After the Gaza War: Why Palestine Would Be a Lawless and Militarized State

Despite compelling logical and historical arguments against a two-state solution, louder and louder demands for a Palestinian state are being voiced worldwide. In response, Israel and its allies should remind global governments and populations that “Palestine” has no intention of ever living peacefully alongside Israel, but intends instead to replace the Jewish State in orchestrated and increasingly violent increments. Any pre-independence Palestinian commitments to remain demilitarized could quickly and even legally be undermined.

Should Israel Be Concerned About the Potential Impact of the Gaza War on US Security Aid?

Nir Reuven
January 16, 2024
Paper No. 2255

The significance of US security aid to Israel extends well beyond the economic realm. It plays a crucial role in the nation's success and resilience. As Israel's war in Gaza continues, a war that was sparked by the invasion of Israel and large-scale massacre of Israeli citizens by Hamas on October 7, 2023, there is a growing call for a reassessment of this aid within the US Senate and among the American public. However, it is essential to remember that the bond between the US and Israel is reciprocal and yields benefits for both nations. Any decision to deviate significantly from the current arrangement would likely require much more substantial pressure on the US administration.

Dangerously Ignored Intersections: Palestinian Statehood and Regional Nuclear War

Though the issues of Palestinian statehood and nuclear war are usually treated by Israel as separate perils, they have the potential to intersect. Iran’s ties to an eventual state of Palestine, which are likely to be close, could lead to direct military conflict between Iran and Israel, and intra-crisis searches for “escalation dominance” by Tehran and Jerusalem could someday spawn a limited or even regional nuclear war.

An Opportunity for the US in the Middle East: 1973 vs. 2023

The Yom Kippur War of 1973 ended with a US-driven peace process that eventually led to Egyptian-Israeli peace. The war in Gaza, despite important differences, can do the same, kicking off a new American diplomatic effort that could eventually achieve an historic Israeli-Palestinian settlement linked to a broader Arab recognition of Israel.

How Will the Swords of Iron War Change Israel’s National Security Strategy and Doctrine?

Israel's national security doctrine collapsed on October 7, and the way in which the Swords of Iron War is being conducted is fundamentally changing its components. After the war is over, an in-depth review of the doctrine will be required. Fundamental questions will need to be discussed, such as: Is Israel giving too much weight to the Iranian threat? What is the basis of the national approach to the Palestinian issue? What is the right balance between independence and dependence on the United States? And is Israel a country that manages risk or actively shapes its environment? The main issue may be a return to the concept of preventive war and creation of a clear ranking between the core components of the doctrine – deterrence and decisive outcome – and the other components. It might be helpful to make these discussions part of binding legislation in which, for example, any new government would have to approve its National Security Strategy in the Knesset.

A New Existential War – Part III: Forming a Clear Post-War National Vision Means Returning to the Roots of Zionism

A New Existential War – Part II: Warfare Has Changed, and the Israeli Security Concept Must Change With It

On the morning of October 7, 2023, the strategic Israeli security concept collapsed, marking the end of the 30-year era since the Oslo Accords. With the shocking force of an earthquake, a cultural concept that had its roots planted in the dream of peace, and in the illusion that the State of Israel could aspire to become a kind of Denmark, disintegrated completely. For Israel to achieve victory in the war with Hamas, it will have to adapt its security concept to reflect a new and deeper understanding of the enemy’s perception of the nature of its struggle with Israel.

A New Existential War – Part I: Israel’s Perception of the Enemy’s Goals

Greece and the Israel-Hamas War

Greece’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war reflects the excellent status of its relations with the Jewish State. The swift expression of Greek solidarity with Israel after the Hamas terrorist attack of 7 October 2023, and the organization of events to disseminate the “Bring Them Home” message, demonstrate the country’s continuing support. Greece’s attitude can be divided in two distinct phases, however. While in the first weeks of the conflict the Greek government firmly supported Israel’s right to self-defense, from the beginning of November onwards, it shifted its focus to the humanitarian dimension of hostilities. This came as a result of an adjustment in the direction of EU foreign policy and in response to domestic public opinion.

Humility Is Required for Improved Intelligence After the October 7 Catastrophe

Israeli intelligence failures - particularly those leading to the failure to warn of a large-scale attack, as suffered by Israel in the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 - are typically followed by the creation of investigative committees that scrutinize intelligence processes, highlight gaps and vulnerabilities, and recommend mechanisms to prevent future failures. But without a profound cultural shift within the intelligence organization and its personnel – specifically, the integration of humility into the organizational DNA – these mechanisms will not deliver the desired outcome.