Syria Is Tempting, But Will China Bite?

China looms large as a potentially key player alongside Russia and Iran in President Bashar Assad’s post-war Syria. With Russia and Iran lacking the financial muscle and the US and Europe refusing to engage with the Assad regime, China is, from Syria’s perspective, a shining knight on a white horse. Syria could become a key node in China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—but it could also drag China closer to the Middle East’s multiple conflicts.

Five Reasons Why the West Will Lose Turkey

The Turkey we once knew no longer exists. Despite NATO objections and US warnings, Ankara acquired the advanced S-400 anti-aircraft system from Russia. In response, Washington canceled Turkish participation in the F-35 program. In the latest episode of this saga, a Turkish court sentenced a US Consulate employee to almost nine years in prison for aiding the Gülen movement. President Erdoğan has behaved like a bully toward the EU, weaponizing Muslim refugees and migrants. He has also issued direct threats to Greece and regularly antagonizes Israel.

Erdoğan’s “Holy Wisdom”—Why He Is Converting Hagia Sophia into a Mosque

On July 10, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that Istanbul’s famed Hagia Sophia, which was a Christian cathedral for centuries, then a mosque, and is now a museum, will be converted back into a mosque. This move was not motivated by religious fervor. It was a calculated political act that conforms to Erdoğan’s broader agenda.

UAE Targets Turkey and Qatar in the Mediterranean

Europe is being progressively sucked into the Middle East and North Africa’s myriad conflicts. As if wars on its doorstep in Libya and Syria were not enough, UAE support for an Eastern Mediterranean pipeline that could hurt Qatar economically—combined with Greek, Cypriot, and French opposition to Turkish moves—leaves Europe with few, if any, options but to get involved.

The Chinese Application of the Security Law in Hong Kong—Why Now?

In 1997, after 156 years of British rule, the United Kingdom transferred responsibility for the city-state of Hong Kong to China. Twenty-three years later, in 2020, China enacted a security law that extends its powers over Hong Kong in contravention of the terms of that transfer. In doing so, Beijing is signaling its determination to expand its area of control and influence even in the face of international criticism.

The Chinese Media’s Take on US Unrest

The state-controlled Chinese media enthusiastically covered the protests and rioting attending the George Floyd killing. It compared the American protests to the protests in Hong Kong and used the rioting and violence in the US as evidence that the democratic system is hypocritical and morally bankrupt.

Israeli Sovereignty and Its Unlikely Benefactors

Dr. Alex Joffe
July 13, 2020
Paper No. 1641

PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s enthusiasm for the idea of applying Israeli sovereignty to parts of the West Bank can be explained by the desire to seize the historic opportunity created by President Trump’s uniquely favorable attitude to Israel. There is another element, however, that warrants close attention: Netanyahu’s reaction to the Obama administration’s relentless hostility.

The Attacks on the Uniqueness of the Holocaust

The last decade has seen an explosion of attacks on the memory of the Holocaust. This expresses itself in many ways, including the casting of doubt on the Holocaust’s uniqueness. This version was aired in recent public debates in Germany and can also be found in historical manipulations by academic scholars.

The Rise of the Indo-Pacific

Emil Avdaliani
July 12, 2020
Paper No. 1639

The world is witnessing the rise of a new geopolitical concept: the Indo-Pacific. The shift of American attention toward the Indo-Pacific could create more room for maneuver for Russia and Iran in their respective neighborhoods over the long term.

Iran’s Lawfare in Europe Normalizes Its Geopolitical Strategy

Iran has shifted away from political assassinations of Ahwazi Arab and Kurdish opposition figures in Europe. It is now trying to normalize its ethnocentric, Khomeinist revolutionary agenda abroad by using lawfare and playing politics. This new approach is a more “diplomatic” and “acceptable” means of asserting hard and soft power, and poses a danger to the prospects for effective US sanctions enforcement.

Perspectives Papers