Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 206
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel is currently at war with Iran. Despite being non-nuclear, Iran could draw Israel into a protracted conflict involving “only” conventional missile and drone weaponry. Quickly, any such conflict in which both sides would seek “escalation dominance” and wherein the Israeli side might not be sufficiently advantaged could compel a time-urgent decision in Jerusalem: (1) be willing to threaten calibrated and plausible nuclear reprisals, or (2) submit to seemingly interminable attrition warfare. Though the first option would amount to making threats of “asymmetrical nuclear war,” it could still represent the most rational and cumulatively humane approach to Israeli national survival. In the final analysis, Israel can only succeed in its current war if it prevents Iranian nuclearization.
Prof. Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books and scholarly articles dealing with international law, nuclear strategy, nuclear war, and terrorism. In Israel, Prof. Beres was Chair of Project Daniel (PM Sharon). His 12th and latest book is Surviving Amid Chaos: Israel’s Nuclear Strategy (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016; 2nd ed., 2018).