unclear. Following a trilateral meeting on December 7, 2024, in Paris between Zelensky, Trump, and Emmanuel Macron, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, remarked: “No (American) plan exists yet, and we certainly haven’t seen one.”.
Currently, the peace framework under discussion includes three key principles:
- Freezing the Conflict: Ceasefire lines would reflect the battlefield situation at the time, effectively leaving Russia in control of Crimea, 80% of Donbas, over 70% of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and parts of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv provinces. While Ukraine would not legally recognize these territories as Russian, per Zelensky’s interview with CBN News, Western allies might accept this as part of a broader agreement.
- Security Guarantees Without NATO Membership: Ukraine would forego NATO membership in exchange for substantial Western security guarantees. A 40,000-strong European peacekeeping mission could oversee a buffer zone between Ukrainian and Russian forces, though U.S. troops would not participate. Trump has advocated for a “strong and well-armed Ukraine”.
- Pressure on Both Sides: Washington may pressure Putin and Zelensky by threatening to reduce military and financial support for Ukraine if it refuses negotiations, or to increase assistance significantly should Russia reject the terms.
Resistance from Both Kyiv and Moscow
Reaching consensus remains a monumental challenge. Kyiv insists on implementing Zelensky’s “peace formula,” which demands NATO membership and a return to Ukraine’s 1991 borders, including the full de-occupation of territories annexed by Russia since 2014. Conversely, Moscow opposes all elements of Zelensky’s plan and sees time as a strategic advantage.
In Kyiv, there is significant resistance to negotiating without securing advanced Western weapons first. Analysts like Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, warn against pressuring Kyiv to negotiate while Russia shows no intent for genuine talks. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, has suggested a compromise: Ukraine could nominally cede some territories to Russia while receiving NATO membership and accelerated military aid.
Would Elections Bring a Solution?
Adopting Trump’s “take it or leave it” approach to diplomacy would mark a dramatic shift from the long-standing policy of allowing Kyiv to dictate peace terms. Such a shift could damage Zelensky’s reputation, both domestically and internationally. With 88% of Ukrainians believing in a victory over Russia as of September 2024, “selling” a peace deal based on territorial compromises would be nearly impossible.
Polling by Carnegie Endowment and Rating Group in May 2024 indicated that while many Ukrainians support negotiations, 70% would demand new leadership if they disagreed with the terms of a peace deal. Speculation about elections, delayed under martial law, has intensified. Some suggest Zelensky might not run, preserving his legacy as a unifier during wartime.
Legal and Logistical Challenges
Elections during wartime would face significant legal, logistical, and financial hurdles, including amendments to martial law, a $240 million election budget, and provisions for voting by soldiers and displaced citizens. As of now, Ukraine’s Central Election Commission is merely updating voter rolls, and no budget for elections has been allocated. Furthermore, public opinion remains divided: in February 2024, 69% of Ukrainians believed Zelensky should serve until martial law ends.
Conclusion
The Biden administration will face immense challenges in convincing Zelensky to adopt a peace plan requiring significant concessions. Simultaneously, Zelensky must navigate domestic opposition, maintain international support, and possibly prepare for elections under the shadow of ongoing war.