Foreign policy issues only rarely play a major role in American presidential elections, and when they do, it is usually at times of acute international crisis or warfare. Such matters had received little attention in the 2020 debates among the Democratic presidential hopefuls—until the targeting killing of Qassem Soleimani and the reentry into the news cycle of Trump’s peace plan. The leading Democratic candidates have since made statements about the role of the US in the world, deployment and use of force, the nuclear deal with Iran, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. There are differences among the candidates, but they all promise to radically change American foreign policy. 

As the next decade approaches, the US stands at a historic crossroads regarding both domestic and foreign issues. The 2020 presidential and congressional elections will to a large extent determine whether the current trends of populism, polarization, and incitement coursing through American society, and of withdrawal from international leadership, will continue or come to an end; whether the phenomenon of “Trumpism” will persist or be remembered as an aberration; whether the political and ideological gaps between Democrats and Republicans that have paralyzed the administration will narrow; and whether the economic boom of the last few years will go on or the US will enter a recession. Demographic shifts are changing the face of the US, and in the course of the decade they will have a significant impact on major political, social, and economic issues.  

Impeachment hearings in the US have overshadowed important geopolitical developments in Eurasia that will affect Washington’s position in 2020 and beyond. The US’s failure to improve relations with Seoul and Tokyo strengthens China’s position in the Asia-Pacific. Similar processes are unfolding around Ukraine, where Kyiv might—in the absence of US support—be pressured into accepting Russian demands on Donbas.