What Biden’s Victory Means for Turkey

If Joe Biden remains loyal to his pre-election rhetoric, he might punish Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey with a slew of sanctions for buying critical weapons systems from Russia and helping to weaken US sanctions on Iran. But Biden’s history with Erdoğan gives mixed indicators of how he might deal with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian leader. Biden will not be able to opt for a pragmatic approach to Ankara completely free of concerns over civil liberties and human rights—Turkey’s ever-widening democracy deficit makes that impossible. But Erdoğan’s team can “buy” a new modus operandi with Washington under Biden.

Erdoğan’s Costly “Make Turkey Great Again” Program

Erdoğan’s “Make Turkey Great Again” campaign has come with military, diplomatic, geostrategic, and economic costs. Turkey’s posing as a military might has been met by Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s credit rating to B2, putting the country on a level with Egypt, Jamaica, and Rwanda.

Turkey’s Relationship with ISIS Proves It Is Deserting Its European Allies

ISIS was so successful in 2014 in part because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey is a vocal supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. Any distance Erdoğan has placed between himself and ISIS is attributable to pressure from Russia, the US, and Europe, not to his rejection of the group’s Islamist ideology.

Erdoğan and His Arab “Brothers”

Burak Bekdil
October 5, 2020
Paper No. 1769

After the infamous Mavi Marmara incident of May 2010, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and then foreign policy tzar Ahmet Davutoğlu (later PM and now an Erdoğan opponent) pledged to internationally isolate Israel. This was intended to help them advance their Islamist agenda and augment an emerging unity in the umma, preferably under Turkish leadership. A decade later, pragmatic Arab states are lining up to normalize relations with Israel, leaving state actors Iran and Turkey as well as non-state actor Hamas in a punishing position of international isolation—exactly where Turkey wanted to push Israel.

Turkey: Islamism’s Corrupted Symbolism

Burak Bekdil
August 30, 2020
Paper No. 1720

The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque and the desire to “Turkify” place names reflect the Islamist “conquest fetish.” Modern Islamists in Turkey have created a new version of Islam for themselves that differs from the religion’s origins.

Why Did Erdoğan Convert Hagia Sophia Into a Mosque?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently converted Hagia Sophia from a museum into a mosque, a decision that apparently involved no consultation and was executed swiftly after a surprise announcement. What were Erdoğan’s true motivations in taking this provocative step?

Erdoğan’s Schoolboy Response to the Israel-UAE Deal

Burak Bekdil
August 27, 2020
Paper No. 1712

Turkey is protesting the UAE for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel—even though Ankara has had diplomatic relations with Israel for the past 71 years. If the UAE, as Ankara argues, has betrayed the “Palestinian cause” just by having diplomatic relations with Israel, then Turkey has been betraying the “Palestinian cause” since 1949.

Will Erdoğan’s God Stop the Turkish Lira’s Slide?

Burak Bekdil
August 20, 2020
Paper No. 1701

The Turkish lira’s unprecedented slide, on top of soaring interest and inflation rates, record unemployment, and recession, is contributing to a looming economic collapse. In the face of such gloom, President Erdoğan is offering his conservative supporters a new deal: I’ll give you more conservatism if you ignore the economic picture.

Turkey’s Generation Z: A Youth Challenge to Erdoğan

Burak Bekdil
August 10, 2020
Paper No. 1685

More than seven million Turks born around the millennium—Generation Z—will vote in the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023. By age group, they will be the next kingmakers. Studies show they remain distant to politics in general and Erdoğan in particular.

Confused Turkey: Westward Ho All Over Again?

Burak Bekdil
July 30, 2020
Paper No. 1668

Turkey, which has labeled onion traders terrorists, blames the Kurds for the turmoil in America, and encourages its own intelligence agency to kill Turkish journalists abroad who are critical of the regime, never ceases to amaze. The latest survey reveals that Turks consider America both the greatest threat to Turkey and the second-best choice as a foreign policy partner.