Nagorno-Karabakh: The Caucasus Time Machine

Lev Stesin
November 4, 2020
Paper No. 1799

No major power has attempted in earnest to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, and some have actively participated in keeping the situation ablaze. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been actively preparing for hostilities, but Armenia finds itself at a political and military disadvantage.

As Turkey’s Lira Tumbles, Erdoğan Pursues Neo-Ottoman Visions

The Turkish lira sank to a record low on October 22—a new blow for the Turkish economy, which has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic. The Islamist government led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing an increasingly daring neo-Ottoman policy throughout the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean, a push that is motivated in part by the need to help the economy bounce back.

Erdoğan’s Costly “Make Turkey Great Again” Program

Erdoğan’s “Make Turkey Great Again” campaign has come with military, diplomatic, geostrategic, and economic costs. Turkey’s posing as a military might has been met by Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s credit rating to B2, putting the country on a level with Egypt, Jamaica, and Rwanda.

Turkey’s Relationship with ISIS Proves It Is Deserting Its European Allies

ISIS was so successful in 2014 in part because President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey is a vocal supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. Any distance Erdoğan has placed between himself and ISIS is attributable to pressure from Russia, the US, and Europe, not to his rejection of the group’s Islamist ideology.

Erdoğan and His Arab “Brothers”

Burak Bekdil
October 5, 2020
Paper No. 1769

After the infamous Mavi Marmara incident of May 2010, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and then foreign policy tzar Ahmet Davutoğlu (later PM and now an Erdoğan opponent) pledged to internationally isolate Israel. This was intended to help them advance their Islamist agenda and augment an emerging unity in the umma, preferably under Turkish leadership. A decade later, pragmatic Arab states are lining up to normalize relations with Israel, leaving state actors Iran and Turkey as well as non-state actor Hamas in a punishing position of international isolation—exactly where Turkey wanted to push Israel.

Greek Deterrence of Turkey: Living to Fight Another Day

Greece is facing a serious security challenge from Turkey, a fellow NATO country. The recent deterioration of bilateral relations has generated suspicion and distrust in Athens. The upcoming exploratory talks are bound to fail. The Greek deterrence strategy is shifting significantly because the possibility of conflict is growing.

The Dangerous Waters of the Mediterranean

The national agendas of Greece and Turkey continue to clash in the Mediterranean. Even if Turkey discontinues its explorations south of the Greek island of Kastelorizo in the medium term, it will be difficult for the two to conduct a productive bilateral dialogue. The European idea of a multilateral summit of all Eastern Mediterranean countries is more promising, but not yet concrete. Israel supports the right of Greece to delimit its continental shelf and favors regional cooperation as a member of the East Med Gas Forum (EMGF), but understands that as matters stand, the possibility of a breakthrough is limited.

Now Is the Time for the US to Revive the Cypriot Peace Talks

In order to counter Ankara’s aggression in the eastern Mediterranean and disrupt its plans to dominate Cyprus, the US should make a peace deal on the island a top regional priority for 2021.

From Tripoli to Tripoli, Turkey’s Real Aim Is Egypt

The recent explosion at Beirut Port highlights both Turkey's growing defense cooperation with Iran and its strategic interest in Lebanon, which facilitates Ankara’s provocative and worrisome agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey’s unrestrained aggression in that region may be a diversionary tactic from its slow and patient pursuit of a complex strategy to surround Egypt with hostile forces on multiple fronts and undercut its powerful regional role.

Turkey: Islamism’s Corrupted Symbolism

Burak Bekdil
August 30, 2020
Paper No. 1720

The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque and the desire to “Turkify” place names reflect the Islamist “conquest fetish.” Modern Islamists in Turkey have created a new version of Islam for themselves that differs from the religion’s origins.