Turkey Will Not Alter Its Anti-Israel, Anti-Western Position Until It Pays a Price for It

In the first days of the war that broke out following the October 7 massacre conducted by Hamas, Turkey employed a relatively balanced discourse about it. But after the bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on October 17, Ankara hardened its stance and bluntly condemned Israel. This change in Erdoğan’s rhetoric reflects a long pattern of anti-Israel sentiment. Erdoğan's support for Hamas in the wake of the massacre pulls Turkey, a NATO member, further away from the West. As long as Turkey pays no price for its anti-Israeli rhetoric, it will continue, and the resulting distance between Turkey and the West could have serious consequences.

The Significance of the Upcoming Turkish Elections

The future of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political career will be decided on May 14, when his People’s Alliance will compete with the Nation’s Alliance in a presidential and parliamentary election round. Opposition parties hope to give a democratic and pro-Western boost to Turkey. The country is polarized and thus might be ready to make major changes, especially after 20 years of a single administration. Still, Mediterranean geopolitics are unlikely to be significantly affected regardless of the outcome. This is also true of Israeli-Turkish relations.

The Elections in Turkey 2023 – The Beginning of the Post-Erdoğan Era?

Prof. Efrat Aviv
May 4, 2023
Paper No. 2194

Turkey is approaching the centenary of its founding, a significant date not only for its past but also for its future. With the May 14 election approaching, polls and commentators are beginning to discuss the post-Erdoğan era. The upcoming elections are critical and may bring about a historic change in Turkish politics. As things currently stand, no electoral outcome is likely to result in a return to the “golden age” of relations between Israel and Turkey.

Disasters Expose Erdoğan’s Paper Tiger Sultanate

Wildfires and floods in August revealed how weak Turkey is in the face of natural disasters, and how skewed are the priorities of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Once again, Turks failed to unite in a time of national sorrow.

How an Erdoğan Crony Made a Fortune

The BMC affair is just one example of an Erdoğan business crony making hefty gains thanks to nepotism and favoritism.

Give War a Chance: Turkish Leader Finesses Political Defeat

Burak Bekdil
July 30, 2021
Paper No. 2109

Turks are hungry for fairy tales. Any feel-good news propaganda—including Erdoğan’s “The West, including the Germans, are jealous of us!” tirade—finds millions of receptive listeners in Turkey’s postmodern marketplace of absurdity.

Turkey’s Mobgate Reveals the Islamist Deep State

Burak Bekdil
July 20, 2021
Paper No. 2100

Revelations on YouTube by Turkish mob boss and Erdoğan ally Sedat Peker are rattling the Turkish government. Peker’s disclosures involve murder, rape, corruption, bribery, political assassination, drug smuggling, arms shipments to jihadists, and torture and violence committed on the government’s behalf to silence the opposition. Through Peker’s revelations, the Turkish people are witnessing the extent to which the Islamist “deep state” has exponentially flourished under Erdoğan’s rule.

Erdoğan’s Caricature State

Burak Bekdil
June 21, 2021
Paper No. 2077

Power fatigue per se does not fully explain the decline of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He will have a hard time uniting a majority of Turks around the flag and the mosque in the presidential elections of 2023.

Turks May Be Rediscovering the Merits of the Secular Paradigm

Burak Bekdil
May 20, 2021
Paper No. 2038

The departure of some Turks from Erdoğan-style manifest Islamism based on visible piety instead of spiritual and moral piety probably means their departure from Erdoğan’s voter base.

The Gara Affair: How Not to Rescue Hostages

Burak Bekdil
March 10, 2021
Paper No. 1958

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan needed a military success story, and the rescue of 13 hostages held by the PKK in northern Iraq would have fit the bill. Unfortunately, the operation was a tragic failure. Erdoğan now accuses the Kurds, Kurdish political parties, opposition parties, and even the Biden administration of responsibility for the disaster.