Erdoğan’s Turkey Cannot Modernize Via Constitutional Reform

Turks have been seeking to modernize their democratic culture for a century and a half. Recently, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged to reform the constitution. Beware of an Erdoğan bearing democratic gifts.

Islamism Is Stunting Turkish Academic Achievement

The success stories of Turkish Nobel laureate Aziz Sancar and the Turkish couple who developed a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus demonstrate that Turks are capable of spectacular achievements—provided they conduct their academic careers in the free world, not in a country strangled by an increasingly Islamist regime.

Profiling Erdoğan’s Fan Club—No Democracy, No Problem

Studies have shown that only 2.4% of Turks believe their country’s biggest problem is its democratic deficit. Advanced democratic standards, or the acute lack of them, have never been a game changer in any Turkish election. In other words, democracy does not sell in the Turkish market.

Israel, Don’t Trust Turkey

Rumors are circulating that an Israeli-Turkish rapprochement might occur soon. Jerusalem and other regional capitals should not fall yet again for Ankara’s deceptions.

The Turkish Air Force: Flying into the Abyss?

Turkey’s F-16s will be phased out in 10 to 15 years. Now that it has been kicked out of the US-led F-35 program and is facing US military sanctions, what can Ankara do to sustain aerial firepower? A Russian fighter seems the only feasible option, but even that may come too late.

Erdoğan’s Reckless Gambit: It’s Payback Time

US CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry are now official. The costs to Turkey of its S-400 deal with Russia have been enormous, both strategically and economically. Those costs will continue to rise exponentially and will push Turkey further into the Russian orbit.

Turkey’s Boycott Threats Are Preposterous

Ankara first attempted to use a commercial boycott as a foreign policy weapon in 1998, when Rome refused to extradite Kurdish nationalist Abdullah Öcalan. Turkey has made scores of national boycott attempts since then, but they invariably lose steam quickly. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s most recent boycott threat against France will be no exception.

Erdoğan’s “Please Sanction Me” Challenge

The EU does not have the option of being indifferent to the antics of neo-Ottoman bully Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Doing so would discredit the EU and weaken its soft power. But sanctions, if miscalculated, could create new problems if they go beyond the desired target. Surgical precision will be needed.

Erdoğan as Merkel’s Protégé

Rauf Baker
November 18, 2020
Paper No. 1824

Turkey’s relations with Germany have always been privileged, but Angela Merkel took that relationship even further by treating Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a protégé in the international arena. Their relationship strengthened in parallel with a significant increase in German-Turkish military and trade cooperation. But Merkel’s term is coming to an end, and there has been a noticeable shift in tone within the Berlin political establishment toward Ankara. The Turkish president will not be able to count on German benevolence forever.

Turkey vs. the West: A Tug of War Beyond the Aegean

The recent escalation of tensions in the Aegean has the potential to strengthen the political bond between Greece and its Western allies, as well as force the EU to shift from threatening sanctions on Turkey to actually imposing them. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will try to keep tensions high enough to present a heroic front to his Islamist/nationalist base but not high enough to trigger EU sanctions.