Iran’s repeated threats to avenge the reported assassination of its chief nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was shot dead outside Tehran in November, raise the likelihood of Iranian armed action against Israeli targets. The threats also serve as a reminder that Iran has a long history of both sponsoring terrorism and actively engaging in it with its own personnel, and that it has spent decades building a global, highly active Shiite terror network.

Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has announced his candidacy for the Iranian presidential elections in June 2021. Dehghan has a toxic military background. In the 1980s he was responsible for the vicious crackdown on opponents of the Islamic regime, and he played a central role in the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut that killed hundreds. He may well become the new president of the Islamic regime as more military men are expected to run for the office.

In 2021, Iran will be preparing for a presidential election even as it faces an unprecedented economic crisis. Some conservatives argue that a military figure could turn the country around by virtue of his “jihadist spirit” and “military charisma.” While the allure of such a person as president is attractive to some in Tehran, structural impediments remain. The power of the Office of the Supreme Leader will prove a formidable obstacle in the path of any military figure who hopes to ascend to the presidency in the near term.

The paltry number of demonstrators who took to the streets of Iran in response to the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, as well as other forms of evidence, reveal that the Iranian regime is dangerously isolated from the country’s citizens. The disconnection between the regime and the people is reminiscent of the Soviet regime in its last years in power.

The killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, long-time mainstay of the Iranian military nuclear program, is a severe blow to that program and another massive intelligence failure by Iranian internal security. It is difficult at this stage to assess the implications of the operation on the Iranian nuclear program and the political situation, especially in light of the upcoming change of government in Washington.

This past Friday, the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in a well-organized raid 70 km outside the city of Tehran. A commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Fakhrizadeh headed the important Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research of the Ministry of Defense, which conducted nuclear weapons research. His killing reflects a major breach in Iranian counterintelligence and could indicate that the regime’s intelligence and security apparatuses have been compromised. Iran will have to respond to Fakhrizadeh´s assassination, but will likely do so in a manner that avoids full-scale war.