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Gaza

© IDF Spokesperson
In the coming years, global attention to the Middle East will diminish except in extreme crisis situations. The Israel-Saudi-moderates coalition will mainly bear the burden of stabilizing regional security. The current crisis, in which the United States is aligning with Israel in full capacity, must be used to establish - at both the ground and the political levels - the principle of stopping political Islam from controlling any military capabilities. The campaign to defeat Hamas is a step in this direction.
The massive and horrifically destructive military invasion by Hamas into Israel on October 7, 2023 signifies a crisis in Israel’s security doctrine principles of the last two decades or more: a failure of early warning, a failure of defense, a failure of deterrence, and a failure of the minimal casualties ethos. These have combined to create an overwhelming security crisis. The events of October 7 created a new strategic clarity regarding another principle: Israel must achieve a comprehensive military decision on Hamas and fully dismantle its governmental control. By committing this invasion, Hamas made a strategic mistake: It should have calculated that there was a possibility that the State of Israel would respond by acting to eliminate its physical existence. The most important thing in the coming weeks is to focus on achieving this goal.
Hamas will always prioritize its radical ideological and political objectives over pragmatic considerations whenever those two factors come into conflict. As Israeli decision makers monitor Hamas’s renewed efforts at force build-up following Operation Guardian of the Walls, they face dilemmas as they look for “least-worst” options.
Gaza residents refused to join Yahya Sinwar in celebrating Hamas’s “victory” in the recent clash with Israel: first, because they do not like being the human shields from behind whom Hamas launches its missiles; and second, because they are tired of being the only Palestinians to suffer 95% of the brunt of fighting that gets them no closer to “liberating” Jerusalem.

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