Shifts in Turkey’s domestic political orientation have led to a change in Ankara’s perceptions of its foreign policy roles and capabilities. The US has misunderstood and largely ignored this shift, failing to understand the implications of Turkey’s transformation under the AKP. A strong and comprehensive policy towards Turkey is long overdue.
Syria and Iraq have become battlefields on influence between Turkey and Iran. In Syria, a proxy war is underway, with Iran supplying weapons to its Alawite client and Turkey actively arming the opposition. In Iraq, Turkey and Iran vie for political influence along Sunni-Shiite fault lines.
As the turmoil in Syria continues and the security environment of Turkey worsens, two factors might lead to unilateral Turkish military intervention in Syria: a refugee crisis that forces Ankara to establish a buffer zone within Syrian territory, or defensive military measures needed to stop PKK terrorism.
Turkish demands are unreasonable and an apology will not change the anti-Israeli policy of an increasingly authoritarian and Islamist Turkey. Israel’s reluctance to criticize Erdogan’s government is construed as weakness and Jerusalem should take off its gloves in dealing with Ankara.
Turkey's foreign policy reorientation – away from the West and toward Islamist countries like Iran and Syria – changes the balance of power in the Middle East, negatively affects the pro-Western orientation of the Central Asian republics, weakens NATO, and threatens the East-West energy corridor.
The flotilla affair is just another reflection of the change in Turkish foreign policy, which has acquired a greater Islamic coloration, bringing about a distancing from the West. Only a change of government in Ankara can bring Turkey back into the Western fold
and restore the partnership between Ankara and Jerusalem.