In October 2025, the analytical materials by PSCRP covered a wide range of countries and sub-regions within the post-Soviet area, including Russia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
The PSCRP team has analyzed the recent elections in Moldova, which have secured the pro-European PAS party led by Maia Sandu, the incumbent president, a parliamentary majority. The authors note Russia’s alleged attempts to interfere in the elections to support pro-Russian forces, including disinformation and intimidation campaigns and preparations to provoke mass unrest. However, the electoral strategy of the pro-European actors was also problematic, since PAS has largely employed institutional leverage, including barring pro-Russian parties from participation shortly before the elections (based solely on suspicions from the security services) and reducing the number of polling stations in areas with a predominantly pro-Russian electorate.
Velvl Chernin sheds light on the political (and ethno-political) situation in the Republic of Altai, a region within the Russian Federation. He describes the recent protests against the proposed amendments to the regional constitution that might remove the clause on territorial integrity, and against the abolition of village councils, local self-governance bodies, pushed by the Head of the region in line with the law recently adopted by the federal parliament. Aruna Arna, the charismatic leader of the protests, was recently detained by the Russian security forces and charged with public calls for separatism. Generally, Chernin is quite pessimistic in assessing the protests’ prospects, considering the small size of the indigenous Altai population and the overall possibilities of dissent in the current political environment.
Further on, Velvl Chernin shares his analysis of the PACE’s recent decision to “establish a platform for dialogue with Russian democratic forces,” meaning that, in the absence of Moscow’s official participation, opposition representatives are granted certain rights and will be able to exchange views and “address issues of mutual interests.” Although Chernin assesses this decision as long-awaited, he underlines the continuous infighting between various groups of Russian opposition, which makes any coordination between them close to unfeasible, the PACE’s requirement to sign the so-called “Berlin Declaration of Russian Democratic Forces” (April 2023) to participate in the platform (which benefits the groups associated with Mikhail Khodorkovsky and disadvantages the “Anti-Corruption Foundation”), and the controversial nature of the informal leadership within the platform (the proposed candidature of Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr. is not unquestionable). Moreover, Chernin highlights the criticism of the platform by the “League of Free Nations,” a conglomerate of separatist movements that envision the “postcolonial disintegration” of Russia and consider the oppositional forces represented in PACE as equally “Russian chauvinist” and “imperialist” as the Kremlin.
The PSCRP team critically observes the recent discrepancies in Armenian politics and the controversy between the political power (Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which has opted for a pro-European orientation and peace with Azerbaijan) and the Armenian Apostolic Church, which advocates for the traditional alliance with Russia and zero concessions to Baku. Recently, several high-ranked clergy representatives were arrested, as well as a Russian-Armenian businessman, Samvel Karapetyan; they are accused of various anti-state and anti-government activities. The authors note that “the Armenian Apostolic Church, through its network of religious institutions, can mobilize public sentiment, while wealthy individuals like Karapetyan provide financial support. In this context, Armenia’s internal politics take on broader regional significance.”
Another material by the PSCRP team critically assesses Western policies towards Kazakhstan, focusing on the strategic disengagement of Western powers from the fate of Central Asian states and markets. The authors warn against blanket sanctioning of the Kazakh economy and offer, instead, several ways to enhance Astana’s multivectoral position – given its unavoidable dependence on Moscow. Namely, they emphasize cooperation and identity-building within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States, diversification of oil export routes, and Astana’s role in negotiations on the future of the ongoing conflicts.
Traditionally, Alexander Shpunt has prepared a monthly overview of several significant publications on the post-Soviet conflicts.
In the upcoming months, the PSCRP will publish more analytical papers and organize several interesting events, so stay tuned!