On June 27th, 2024, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University organized a seminar titled “Vectors and Cleavages of Post-Soviet Conflict Dynamics”. The seminar has symbolically marked the first year of the work of the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program (PSCRP) established at BESA in summer of 2023.
In their keynote, Prof. Ze’ev Khanin, the PSCRP director and professor at the Department of Political Science at BIU, and Amb. Zvi Magen of the Tel-Aviv Institute of National Security Studies delivered a presentation on the repercussions of the Israel-Hamas war for the post-Soviet space. They concentrated on local perceptions of Middle Eastern realities and the instrumental use of war by the parties to the post-Soviet conflicts. Russia has almost openly supported Hamas (as a satellite of Iran, currently Russia’s closest partner in the Middle East that supplies weapons to the Russian regime). Although pro-Palestinian narratives are widespread both in the Russian media and in the official discourse, which results in general anti-Israeli sentiments, it is doubtful that Russia is directly involved in the current conflict. However, the Kremlin may use the new situation to strengthen its weakening positions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Caucasus. The Russian interest lies in framing the Israeli war against Hamas as a failure of US diplomacy, which is believed to have “monopolized” the regional peacebuilding process. Also, it is in Russia’s interests to freeze the Saudi-Israeli normalization and the building of an alliance between the US, Israel, and the “Saudi bloc”. Thirdly, the attention and resources of “the West” might be redirected from Ukraine to the new regional war in the Middle East.
Dr. Velvl Chernin (PSCRP) spoke about the ethnopolitical implications of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He underlined the vision of the war as, among other things, a war of narratives: millions of people of Ukrainian ethnic origin, who have adopted the Russian “imperial” identity, are taking an active part in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, millions of Ukrainian citizens of Russian and mixed ethnic origin reject Russian identity in favor of the Ukrainian one and actively participate in Ukraine’s defense. In parallel, a certain split in the Russian opposition also became apparent, based on ethnic narratives. While the “metropolitan” opposition insists on preserving a united Russia doomed to democratization, some activists of ethnic and regionalist movements put forward the slogan of “decolonization of Russia”.
Dr. Petr Oskolkov (PSCRP and Ariel University) provided an overview of the historical background and the current state of affairs regarding the sociopolitical situation in Estonia and Latvia. They fit well into Rogers Brubaker’s model of a triadic nexus formed by an ethnic minority (Russophones), a nationalizing state (in these cases, a project of nation-state building asynchronous to most other North and West European countries), and a “kin state” (in this case, Russia that tries to capitalize on the presence of a significant Russian minority). The sociopolitical situation surrounding the “Russian problem” in Estonia and Latvia after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine is characterized by changes in the party landscapes: major “catch-all” parties that have for many years incorporated the “Russophone” agenda, are in decline because of the distrust among both major ethnic segments of the population. This leads to massive protest voting and the emergence of radical populist party actors, whose participation in a democratic electoral competition might be potentially detrimental to these countries’ sociopolitical consensus and geopolitical resilience.
Prof. Andrei Kazantsev (PSCRP and Eurasian National University, Astana) drew the audience’s attention to the role of Central Asian states as power brokers and game changers in the current international situation. Today, Uzbekistan is second in the post-Soviet area after Russia by its population, while Kazakhstan is second after Russia by GDP. These states’ multi-vector foreign policies emphasize neutrality with an attempt to capitalize on ties with everyone, which resembles the “non-alignment” movement during the first Cold War. Central Asian states want to remain neutral in Russian-Ukrainian and Arab-Israeli conflicts, as well as in the more over-encompassing conflicts between Russia and the West and China and the West. Iranian special services and ISIS-Khorasan tried to organize terrorist acts with the assistance of recruited Central Asians (mostly, Tajiks), the most successful of them were in Russia. The key issue from the point of view of the war in Ukraine is the smuggling of strategic goods to Russia through Central Asian countries. Sometimes, the neutrality of Central Asian nations is presented as the role of “middle powers” as defenders of multilateralism. One of the key issues today is these nations’ dependence on trade routes to Europe controlled by Russia, and attempts to overcome this by constructing a new trade route through the Caspian Sea.
Dr. Nati Сantorovich (PSCRP and Nativ) presented his analysis of the current wave of antisemitic rhetoric in the post-Soviet region, especially concentrating on the official and semi-official narratives in Russia and Belarus. He also provided historical feedback and tracked the changes official and “popular” antisemitism has undergone in these countries since October 7, 2023.
Dr. Elina Bardach-Yalov (PSCRP and Hadassah Academic College) provided a view of antisemitic escapades as “tools” for conflict resolution in the post-Soviet space. Antisemitism is one of the most pressing problems in the eyes of those Israeli citizens who have repatriated to this country from the post-Soviet space. It is not surprising that, according to the author’s original survey, antisemitism in their country of origin was the primary reason for 34 percent of them to repatriate to Israel. Nowadays, some post-Soviet countries attempt to solve their internal problems by igniting antisemitic sentiments among their citizens. Through the examples of Belarus and Armenia, Elina Bardach-Yalov demonstrated the positive correlation between the salience of political and economic problems and the rise of antisemitism in the public discourse.
All presentations were followed by a vivid discussion: the seminar gathered a wide audience of experts in the field from such institutions as Tel Aviv University, the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (Reichman University), and others, as well as representatives of several media agencies. Their commentaries have significantly contributed to the understanding of the problems discussed.
As a conclusion, Haim Ben Yaakov (CIO of the Euro-Asian Jewish Congress, which is the PSCRP’s co-founder, and Tel Aviv University) underscored the impact that the phenomena studied by the PSCRP have on the Jewish population in the post-Soviet region. He highlighted once more the significance for the Israeli decision-making community of studying security, internal sociopolitical and international conflicts, and the geopolitics of the post-Soviet countries.
