Iron Swords II: ‘It is a New Regional Order, Stupid’, and it must include the Demilitarization of Political Islam

In the coming years, global attention to the Middle East will diminish except in extreme crisis situations. The Israel-Saudi-moderates coalition will mainly bear the burden of stabilizing regional security. The current crisis, in which the United States is aligning with Israel in full capacity, must be used to establish - at both the ground and the political levels - the principle of stopping political Islam from controlling any military capabilities. The campaign to defeat Hamas is a step in this direction.

Iron Swords I: A Fundamental Miscalculation on Both Sides That Must Lead to the Defeat of Hamas

The massive and horrifically destructive military invasion by Hamas into Israel on October 7, 2023 signifies a crisis in Israel’s security doctrine principles of the last two decades or more: a failure of early warning, a failure of defense, a failure of deterrence, and a failure of the minimal casualties ethos. These have combined to create an overwhelming security crisis. The events of October 7 created a new strategic clarity regarding another principle: Israel must achieve a comprehensive military decision on Hamas and fully dismantle its governmental control. By committing this invasion, Hamas made a strategic mistake: It should have calculated that there was a possibility that the State of Israel would respond by acting to eliminate its physical existence. The most important thing in the coming weeks is to focus on achieving this goal.

How Dangerous Is the Crisis Within the IAF?

The ongoing turmoil in Israel has led to a crisis in the IAF that has affected the military readiness of the IDF at large. The degree to which the IDF is affected by the problems of the IAF depends on the nature and location of prospective confrontations. Whereas in the West Bank, the IDF does not rely on the IAF, the air force is obviously critical to the success of such missions as bombings in Syria – or in Iran, should Israel decide to strike the regime’s nuclear sites. And if war were to break out with Hezbollah while the IAF remains in crisis, the IDF would have to depend much more than it would otherwise on ground forces such as artillery, infantry, and armor.

The Shift in Technological Innovation from the Defense Sector to the Civilian Sector

Nir Reuven
July 4, 2023
Paper No. 2205

During most of the 20th century, the defense sector was the undeniable leader of technological innovation, with technology developed in defense labs often trickling into the civilian world. In the 1990s, however, due to a dramatic decrease in defense budgets and the streaming of funds to commercial applications led by startup companies and internet giants, the flow of innovation reversed direction. The defense sector has accordingly adopted an “Open Innovation” approach to exploit new technologies developed by the civilian sector.

The “Strategic Warning” Is Misguided

Recent papers by experts and think tanks claim that multiple negative trends occurring simultaneously in Israel’s strategic environment have coalesced into a major threat. There is in fact no clear connection between the trends they identify. The “strategic warning” is unnecessary and could even cause harm, as it distracts from continued critical engagement with the internal issues that are dividing Israeli society, makes it difficult to discuss the main strategic issues facing Israel, and causes an immediate focus on preparedness rather than orderly force build-up.

The New IDF Chief of Staff Faces an Array of Challenges

Yaakov Lappin
March 16, 2023
Paper No. 2187

The IDF’s 23rd Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, will need to safely and swiftly maneuver through a domestic minefield without entangling the military in politics. He will likely seek to prioritize the Iranian and northern arenas over the Palestinian arenas – provided the domestic political situation allows him to do so.

Israel’s Move to USCENTCOM is Transformational

Israel’s shift from USEUCOM to USCENTCOM is no less than a formal recognition of Israel as a regional heavyweight. The move has transformed the strategic landscape. Under USCENTCOM’s umbrella, the IDF is now conducting exercises with Arab militaries, opportunities in long-range air operations have emerged, efficiencies in missile defense have been created, and former adversaries are now eager to purchase Israel’s military technology. Also, the shift creates a more natural and cooperative military environment for the IDF.

The Terrorists’ Escape from Gilboa Prison: A Wake-Up Call for Israeli Society

Recent events, including the escape of six terrorists from Gilboa Prison and the death of Sgt. Barel Hadaria Shmueli, who was shot point blank by a Palestinian terrorist, represent a wake-up call for Israelis who have grown too accustomed to the pursuit of day-to-day quiet as a strategic choice. Whether Israelis recognize it or not, they are in a state of war with their enemies.

Into the Heart of a Hezbollah Terror Tunnel

The Arabic language desk of the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit marked 15 years since the Second Lebanon War by inviting Israeli media commentators to visit a Hezbollah terror tunnel on the border with Lebanon. I was one of the participants.

On Wars and Changing Threats

Israeli society must recognize the intensity of the new threats that surround it and critically assess the conventional wisdom that the era of big threats has passed and Israel need no longer be a “mobilized nation.”