Veterans of Combat Operations as a New Systemic Factor in Ukrainian Domestic Politics

In the first part of our study we examined the social and political role of “SVO veterans” in the contemporary political and public landscape of Russia. We concluded that this role is not only significant—it is configurational and systemic, and it is not painted strictly in black or white. This article focuses on the other side of the conflict in southeastern Russia and Ukraine and presents an analysis of the social and political roles of veterans of the conflict within Ukrainian politics and society—today and in the near future.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and the Abrahamic Accord 2.0

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has reenergized U.S. efforts to expand the Abraham Accords into a far more ambitious geopolitical framework. What began as a set of normalization agreements between Israel and key Arab partners is now evolving into a wider strategic architecture spanning the Middle East, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia. This report explores the opportunities and tensions emerging from this shift, with Kazakhstan’s unexpected early entry marking a significant new phase.

SVO Veterans’ as a New Systemic Factor in Russian Domestic Politics

The ongoing military conflict in the south-east of Russia and Ukraine is producing consequences that extend far beyond the battlefield. With hundreds of thousands of servicemen simultaneously deployed, the scale of participation is generating deep structural shifts inside Russia itself. This report examines how the formation of a new, massive cohort of “SVO veterans” is beginning to reshape the country’s political, social, and administrative landscape in ways that will define its internal trajectory for years to come.

The Russian Opposition and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)

On October 1, 2025, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) initiated a new platform for dialogue with representatives of Russian democratic forces in exile. This development reflects a strategic shift in Europe’s approach toward engaging with the Russian opposition amid the protracted war against Ukraine and highlights the growing recognition that Russia’s internal political transformation will be essential for ensuring long-term European security.

Parliamentary Elections in Moldova: Between Bad and Worse

The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won Moldova’s September 28 parliamentary elections with 50.2% of the vote and 55 out of 101 seats, ensuring a continued pro-European course during President Maia Sandu’s term. However, the pro-European leadership remains fragile, as PAS lost four seats and relied heavily on diaspora votes for its majority. Moldova’s deep societal divide is further intensified by Russia’s interference and the government’s alleged misuse of administrative power during the elections.

The Church, the Kremlin, and Armenia’s Tug-of-War with the Past

With parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026, Armenia’s political direction is entering a decisive phase. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s government is positioning itself as a reformist, pro-European force, while the Church-aligned opposition — increasingly backed by oligarch money and networks tied to Moscow — is framing the administration as traitorous and illegitimate. The recent arrests of clerics and figures like Samvel Karapetyan can be seen as a preemptive move to weaken this alliance before it consolidates into a formal electoral challenge.

Russian Separatism Problem: the Protest Movement in the Republic of Altai

In recent months, the Republic of Altai—a remote region in southern Siberia—has become an unexpected center of political unrest in Russia. The arrest of local activist Aruna Arna has drawn attention to growing tensions between Moscow’s centralized rule and regional demands for autonomy, revealing deeper social, ethnic, and environmental grievances simmering across Russia’s peripheries.

Russia, Kazakhstan, and the West: A Fragile Balance in Central Asia

Kazakhstan’s predicament is unenviable. The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine shattered the fragile balance it had maintained between East and West. Suddenly, neutrality became harder to sustain. Kazakhstan’s political and economic ties to Russia are deep, unavoidable, and in some cases coercive.

Diplomacy of Central Asian and South Caucasus States in Summer–Autumn 2025: Multivector Foreign Policy in Action

The core element in the foreign policy of post-Soviet countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus is so-called multivectoralism: maintaining relations with multiple global actors without binding themselves exclusively to any single one. These states seek to balance ties with the China–Russia axis and the collective West (including the USA and the EU—although it should be noted that the internal fragility of this grouping has never been as evident as it is now).

Kyrgyzstan: Still Moscow’s Client (Wooed by Beijing)

At the United Nations General Assembly this year, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov did not disguise where Bishkek’s loyalties lie. In his speech, he castigated Western sanctions on Kyrgyz banks and reaffirmed that his country would not sever ties with Russia. That intervention was not just diplomatic theater. It was a blunt reminder that Kyrgyzstan’s leadership views Moscow not as an optional partner but as the central axis of its political and economic survival.