Russian Foreign Policy: The Kremlin Has Learned to Bide Its Time

During simultaneous crises in Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, Moscow faced challenges that contained opportunities to reap geopolitical benefits. Moscow’s handling of these crises demonstrates that its policy toward its neighbors has evolved away from direct intervention and toward careful maneuvering, which is both face-saving and more geopolitically rewarding.

Alexei Navalny: “Prepared to Lose Everything”

The near-murder of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny last August, his return to Moscow in January, and the resultant protests attended by tens of thousands in more than a hundred Russian cities raise the question of how long the Russian people will continue to tolerate President Vladimir Putin’s repressive acts against political enemies and rivals.

Iran’s “Look To the East” Precludes Any Deal with the West

The Islamist regime in Tehran has delivered Iran to China in exchange for security guarantees against the West. While the regime was never in compliance with the original nuclear deal, its “Look to the East” should preclude any new deal with the West.

The EU and Russia: From High Hopes to Reality

EU-Russia relations are at their lowest since the end of the Cold War and show limited potential for meaningful improvement. The era of attempts to reset bilateral ties is over. The estrangement between Brussels and Moscow may contribute toward a strengthening of Europe’s ties to the US.

The Russian FM’s Gulf Tour: A Bellwether of US-Saudi Relations

As Russian FM Sergei Lavrov embarks on a four-day visit to the Gulf, Middle Eastern leaders are either struggling to get a grip on Joe Biden’s recalibration of US policy in the region or signaling their refusal to adapt to the president’s approach.

Alexei Navalny and Public Dissent in Russia

The massive protests staged in Russia by supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny pose a serious threat to the country’s political elite. The Kremlin has a problem on its hands no matter what it does. Whether Navalny is kept in prison or released, his movement will be strengthened, and it has the potential to fuse to broader public dissent over Russia’s long-term economic performance and government ineffectiveness.

Erdoğan’s Reckless Gambit: It’s Payback Time

US CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry are now official. The costs to Turkey of its S-400 deal with Russia have been enormous, both strategically and economically. Those costs will continue to rise exponentially and will push Turkey further into the Russian orbit.

Biden and Russia: Pressure, But Not Too Much

As the world awaits Joe Biden’s inauguration as president of the US, Washington’s relations with China are under primary scrutiny. However, ties with Russia are no less important, as the two states have numerous differences across Eurasia. Washington will have to apply a careful balance of pressure on Russia to keep it from growing closer to China, and Biden possesses the statesmanship and experience to accomplish this. US-Russia relations under Biden should be strikingly different from what they were during the Trump administration.

Did Putin “Vote” for Biden?

After four years of supporting Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to curry favor with Joe Biden days before the US presidential election. He did this despite Biden’s sharp anti-Russian rhetoric and amidst the Democrats’ four-year-long accusation that Trump had colluded with Russia (with Biden himself calling Trump “Putin’s puppy”). Putin will never allow personal preference of one leader over another to override Russian national interests, and it is those interests that will dictate his diplomatic approach to President Biden.

Turkey’s Win-Win Strategy in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has become an important component of Turkish foreign policy. Over the years, Ankara’s support for Baku has grown exponentially. Diplomacy was an element of this support, but more significant was the dispatch of sophisticated weaponry. Greater support for Azerbaijan coincided with Turkey’s more active foreign policy in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and is now strikingly different from Ankara-Baku relations of the 1990s and even the early 2010s. The reason for Ankara’s assertiveness could be access to energy and trade routes.