Political Economy in the Name of Erdoğan

The failed coup attempt against President Erdoğan shook Turkish society and accelerated Erdoğan’s concentration of power. The Turkish economy also suffered a shock, with the lira dropping in value, a flight of foreign investment, and an increase in inflation. The tension between Ankara and the West continues to mount, adding to the country’s economic uncertainty. In anticipation of the 2019 elections, the opposition parties hope the economic issue will adversely affect the Justice and Development Party. However, Turkey's domestic consumption and growing exports have produced a challenging but stable economic picture that should benefit Erdoğan.

Why Does the Average Turk Love Erdoğan?

A quick glance at Turkey’s facts and figures helps to explain why the Turks love their leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. There are striking parallels between the political sociology of the average Turkish voter and Erdoğan’s Islamist worldview. In a way, Erdoğan is what the average Turk sees when he looks in the mirror.

Erdoğan’s Kurdish Gambit

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan perceives the Kurdish belt along Turkey’s Syrian and Iraqi borders as the country’s top security threat, and has recalibrated his policies accordingly. But he has a Kurdish constituency inside Turkey and will need their votes in 2019. During the upcoming presidential campaign, Erdoğan will have to find a miracle equilibrium: how to win Kurdish votes without losing nationalist Turkish votes?

The Turkish Love-Hate Relationship with America

About the same proportion of Turks view the US (72%) and ISIS (73%) as a threat to their country. That’s weird. Erdoğan’s generation of Islamists were anti-American largely because of the Arab-Israeli dispute – although they feared Soviet communism more than American imperialism. Future generations of Turkish Islamists will hate America even more because they will have gone through long years of anti-American indoctrination by a beloved leader and his powerful propaganda machine.

Turkey and Germany: A Worsening Crisis

The harsh measures taken by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan since the failed coup attempt last year have led to a deepening crisis with a host of Western states, first and foremost with Germany. Since the coup attempt, relations between Ankara and Berlin have been at an unprecedented low. However, in light of their history of close relations, the volume of stable economic trade over the years, and Turkey's ability to stabilize the waves of immigration to Europe, the countries may yet find a channel of communication in order to contain the crisis.

What’s On a Muslim Refugee’s Mind?

Almost all the “poor” illegal migrants on the Greek islands want to go to Germany, where they have heard from friends and relatives that they will be the best paid for being refugees. The cliché “the-poor-souls-are-fleeing-war-in-their-native-country” is becoming less and less convincing by the day. True, most Syrians fled to Turkey after the start of civil war in their country. But is flight from war their motivation as they proceed onwards to Greece, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria?

Why Are Relations Tightening Between China and Turkey?

The volume of trade between China and Turkey grew significantly in the first decade of this century. The countries’ relationship is now strengthening further, reflecting Turkey’s interest in participating in the BRI and the Chinese leadership’s struggles with its Uyghur minority. Judging from recent declarations, it appears the relationship will hold up, as neither side has viable alternatives to this alliance.

Erdoğan’s Turkey: A Step Closer to the Orient

Despite Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s charisma as a politician, he has failed to promote stability in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East due to his maximalist ideas. Erdoğan’s negligent decision-making in foreign affairs is leading Turkey away from the West and closer to the instability of the Orient.

A Turkish-EU Opera Buffa

Turkey says it wants to join the EU, but has no intention of complying with membership rules. The EU says it wants Turkey to join, but is fully aware that it does not qualify. Turkey pushes forward in the hope that the EU might someday change its rules; the EU pushes forward in the hope that Turkey might someday qualify. Neither will happen.

Erdoğan Exploits the Temple Mount Crisis to Foment Anti-Zionism and Anti-Semitism

Turkey continues to insert itself more and more into the ongoing clashes on the Temple Mount, almost as if it legally represents the Palestinians in the dispute. Turkey's anti-Israel agitation, which garners wide support among Palestinians in both Gaza and the PA, is hardly new. But its patronage of the Palestinians hides more than religious sentiment. Turkish anti-Zionism, which aligns directly with anti-Semitism, is being expressed once again through the current friction.