The South Caucasus at a Crossroads: American Engagement, Russian Retrenchment, and the Contest for Armenia’s Future

The February 2026 visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Yerevan and Baku — the first time a sitting American vice president has set foot in either country — marks the consolidation of a deliberate strategic reorientation. Washington is moving to establish a durable presence in the South Caucasus at a moment when Russia’s credibility as a regional security patron has collapsed and Iran’s leverage over transit routes is under pressure. For Armenia, long considered Moscow’s most reliable client in the region, the moment is one of unusual and consequential opportunity.

European Embrace or Russian Straitjacket? Georgia’s Fateful Choice

The European Union’s 20th sanctions package marks an unprecedented escalation: for the first time, Brussels is targeting a port in a country that holds EU candidate status. Georgia’s Kulevi terminal, now implicated in facilitating Russian oil shipments, encapsulates a broader transformation underway in Tbilisi — one that is steadily converting a once-promising candidate for European integration into a facilitator of sanctions evasion for Moscow.

Constitutional Reform in Kazakhstan: Why President Tokayev May No Longer Need the Russians

Kazakhstan is rewriting almost its entire Constitution—and the stakes go far beyond parliamentary mechanics. Behind the talk of a unicameral legislature and a vice presidency lies a carefully staged power transition, a recalibration of foreign dependence, and a quiet effort by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to secure his post-presidential future without leaning on Moscow. This overhaul may redefine not only who governs Kazakhstan, but who ultimately guarantees that power.

Iranian Protest Movement as Seen from Kyiv and Moscow

At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, Iran was gripped by mass public protests unprecedented in recent decades both in scale and in the level of violence. They began as a reaction to the most severe economic and environmental crisis in the country’s history, which reached its peak by January 2026, but within a few days evolved into an anti-government political movement. At the time of writing, it is still impossible to determine whether the leaders and participants of the protests will succeed in overthrowing the fundamentalist regime of radical Shiite Islamists, or whether the authorities, as in the past, will manage to suppress the burgeoning revolutionary process.

“They Are Here to Stay.” The Phenomenalization of the Vietnamese Diaspora in Russia

Legal labor migration has become a defining political dilemma for aging societies, and Russia’s search for solutions reveals striking historical parallels. Tracing the half-century formation of the Vietnamese diaspora, the report shows how policies designed for temporary labor repeatedly produced permanent communities instead. The experience of “Russian Vietnam” challenges current assumptions that migrants from the “far abroad” will simply work, leave, and leave no lasting imprint.

Armenia at the Crossroads: The Perils of Strategic Ambiguity

As Yerevan simultaneously pursues a Trump-brokered peace with Azerbaijan and deepens ties with Tehran and Moscow, Armenia risks squandering historic opportunities while aligning with declining powers.

Reconfiguration of Power in the Middle East: The Russian and Post-Soviet Dimension

The revival of the Israel–Greece–Cyprus partnership reflects a broader realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean driven by Turkey’s expanding military posture, competition over energy routes, and debates on Gaza’s postwar future. These dynamics are embedded in larger connectivity projects such as IMEC and the Middle Corridor, while provoking sharp resistance from Ankara. Russia’s increasingly ambivalent stance suggests diminishing readiness to back Turkish ambitions as its own priorities shift toward Ukraine, Central Asia, and pragmatic engagement with Washington.

The Baltic Alarm: Why Europe Must Listen to Its Eastern Frontier

The Baltic states are preparing for war — not a hypothetical conflict decades away, but one their leaders believe could come within five years. “Russia is a threat today, tomorrow and in the long future,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo warned this month. The question is whether Western Europe will listen.

Antisemitic Conspiracy Narratives in the Post-Soviet Geopolitics

"Instrumentalization of antisemitism,” which means using this topic in isolation from real problems for political purposes, primarily to discredit opponents, has been used repeatedly in the post-Soviet space. Thus, since Russia’s succession and appending of the Ukrainian Crimea peninsula and active military and diplomatic involvement on the side of Eastern Ukraine separatists against the Ukrainian pro-European regime in 2014 and till now, both Kyiv and Moscow have viewed the Jewish world as a positive asset for the achievement of their immediate and strategic goals.

The Geography Trap: Cases of Kazakhstan and Baltic States

Kazakhstan should take notice. Moscow has a long record of turning yesterday’s partners into today’s expendable liabilities. Diversifying trade routes, investing in non-Russian infrastructure and reducing exposure to Russian transit systems are not luxuries; they are survival strategies.