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Turkey

Turkey, which has labeled onion traders terrorists, blames the Kurds for the turmoil in America, and encourages its own intelligence agency to kill Turkish journalists abroad who are critical of the regime, never ceases to amaze. The latest survey reveals that Turks consider America both the greatest threat to Turkey and the second-best choice as a foreign policy partner. 
Ankara’s moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, while very risky, have partly vindicated President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At a time when his regime is faced with serious challenges at home, his Mediterranean adventures have been good for Turkey at the regional level. Other powers will have to consider how to respond to Turkey’s moves. Washington’s lukewarm support for the trilateral partnership of Israel, Cyprus, and Greece, for example, has not met the high expectations of those countries, which continue to function as a pillar of stability in the Basin.
America’s reputation as a credible actor is an essential matter for US foreign policy, but it has weakened significantly throughout this century. George Bush’s war on the “axis of evil” failed, and Barack Obama’s “red line” speech proved empty. Today, Donald Trump is abandoning allies and conducting dangerous diplomacy with anti-democratic tyrants.
The Turkey we once knew no longer exists. Despite NATO objections and US warnings, Ankara acquired the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system from Russia. In response, Washington canceled Turkish participation in the F-35 program. In the latest episode of this saga, a Turkish court sentenced a US Consulate employee to almost nine years in prison for aiding the Gülen movement. President Erdoğan has behaved like a bully toward the EU, weaponizing Muslim refugees and migrants. He has also issued direct threats to Greece and regularly antagonizes Israel.  
Europe is being progressively sucked into the Middle East and North Africa’s myriad conflicts. As if wars on its doorstep in Libya and Syria were not enough, UAE support for an Eastern Mediterranean pipeline that could hurt Qatar economically—combined with Greek, Cypriot, and French opposition to Turkish moves—leaves Europe with few, if any, options but to get involved.
Only 12% of Turks say they trust Islamic clerics, and more and more young Turks are unhappy at religious school. As high a proportion as 60.5% of pro-Erdoğan youths say they would rather live in Switzerland with half the salary they could have earned in Saudi Arabia. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.99—below the 2.1 rate required to sustain existing population figures. Despite Erdoğan’s unchallenged popularity, power, and authoritarian rule, Turkey is evolving demographically in a way that defies the dictates of Islamist social engineering.
Turkey and Russia are embroiled in separate proxy conflicts on multiple fronts in Syria and Libya, but could be on a collision course in the complex political landscape of Yemen. This can be avoided if Turkey does not try for an aggressive Islamist takeover and respects Russia’s desire to share gas profits, exercise political influence with whatever factions end up dominating the sphere, and retain access to strategic waterways.

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