PSCRP-BESA Reports No 90 (Oct 18, 2024)
In continuation of the conflict surrounding Wildberries, on October 10, 2024, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, accused Senator from Dagestan, Suleiman Kerimov, and two State Duma deputies, Bekhan Barakhoev and Rizvan Kurbanov, of plotting to assassinate him. The statement was made during a meeting with representatives of Chechnya’s security forces. Kadyrov claimed there were witnesses who confirmed an attempt to arrange his murder. He also demanded that the named individuals prove to him that they were not involved in the assassination plot. Otherwise, he threatened them with blood vengeance.
Rizvan Kurbanov has already responded to Kadyrov’s statement, denying all accusations of involvement in the plot against the Chechen leader. Suleiman Kerimov has not responded publicly. However, in Dagestani social media, local officials, sports club staff, and others began posting messages and video statements in support of Kerimov. During the official opening of a new park in Makhachkala, Dagestan’s head, Sergey Melikov, stated that Kerimov can count on the support of the Dagestani people when he needs it.
In June 2024, the main owner of Wildberries (the Russian analog of Amazon), Tatyana Bakalchuk (who has now returned to her maiden family name, Kim), announced that Wildberries would merge with Russ, the largest advertising operator in Russia. Former husband of Tatyana, Vladimir Bakalchuk, who claimed to control 50% of the group’s shares, speculated about a hostile takeover of the company by one of the elite groups linked to Dagestan.
Among the owners of the company Russ Group are Levon and Robert Mirzoyan, Duma deputy Bekkhan Barakhoev, a representative of Dagestan, as well as the state-owned VTB Bank. Putin himself supported the initiative. The merger meeting with Putin was facilitated by Suleiman Kerimov, a prominent Dagestani businessman. Kerimov has been a member of the upper house of the Russian parliament since 2008, representing the Republic of Dagestan. There were rumors of an affair between Bakalchuk and Robert Mirzoyan, which could be one of the reasons for the rift between Tatyana and her husband.
In July 2024, Vladislav Bakalchuk complained about the situation to the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. It is important to note that Kadyrov also publicly challenged unnamed “prominent people from the Caucasus” (he was referring to Kerimov, Barakhoev, and Kurbanov, of course). On August 5, Wildberries completed its merger with Russ, but the Bakalchuks are now facing a legal battle over the division of assets. Both have made many public accusations against each other.
On September 18, a shooting occurred at the Wildberries headquarters in Moscow, Russia’s largest online marketplace. It was described as a violent attempt to seize assets, reminiscent of the chaotic 1990s. The attackers were mainly Chechens, including law enforcement officials subordinate to Ramzan Kadyrov, while the defenders were Ingush and Dagestanis. Two Ingush guards were killed, sparking outrage in Ingushetia, with many calling for vengeance against the Chechens.
Despite efforts to frame the conflict as business-related, it has fueled anti-Chechen sentiment in Ingushetia. Protests erupted when the bodies of the two guards were returned to the republic, with demonstrators expressing anger at perceived Chechen aggression. A recent meeting in Moscow between Chechen and Ingush delegations failed to ease tensions, with Chechen leader Adam Delimkhanov openly threatening the Ingush representatives. He emphasized the unity of the Vainakh people (which includes both Chechens and Ingush) against external forces, though the conflict suggests deeper inter-ethnic strife.
Vladislav Bakalchuk was arrested after the shooting at the Wildberries office but was later released, likely due to the intervention of Kadyrov or other patrons. Kadyrov’s statements about blood vengeance sparked a new wave of ethnic tensions, now not only between Chechnya and Ingushetia but also between Chechnya and Dagestan. These two republics have a long history of conflicts, particularly dating back to the early days of the Second Chechen War.
The paradox lies in the fact that Dagestan’s political elites showed the most loyalty to Russia during that period, expecting a reward in return. Dagestanis actively resisted Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev’s attempt, supported by the local Al-Qaeda unit led by Jordanian terrorist Khattab, to seize Dagestan and establish an Islamic state in the North Caucasus. However, after Akhmad Kadyrov switched sides to support Putin, he, and later his son, became the informal leaders of the entire North Caucasus. As a result, the Dagestani elite has always tacitly disapproved of Putin’s decision to back Chechnya, led by the Kadyrov family, instead of them.
The conflict is not only ethnically driven but also represents a confrontation between different influence groups in Moscow. Suleiman Kerimov is rumored to be closely connected with the head of the Presidential Administration, Anton Vaino, and overall has an influence group comparable to that of Kadyrov. The latter, in fact, lacks close allies in Moscow and largely maintains his position due to the personal support of Putin, who views Kadyrov as a guarantor of peace in the Caucasus. Kadyrov is also the real master of Chechnya and the most influential person in the North Caucasus.
The conflict between such powerful forces could be very serious. Moreover, it clearly has an ethnic dimension, which makes it potentially dangerous for the stability of the North Caucasus. On the one hand, Kadyrov’s supporters among the Chechens could take a stand, while on the other side, Dagestanis, Ingush, and possibly even Chechens opposed to Kadyrov (especially those in political exile) may align. Theoretically, many Russian nationalists dissatisfied with Kadyrov’s strong influence, as well as Russian security forces, could join the conflict, as many of them still remember that Kadyrov and his supporters actively fought against Russia and Russians in the past.
Currently, experts and commentators are divided on how the Russian leadership will respond to this conflict. Most believe that this conflict could pose a serious threat to Russia’s stability. Kadyrov is challenging the position of the president himself, who approved the merger of the two companies. The struggle between interest groups over the division of Wildberries bears a striking resemblance to the gang wars of the 1990s. The entire ideology of the Russian leadership is based on the notion that Putin established the dominance of a strong state and put an end to the banditry in the country. Therefore, Kadyrov undermines this key point in Russia’s internal propaganda. Additionally, an ethnic conflict could severely weaken the Russian state’s position in the Caucasus.
However, a minority of experts believe that Putin might find the conflict beneficial. First, his power has always been built on balancing various competing influence groups. Kadyrov, who deliberately distances himself from Moscow’s different factions and declares his loyalty to Putin personally, serves as a good counterbalance to many groups. Secondly, discussions about possible decolonization of Russia, particularly the separation of the North Caucasus, have intensified in exile circles in the West. In this sense, Russia’s leadership would find it disadvantageous for North Caucasus groups to unite against Moscow, while their conflicts could be beneficial. The population of the region, based on the current conflict over Wildberries, could decide that the future of the Northern Caucasus without the Leviathan of the Russian state, Pax Russica, or Moscow’s imperial influence could be a constant Hobbesian “war of all against all.”
If the first group of experts is correct, Kadyrov may soon face the same fate as another disruptor within the Russian elite, the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. It’s worth recalling that with Kadyrov’s health deteriorating in the recent past, rumors have circulated about his possible poisoning by rivals from competing power factions. If the second group of experts is right, Kadyrov will retain his power over Chechnya this time as well. After all, there have been many instances in the past when he seemed to break all the unwritten rules of behavior for members of the Russian elite, yet Putin always forgave him. Perhaps the Russian president will forgive and support the Chechen leader once again.