In February 2026, the research by the PSCR program was focused on the dynamics in the European part of the post-Soviet space (namely, Ukraine and Belarus), the South Caucasus, and Kazakhstan.
Velvl Chernin recalls his recent long experience of visiting various Ukrainian cities and working with Ukrainian refugees, to tentatively assess the impact of the war on Ukrainian society. He notes the widespread fatigue of the war, embitterment towards Russians, and the similarities between Israeli and Ukrainian societies experiencing post-traumatic stress; the similarities are even more enhanced by the fact that many Jews and Israelis serve in the Ukrainian army, while a lot of Israelis of Ukrainian origin serve in the IDF. The author also stresses the importance of the societal divisions that emerged among Ukrainians living near the front line, in the rear, and in the occupied territories.
Boris Ginzburg analyzes Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s foreign policy specifics in light of his recent visits to several Middle Eastern and Northern African countries. Ginzburg emphasizes several structural characteristics of Belarus’ foreign policy highlighted by the leader’s MENA tour, namely, the use of foreign political moves to enhance domestic and international legitimacy, the personalist character of international relations and distrust towards the diplomatic profession, and the role of mediator often assumed by Lukashenka in international conflicts (even if such a role was not solicited). The author assumes these characteristics, if taken into account, might help Israeli foreign policy to more neatly leverage its diplomatic potential in dealing with Minsk, most importantly, to recalibrate the latter’s relations with Tehran.
The material by the PSCRP team reacts to the US Vice President Vance’s visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia in February this year. The authors describe the current geopolitical situation surrounding Armenia, which is disappointed in its strategic alliance with Russia and might seek alternatives, in cooperation with the U.S., to the Iranian influence. The paper argues that the window of opportunities for enhanced dialogue with South Caucasian nations is now open for Washington, due to the geopolitical realignments in the post-Soviet space. However, Yerevan’s strategic choice depends on the figure of Nikol Pashinyan, the incumbent prime minister, who faces growing opposition to his rule, partly influenced by Russia and by nationalist circles in the diaspora.
The PSCRP team assesses the reasons for and implications of the ongoing backsliding of Georgia’s EU accession process, symbolically marked this month by the inclusion of a Georgian port into another EU sanctions package. Reportedly, the port of Kulevi is increasingly used to circumvent the European sanctions against Moscow. The authors emphasize the role of the “Georgian Dream” party and its de facto leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, having close ties to Moscow, in the rapid re-orientation of Tbilisi’s foreign policy aspirations from EU-oriented to Russia-tied. They argue that the reasons might lie in the party’s unwillingness to implement the enhanced EU democratic control mechanisms, while cooperation with Russia might yield economic dividends without any infringements on the potential political monopoly. At the same time, Brussels’ available tools to influence Georgia remain limited, since targeted personal sanctions and suspending a EU candidate status require anonymity, which can hardly be reached.
Alexander Shpunt analyzes Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional amendments – a draft for a new Constitution, with 84 % of the text changed compared to the previous version, was published in January and will be subject to a referendum. The new constitutional draft significantly alters the entire structure of political power in Kazakhstan, inter alia, making the legislative organ unicameral and creating a post of vice-president. Shpunt argues that, considering the external danger of Russia’s influence (which the incumbent president is attempting to resolve by allying more closely with China) and the internal discrepancies caused by the residual presence of the former president’s inner circle, constitutional amendments may be aimed at preserving the incumbent’s position in power even after his official presidential term ends (in 2029). While preparing the reform, the Kazakhstan authorities have secured the ground by legally discouraging political opposition from parliamentary representation and any political activities, and by introducing stronger control over the media landscape. The author concludes that Kazakhstan’s strategic choices may be diverse, but all of them are highly dependent on the figure of the president.
Also, traditionally, Alexander Shpunt has prepared a monthly overview of significant and interesting publications concerning the conflicts and political transformations in the post-Communist space.
Despite the challenges of the turbulent global geopolitics, the PSCRP continues its work, highlighting the specifics of the intersection between conflicts and politics in the post-Soviet space. Stay tuned!