Russia

The South Caucasus has been in a zone of political turbulence since September 2020, when after 44 days of fighting Azerbaijan managed to regain control over most of the occupied territories. Much more could have been achieved, however in November 2020 Moscow intervened, whose aggressive actions forced Baku to sit down at a virtual negotiating table with Armenia. However, subsequent events turned out to be extremely favorable for Azerbaijan and extremely unfavorable for Armenia.
Kazakhstan, now an independent state and formerly one of the republics of the USSR, has the longest land border with Russia. It stretches for 7,600 kilometers, a significant distance that necessitates Kazakhstan's constant balancing act in Russian-Kazakh relations. The war in Ukraine temporarily weakened Russian influence in Central Asia, but now things are returning to their previous state.
Russian aspirations in Africa (AI generated)
Receding on some fronts, the West seems to invite Russia to strain its forces and make mistakes. African leaders, however, are pragmatic: they are no worse than Moscow at calculating benefits and costs, and therefore will not refrain from turning proximity to Russia into a bargaining chip with Western partners. The war in Ukraine and sanctions are limiting Russian resources, making business difficult for Russian companies worldwide.
Border delimitation
Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the “just war”. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side – they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation.

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