PSCRP-BESA Reports No 231 (September 21, 2026)
Part 2. Election campaign and evolution of party-political system.
Party Competition and the Transformation of Kazakhstan’s Party System in the 2026 Kurultai Election
The election of 23 August 2026 substantially reshaped Kazakhstan’s party system. Seven registered political parties contested all 145 seats in the newly established unicameral Kurultai, elected entirely through nationwide party lists. Five parties that represented all political spectrum crossed the 5 per cent electoral threshold: Adilet, Auyl, Respublica, Ak Zhol and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP). Two left parties (The People’s Party of Kazakhstan and the Baitaq Green Party) failed to enter the new legislature. The official results were highly concentrated. Adilet received 71.17 per cent of the vote and 110 seats; Auyl 6.26 per cent and 10 seats; Respublica 5.56 per cent and nine seats; Ak Zhol 5.21 per cent and eight seats; and OSDP 5.11 per cent and eight seats. The People’s Party received 3.11 per cent and Baitaq only 1.07 per cent. The most significant feature of the election, however, was not simply Adilet’s overwhelming victory. It was the reorganization of party system, combined with a weakening of virtually all the smaller parties that had entered the Mazhilis in 2023.
1. Adilet: from a “party of power” to a party of presidential modernization
The current ruling party, Adilet, traces its institutional origins to Nur Otan (“Light of the Fatherland”), the pro-presidential party that dominated Kazakhstan’s political system under Nursultan Nazarbayev. At that period it looked like specific Post-Soviet “party of power” (with “United Russia” in neighboring Russian Federation being one of the examples of such a party) lacking any clear ideology and reform program. In the wake of President Tokayev’s reform agenda, the party after the January 2022 unrest was first reformed as Amanat (“Entrusted Legacy”) in March 2022, and subsequently seriously reorganized as Adilet (“Justice”) in 2026. Both transformations formed part of a broader effort to distance the political system from the Nazarbayev era, marked by the departure of many prominent figures associated with the former president and the construction of a new clearly cut political identity centered on Tokayev’s concept of a “New Kazakhstan”.
Adilet was formed only several months before the election and it directly incorporated Amanat in June 2026. So, the ruling party was not simply reformed twice, during the last reform it joined a completely new party, which emphasized an institutional and what is most important in Kazakhstan’s context personal breakthrough with the past.
Adilet therefore should not be understood simply as another new entrant to the political system. Institutionally, it inherited the organizational infrastructure and much of the political space previously occupied by Amanat, while simultaneously creating a new political identity associated more directly with the current stage of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s reforms.
The electoral effect of this transformation was substantial. Amanat had received 53.90 per cent of the party-list vote in the 2023 Mazhilis election. Adilet received 71.17 per cent in 2026. Although the two results cannot be treated as perfectly comparable because both the institutional setting and electoral context changed, the difference nevertheless points to a major consolidation of the presidential electoral bloc.
Ideologically, Adilet describes itself as a party of “reformist centrism” and explicitly rejects the conventional left-right division. Its program combines several elements that are characteristic of Tokayev’s broader political discourse: social justice, the rule of law, patriotism, personal responsibility, hard work, technological modernization, education, environmental responsibility, and the strengthening of a common civic identity. Its ideological formula is therefore neither classical conservatism nor social democracy, but rather state-centered developmental centrism. To a certain respect this program resembles political programs in the East Asian democracies (Japan, South Korea, etc).
This is an important change from the traditional function of Kazakhstan’s dominant party. Whereas Nur Otan and later Amanat largely functioned as broad parties of administrative and political consolidation (i.e. “parties of power”), Adilet seeks to present itself more explicitly as a party of modernization. Its role is to translate presidential reforms into policy and to mobilize social support for them.
The 2026 result gives this model an exceptionally strong parliamentary base: with 110 of 145 seats, Adilet possesses roughly three quarters of the Kurultai.
2. Auyl: agrarian interests combined with cultural conservatism
Auyl (“Village”)’s political profile is readily understandable to anyone familiar with the history of party politics in the post-Soviet space. Agrarian parties that emerged in the 1990s and early 2000s were often ideologically located on the left, in part because they represented the interests of former Soviet collective and state farm elites and frequently cooperated with, or electorally supported, Communist parties. Over time, however, this social base changed. In Kazakhstan, Auyl increasingly came to represent the interests of a modern agricultural sector, including commercial farming and agribusiness, while placing greater emphasis on traditional values, rural communities, national culture, and social conservatism. As a result, the party gradually moved away from its earlier left-agrarian profile toward a more conservative agrarian position.
Auyl emerged as the strongest of the smaller parties, receiving 6.26 per cent and ten seats. Yet this result also represents a marked electoral decline. In 2023, Auyl had obtained 10.90 per cent, making it the second strongest party in the proportional component of that election.
Auyl occupies perhaps the clearest sociological niche in Kazakhstan’s party system. It is fundamentally an agrarian and regional party, emphasizing rural development, food security, agricultural modernization, stronger regional economies and better infrastructure outside the largest cities. Its formula of “strong regions – strong center” summarizes this orientation.
At the same time, Auyl is not merely an economic interest party. Its platform also combines agrarian politics with relatively conservative communitarian themes: family, national traditions, cultural heritage, patriotism and the moral value of the responsible citizen. It can therefore be described as a form of agrarian communitarianism or moderate national conservatism, although it operates firmly within the general framework of support for the state’s modernization agenda.
Its decline from 10.90 to 6.26 per cent may indicate that part of the electorate attracted in 2023 by Auyl’s patriotic and socially conservative message migrated toward the much broader political platform offered by Adilet. Nevertheless, Auyl retained a distinctive constituency and still remains the second-largest party in the Kurultai.
3. Respublica: entrepreneurial modernization and a generational political niche
Respublica received 5.56 per cent and nine seats, compared with 8.59 per cent in its first parliamentary election in 2023. Thus, although the party survived the new electoral environment, it lost roughly three percentage points. Respublica is one of the most interesting products of the political opening that preceded the 2023 election. Unlike the older parliamentary parties, it was constructed around a younger generation of entrepreneurs and managers. Its political vocabulary emphasizes entrepreneurship, efficiency, modernization, digitalization and practical problem-solving.
Its ideological profile can best be described as economic pragmatism with a technocratic and entrepreneurial orientation. Its 2026 program was organized around the sequence “prosperous citizen – responsible society – effective state – secure country”.
This distinguishes Respublica from another right party Ak Zhol. Both appeal to entrepreneurial constituencies, but whereas Ak Zhol represents the institutionalized interests of established domestic business and has developed a long tradition of parliamentary economic advocacy, Respublica has sought to embody a newer, younger, more innovation-oriented segment of Kazakhstan’s middle class.
Its weaker result in 2026 suggests that the initial novelty effect surrounding the party in 2023 has faded. Some experts also say that since this party is the youngest, it still has no effective party machinery. An attempt to include popular figures to compensate for the absence of organization has not worked well. Yet crossing the threshold for a second consecutive election is politically important: it suggests that Respublica is becoming institutionalized rather than remaining a one-election project.
4. Ak Zhol: the established party of business
Ak Zhol (“Bright Path”) crossed the threshold with 5.21 per cent, securing eight seats. This was a significant decline from its 8.41 per cent result in 2023 and from the stronger positions the party enjoyed in several earlier parliamentary elections. Ideologically, Ak Zhol remains the closest Kazakhstan has to a classical economic liberal or pro-business party, although its contemporary position is more accurately described as entrepreneurial centrism.
Its historical transformation is particularly revealing. Ak Zhol emerged in the early 2000s from the reformist and initially oppositional Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan. Over time (particularly after Azat Peruashev became its leader in 2011) it evolved from a broad democratic opposition party into a highly institutionalized parliamentary representative of domestic entrepreneurs and private business. Its core issues now include protection of small and medium-sized enterprises, opposition to excessive taxation and regulatory pressure, limiting the expansion of the quasi-state sector, defending domestic producers, stronger parliamentary control over public finances and reducing the criminalization of economic disputes.
The arrival of Respublica has created an obvious competition within this electoral niche. Ak Zhol represents the older, institutionally established business community, while Respublica appeals more heavily to younger entrepreneurs, new-economy sectors and managerial constituencies. Their almost identical 2026 results – 5.21 and 5.56 per cent respectively – suggest that Kazakhstan now has two competing versions of pro-market or entrepreneurial politics.
5. OSDP: a small but remarkably stable social-democratic electorate
The Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP), the only left party in the parliament, received 5.11 per cent and eight seats. Numerically, its performance was strikingly stable, although, traditionally not very strong: it received 5.20 per cent in 2023. Among all the smaller parliamentary parties, OSDP therefore demonstrated the greatest electoral continuity.
Ideologically it also occupies the clearest conventional position on the left-right spectrum. OSDP explicitly identifies itself with social democracy and emphasizes redistribution, social protection, labor rights, stronger trade unions, political accountability, demonopolization, competitive elections and parliamentary government. Its 2026 program combines demands for social responsibility with technological and economic modernization. This makes it a moderate center-left party rather than a traditional socialist organization.
Historically, OSDP has also possessed stronger roots in Kazakhstan’s opposition tradition than most parties represented in parliament. It posed a left-wing alternative to neoliberal policy of the government for many years. Its survival at just above the threshold is therefore significant. It suggests the existence of a relatively small but persistent electorate for a more socially redistributive and politically pluralist alternative.
Paradoxically, because all the other smaller parliamentary parties lost considerably more electoral support between 2023 and 2026, OSDP’s unchanged five-per-cent constituency gave it greater relative parliamentary importance: its representation increased from four party-list mandates in the 2023 Mazhilis to eight seats in the larger Kurultai.
6. Ex-Communists and the Green lost the election
The most noticeable loser was the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, which fell from 6.80 per cent in 2023 to 3.11 per cent in 2026 and therefore lost its parliamentary representation. The party represents the successor to Kazakhstan’s Communist political tradition, but in recent years it has increasingly defined itself through the language of modern socialism rather than orthodox communism. Its program stresses labor incomes, social equality, healthcare, inclusion, affordable public services and reducing regional disparities.
Its problem is partly one of ideological competition. The social-policy agenda is now crowded. OSDP can articulate similar concerns through a contemporary European-style social-democratic vocabulary, while ruling Adilet party itself has incorporated social justice and redistribution into a broad centrist presidential agenda. Exclusion of former Communists from the Kurultai is therefore more than a simple electoral setback. It may represent the gradual decline of the post-Communist branch of Kazakhstan’s party system.
The other party excluded from the Kurultai was the Kazakhstan Green Party Baitaq (“Vast Land”), which received only 1.07 per cent, down from 2.30 per cent in 2023. The 2026 result suggests that environmental politics in Kazakhstan continues to function primarily as a cross-party issue rather than an independent electoral cleavage. Environmental concerns are increasingly incorporated into the programs of larger parties, including Adilet and Auyl, which reduces Baitaq’s ability to monopolize the issue.
7. Election Results: Key Takeaways
First, the overall outcome of the election – a decisive victory for the pro-presidential party combined with a nationwide turnout of 74.08 percent – points to a high degree of political stability. Turnout was almost twenty percentage points higher than in the 2023 parliamentary election, when it stood at 54.19 percent. The most striking exception was Almaty, where turnout was only 43.23 percent, the lowest in the country. Yet even there participation increased substantially from 25.82 percent in 2023. Astana, by comparison, recorded turnout of 51.67 percent in 2026.
Almaty’s distinctiveness is politically significant. It is the country’s principal student and educational center and, together with Astana, one of Kazakhstan’s most economically and socially developed urban areas. Unlike Astana, however, its economy and social structure are considerably less centered on the national government bureaucracy. Its persistently lower electoral participation may therefore reflect the existence of younger, more autonomous, socially differentiated and politically demanding urban electorate. How to engage this electorate is a challenge that the new party system will have to address in the future.
Second, the pro-presidential party now exercises overwhelming control over parliament, while at the same time having largely distanced itself from both the personnel and the ideological legacy of the preceding political era. A similar process of generational and personnel renewal can be observed in other parties as well, both at the national and regional levels. This is consistent with President Tokayev’s repeated emphasis that one of the goals of the political modernization is to create opportunities for new people to enter politics and public life.
Third, Kazakhstan has traditionally differed from countries such as Russia in the relatively limited role played by the political left, and especially by Communist forces. The latest election reinforced this pattern. Parties associated with the post-Communist left, as well as the New Left as Greens, failed to enter the Kurultai, although the Social Democrats did cross the electoral threshold. This suggests that the left forces remain fragmented and electorally weak, while the center, center-right, agrarian, and technocratic segments of the party system continue to dominate.
Fourth, the role of political parties themselves is clearly increasing. This is visible not only at the institutional level: the new constitutional framework has eliminated the previous combination of party and regional representation in parliament, making political parties the principal foundation of national representation. At the same time, modernization appears to be taking place inside the parties themselves. One notable feature of the campaign according to the opinion of some interviewed experts was the declining role of outside political consultants and public-relations specialists. For many years, the extensive use of specialized campaign and PR consultants was a characteristic feature of electoral politics across much of the post-Soviet space, including Kazakhstan. In the 2026 election, by contrast, party organizations themselves increasingly controlled campaign strategy and implementation. The institutionalization of Kazakhstan’s parties has been a gradual process, but its maturation has now coincided with the constitutional consolidation of parties as the central actors of the political system.
Fifth, artificial intelligence emerged as a visible feature both of the campaign itself and of party programs. AI was used in the production of visual and textual campaign content, as well as for analytics, while at a more substantive level it occupied an important place in the modernization agendas of several parties. This reflects a broader shift in Kazakhstan’s political discourse: technological transformation, digitalization, and artificial intelligence are increasingly treated not as narrowly sectoral issues, but as central components of the country’s long-term development strategy.