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There have been many reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas but no concrete results. In return for handing over the remaining hostages, Hamas and its partner/rival the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are demanding a complete and final ceasefire, total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza territory, the release of all their members held in Israel (more than 5,000), and international guarantees that Israel will not renew its offensive afterwards. Israel obviously refuses to accept these conditions. Despite the media noise around demonstrations by families of hostages and groups supporting them who demand that Israel accept these demands (not all the families agree), polls show that the vast majority of the Israeli public does not agree, and so far, neither does the government. The argument put forward by those against the deal is that accepting it might save the current hostages but would cost many more times that number of Israeli lives in the future. Israel has sent a counteroffer, but details have not been published by reliable sources.
Israel’s ship of state, facing rough seas, is at high risk and requires clearer rules of navigation. During this period of deep complexity, Israel will need to clarify its strategic direction. The terrorists of Hamas are the tip of Iran’s much larger spear. Israel’s current war against jihadist criminality could thus turn into a wider and more damaging war with Iran. Such a war could emerge as a “bolt from the blue” or incrementally. Ultimately, it could involve the United States, Russia, China, Pakistan, and/or North Korea. How might Jerusalem prevent or manage any such derivative conflicts? Israel must consider whether there is a productive role to be played by the “Samson Option.”
Israel’s war in Gaza, which is being waged in response to the devastating Hamas attacks of October 7, has prompted a surge of anti-Zionist discourse among many Muslims in the West, including in the US. The American Muslim community has been politically active since 9/11. Muslim activists, clerics and Islamic organizations are among the most prominent Western voices condemning injustices against Muslims worldwide, and the Palestinian cause is often a priority. President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in the Gaza war has angered many in the American Muslim community, and they may wish to punish him for that support in the November election. Will American Muslim opposition to Biden’s support for Israel have a political impact on the US election?
© IDF spokesperson
The occupation and holding of territory, which used to be a central component of the IDF's war concept at all levels, became almost irrelevant during Israel’s many years of fighting terrorism and guerrillas in Gaza and Lebanon. But there are three reasons why it is a big mistake to discount the value of conquered territory. First, the occupation by Israel of enemy territory (while evacuating the local population for its own protection) is considered by Israel’s enemies to be a painful loss, and the possession of territory can serve as a bargaining chip in political negotiations. Second, occupation offers the IDF an asymmetric advantage, as only it can occupy territory, clear it of the enemy, and protect it from counterattack. Third, after a long period of “wars of choice” in which Israel was the strong side, we have returned to the era of “wars of no choice” in which the occupation of territory has both internal and external legitimacy. These insights should be applied to any future war in Lebanon.
The IDF is winning the Swords of Iron War, and the position of the State of Israel is being strengthened. Wherever the IDF reaches, Hamas ceases to function as an organization and military force. Israel has had significant achievements in terms of the hostage deal and the IDF’s substantial operational successes against Hezbollah. Israel has also been assisted by the American coalition's activity against the jihadist threat, and there has been a positive change in the Russian approach to the war in light of Israel’s successes. India and Japan have also offered support, helping to balance international public opinion. The challenge will be to maintain and increase this positive momentum. To achieve this, it will be necessary to continue the war and seize the opportunity, both locally and internationally, to start a rebuilding process oriented towards creating a new local government in Gaza that is focused on the population's needs. The goal should be the establishment of a Gazan government that is capable of serving as an effective counterweight to any attempts by Hamas to reassert control.
UN agencies, government aid programs and NGOs have consistently and willfully aided and abetted Hamas as it built its vast terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. They diverted aid money to Hamas to fund its terrorist activities, provided propaganda and disinformation support to Hamas in its efforts to tarnish and discredit Israel, and indoctrinated Gazan schoolchildren to hate Jews. Systematic documentation of the roles played by UN and government officials, as well as NGOs operating under the vast framework of international humanitarian aid, in enabling and cooperating with Hamas, both tacitly and actively, is vital to prevent a repetition of this abdication of responsibility and accountability. 
Despite compelling logical and historical arguments against a two-state solution, louder and louder demands for a Palestinian state are being voiced worldwide. In response, Israel and its allies should remind global governments and populations that “Palestine” has no intention of ever living peacefully alongside Israel, but intends instead to replace the Jewish State in orchestrated and increasingly violent increments. Any pre-independence Palestinian commitments to remain demilitarized could quickly and even legally be undermined.
The significance of US security aid to Israel extends well beyond the economic realm. It plays a crucial role in the nation's success and resilience. As Israel's war in Gaza continues, a war that was sparked by the invasion of Israel and large-scale massacre of Israeli citizens by Hamas on October 7, 2023, there is a growing call for a reassessment of this aid within the US Senate and among the American public. However, it is essential to remember that the bond between the US and Israel is reciprocal and yields benefits for both nations. Any decision to deviate significantly from the current arrangement would likely require much more substantial pressure on the US administration.
Though the issues of Palestinian statehood and nuclear war are usually treated by Israel as separate perils, they have the potential to intersect. Iran’s ties to an eventual state of Palestine, which are likely to be close, could lead to direct military conflict between Iran and Israel, and intra-crisis searches for “escalation dominance” by Tehran and Jerusalem could someday spawn a limited or even regional nuclear war.

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