Arab, Russian, and Pakistani Protesters Learn the Lessons of 2011

Demonstrators in Sudan, Algeria, and nations beyond the Middle East such as Pakistan and Russia are applying lessons learned from the 2011 popular Arab revolts as the Sudanese military uses an apparent Saudi-United Arab Emirates template to crack down.

A New Strategy Toward Tehran: Exploit Iran’s Fear

The Iranian regime’s worst fear is a foreign invasion. In order to bring the mullahs to the negotiating table, the US should eliminate the regime’s proxies in Iran’s Iraqi and Syrian “near-abroad” and bring that threat into full relief.

Russia Resurrects Mass Mobilization

Emil Avdaliani
June 25, 2019
Paper No. 1208

Mass mobilization saved the Russian state on many occasions in past centuries, proving effective against Charles XII, Napoleon I, and Hitler. The Russians are still inclined toward mass mobilization, even though modern wars tend to be more short-term. The large-scale military spending required to sustain mass mobilization will create additional problems for the already embattled Russian economy.

Iran Is Very Close to the Nuclear Threshold

Iran is threatening to resume its uranium enrichment effort to the point that it will be able to produce a nuclear bomb. According to Olli Heinonen, who served until 2010 as IAEA deputy director general, Iran will be in a position to acquire nuclear weapons within six to eight months.

The Hong Kong Demonstrations

Though it has been a part of China since 1997 following the transfer of power from Great Britain, Hong Kong enjoys autonomy, a separate judiciary, an independent political system (except for foreign affairs, which are managed by the central government in Beijing), and a free media. The extradition bill recently proposed by Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam would have severely compromised the separation between the two entities. The bill was vigorously protested by the people of Hong Kong in demonstrations of extraordinary magnitude. The vote was postponed to June 20 and then suspended indefinitely.

Leveraging Iran

Franc Milburn
June 21, 2019
Paper No. 1205

Mainstream analysis of the current crisis in US-Iran relations revolves around “maximum pressure” sanctions and potential American military contingencies. There is another move, however, involving a unique set of knights on the regional chessboard – and one that comes straight out of Tehran´s own playbook.

Did Dutch Jews Go Like Lambs to the Gas Chambers?

Retired Dutch general Toine Beukering – a candidate for chairman of the Senate – said earlier this month that the Jews were “chased like docile lambs into the gas chambers.” This remark, for which he later apologized, once again raised the issue of the huge historical distortion of the Dutch role during WWII. The Dutch, who collaborated massively with the German occupiers, now exaggerate Dutch wartime resistance and underemphasize the disproportionately large role of Jews in it.

Ahead of the Bahrain Conference, Hamas Casts Its Lot with Iran

A week and a half ago, Hamas organized its weekly confrontation on the Gaza fence in honor of World Jerusalem Day, an event inaugurated by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and celebrated since then primarily by Iran and its Hezbollah proxy. This move reflects the organization’s defiance of the Sunni Arab states, especially those who plan to attend the Trump-sponsored conference in Bahrain.

Lessons from Israel’s First US Ambassador

Following Harry Truman’s recognition of the Provisional Government of Israel in early 1949, James McDonald was appointed the first US ambassador to the nascent Jewish state. In his memoirs, McDonald discusses Israel-Diaspora relations, which are as central today as they were in the early days of the State. This topic continues to be a source of division: witness the slanderous attacks made by Muslim Congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar regarding American Jews’ “dual loyalties” and the State of Israel.

The Trade War Is Just the Start of a US-China Cold War

Emil Avdaliani
June 16, 2019
Paper No. 1201

Many observers view the current confrontation on trade between China and the US as temporary. However, the two countries have opposed geopolitical imperatives that make it highly unlikely that a long-term solution will be found. The US will have to consider how to contain China, which is a far more formidable competitor than the Soviet Union ever was. The US will need much more than a Cold War-style “containment” strategy to counter Chinese ambitions.

Perspectives Papers