A New Lebanese Civil War?

Despite their desire to evict sectarianism from their country’s corrupt government, Lebanese civilians are likely to see increased tensions across religious lines. Iran will continue to back Hezbollah despite its regional weakening, while Turkey and Qatar will play a bigger counterbalancing role by increasing their influence on the Sunni community.

Israel and Lebanon to Open Negotiations

The announcement of the opening of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on the disputed gas reservoirs near the territorial waters of the two countries surprised many, though this will not be the first time talks have taken place between the two.

Turkey: Land of Heimatlos

Gloomy facts and figures about a country are one thing, but a sense among large numbers of citizens that they do not belong to their homeland is a different story. Recent research has found that 38% of Turks do not feel they belong in their own country.

The Qatar World Cup: Dreaming of Bridging the Gulf Rift

With the 2022 World Cup in Qatar only two years away and a resolution of the three-year-old Gulf rift nowhere in sight, government officials, soccer governance executives, and pundits are playing with the notion that the tournament could serve as an icebreaker in the dispute between Qatar and its detractors, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Algeria’s Referendum: Stirrings of Democracy and the Decline of Islamism

The events surrounding the recent constitutional referendum in Algeria reflect broader trends in the region and the prospect that Algeria might eventually join the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan in normalizing relations with Israel.

Did Putin “Vote” for Biden?

After four years of supporting Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to curry favor with Joe Biden days before the US presidential election. He did this despite Biden’s sharp anti-Russian rhetoric and amidst the Democrats’ four-year-long accusation that Trump had colluded with Russia (with Biden himself calling Trump “Putin’s puppy”). Putin will never allow personal preference of one leader over another to override Russian national interests, and it is those interests that will dictate his diplomatic approach to President Biden.

The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure

On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.

Erdoğan as Merkel’s Protégé

Rauf Baker
November 18, 2020
Paper No. 1824

Turkey’s relations with Germany have always been privileged, but Angela Merkel took that relationship even further by treating Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a protégé in the international arena. Their relationship strengthened in parallel with a significant increase in German-Turkish military and trade cooperation. But Merkel’s term is coming to an end, and there has been a noticeable shift in tone within the Berlin political establishment toward Ankara. The Turkish president will not be able to count on German benevolence forever.

“The Struggle for Palestine”

“The struggle for Palestine” has long been an axiomatic slogan in the Arab-Palestinian narrative and continues to be used to this day to galvanize the masses—but as the Middle East changes, the power of the phrase may be diminishing.

Economic Globalization After the Pandemic

A “mood swing” that negatively affected economic globalization started well before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. When Donald Trump began his term as president in 2016, he established a more confrontational US policy toward China. From the former ”feel good” one-world attitude, the world has been moving toward more fragmentation. Uncertainty surrounding the pandemic is intensifying this process. The mood of anti-economic globalization will be strengthened further by a substantial increase in unemployment in Western countries.

Perspectives Papers