Will the PA Erupt Over Israeli Sovereignty in the Jordan Valley?

No one really knows when mass violence will erupt. The self-immolation of a Tunisian peddler ignited a revolution in that country, but at least 40 similar acts in other Arab counties failed. The odds are against massive violence if Israel extends sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, but Israel’s security forces should nevertheless be prepared.

UAE-Turkey Rivalry Wreaks Havoc in Libya and Syria

The United Arab Emirates and Turkey are locked in a regional power struggle that has fueled conflict in Libya and could spark renewed fighting in Syria. This struggle, like that between Saudi Arabia and Iran, threatens to keep the Middle East and North Africa on edge.

Will Kurdish Unity Talks Lead to a More Muscular US Policy on Syria?

The US is backing Kurdish unity talks as part of a policy centered around appeasing Turkey’s national security concerns about the PYD’s essential role in Syria. However, all signs indicate that Turkey sees this gesture as no more than a ruse to normalize its enemies. Only a more involved and active US foreign policy will cement any gains around a more stable and unified Kurdish presence.

As US-China Competition Unfolds, Russia Watches Closely

Emil Avdaliani
June 26, 2020
Paper No. 1616

Russia’s position is crucial in the unfolding US-China competition. There are two likely scenarios. In one, Russia is able to maneuver between the powers and score geopolitical goals in its neighborhood and in the Middle East. In the other, Russia is cast by the West as an outright enemy, leaving little room for compromise and allowing the country to fall further under Chinese influence.

A Stand Must Be Taken Against the Promotion of Murder

In civilized societies action should be taken against anyone who expresses the desire to commit murder. The Iranian government, Hamas, Hezbollah, various clerics, and other influential figures within the Muslim world, as well as neo-Nazis and other extreme rightists, openly proclaim their desire to commit murder or even genocide against Jews and Israel. Many in the Western world either refuse to heed these statements or actively support them. Many others relentlessly criticize Israel and remain completely silent about Palestinian promotion of the killing of Jews.

Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Program: Approaching Breakout

Iran continues to insist that its nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes despite all evidence of its military nature. This evidence includes the IAEA’s recent findings regarding Tehran’s progress in the field of uranium enrichment. Given Iran’s current uranium holdings and enrichment capabilities, it can theoretically break out from its NPT commitment and develop its first nuclear bomb within four months.

Israel Shines in the Gulf Where Big Powers Falter—and That Could Be Tricky

Israel is proving to the Gulf States that it is a more reliable partner in some respects than big powers like the US, China, or Russia. But the limits of cooperation with Israel could come to the forefront at a time of economic crisis in which the Gulf States are likely to have to renegotiate longstanding social contracts.

The “Floyd Crisis” and How to Resolve It

Dr. Hanan Shai
June 22, 2020
Paper No. 1612

Although the “Floyd crisis” in the US contains the seeds of civil war, acknowledgment of the historical errors that gave rise to this crisis, taking responsibility, and making a commitment to rectify those errors could make this a shining moment for the American people and a milestone in the history of democracy.

Delhi Must Help Taipei Get Into the WHO

It is disappointing that the 73rd meeting of the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO), went ahead on May 18-19 without the participation of Taiwan. The dominant mood in the democratic part of the world has long been to bring Taiwan and its 23.8 million people into the WHO.

The West Bank’s Status Quo is More Dangerous than Applying Sovereignty

Contrary to the alarming charge that the application of sovereignty over parts of the West Bank would transform Israel into a binational state, doing so would not affect 95% of the West Bankers who have been living under the rule of the Palestinian Authority since January 1996. They will continue to do so. The move does entail political risks, but they are smaller than the security hazards that would accompany Israel’s inability to maintain a permanent security presence in the Jordan Valley.

Perspectives Papers