If the US and the EU require other countries to halt their ties with Russia while these ties have nothing to do with security issues, it would be logical to expect a more coherent approach from the West: it should set the same conditions for Armenia if the Caucasian nation wants to pivot to the West.
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Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the “just war”. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side – they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation.
Armenia, like other post-Soviet countries, particularly in the southern region, traditionally pursues a multi-vector foreign policy. The aim of such a policy is to utilize different options to maximize foreign assistance and support. This often involves addressing unconventional tasks to balance conflicting foreign policy vectors. Armenia faces a similar task of balancing in the new configuration.
By signing military cooperation agreements with France and the United States, Armenia have chosen to "Go West" as the most logical substitution to a major vector of Yerevan former foreign policy line. However, Armenia’s estrangement from Moscow, seems leading it to and entirely different direction - eastward, towards Iran and India.
The ongoing war between Israel and the radical Islamist terrorist movement Hamas has a substantial symbolic and practical impact on the domestic political discourse and foreign policy of countries involved in military and geopolitical conflicts in other regions of the world, including the South Caucasus
The Eurasian Economic Union declared 2024 the year of IT technologies. This sector has long been well-developed in Armenia, with Armenian IT companies maintaining a close cooperation with Silicon Valley. Thus, Iran will have a unique opportunity to develop its IT technologies, which seemed quite impossible not so long ago.
In the Russian media, the objective coverage of the efforts of the Israeli authorities and military to counter the aggression of Hamas is growing thin. At the same time, stories full of sympathy for the terrorists and condemnation of Israel are becoming increasingly common. Many Armenian media outlets, social media and NGOs are joining in.
The establishment of Azerbaijani control over the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh has given rise to a wave of anti-Semitism in Armenia. The following anti-Semitic elements can be identified in contemporary Armenian public discourse.
The current Azerbaijani military operation in Karabakh was framed in Baku as anti-terrorist, since it came as a reaction to a series of subversive actions, including the killing 19 September of 6 Azerbaijanis by Armenian separatist paramilitary units. As far as Armenia is concerned, the further developments might depend on how the current government in Yerevan plays its cards and whether it will survive in case of the defeat (as it looks like happen now) of the Karabakh separatists. A most intriguing, among other questions, is: whether it will deepen Yerevan’s dependence from Moscow? Or could it be Armenia's path towards independence from Russia?
The military escalation that took place in Karabakh in November 2020, has fundamentally transformed the (geo)political configuration in the region. After the fall of 2020, the territory of unrecognized “Artsakh” – “Nagorno-Karabakh republic”, established in 1991 on the part of the territory of mostly populated by ethnic Armenians Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan, shrank almost four times. Azerbaijan has regained internationally recognized control of its lands and its refugees, who were forced out by the Armenians started to return there. Authorities of Armenia, historically a patron of the unrecognized enclave, are now actively preparing for a peaceful solution. However, this solution will be now probably written not in Yerevan.