EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: On core matters of peace and security, two closely interrelated questions must be asked:
- What precisely does Donald Trump have in mind regarding any potential armed conflict with Iran?
- What might such a possibility portend for Israel, a US ally?
Answers to these questions must extend beyond narrowly partisan simplifications. They should be nuanced and subtly overlapping.
At a minimum, once a shooting war were underway, the Israeli armed forces (IDF) could become involved, possibly to a substantial degree. In a worst case scenario, clashes would involve unconventional weapons and directly affect Israel’s civilian population. The worst of the worst could involve nuclear ordnance.