Erdoğan Battles on Multiple Fronts in Risky Regional Power Bid

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is at odds with just about everybody. He is on opposite sides with Russia in Syria as well as Libya and is trying the patience of his US and European allies. Turkey and Russia are testing the limits of what was always at best an opportunistic, fragile partnership aimed at capitalizing on a seemingly diminishing US interest in the Middle East, already evident under President Barack Obama and continuing under Donald Trump, who is haphazardly redefining what he sees as America’s national interests.

Turkey vs. Syria: A Culture of Enmity

The 290 Turkish soldiers killed in action on Syrian soil in recent years are a grim reminder of the unsettled questions that continue, after decades, to poison relations between the two neighboring countries.

Turkey’s Syria Intervention Serves Israeli Strategic Interests

Turkey’s invasion of Syria to protect Idlib will bog it down in a war it cannot win. At the same time, it severely weakens the Assad regime and could help oust Iran from Syria.

Turkey and Russia: Not Friends After All

Burak Bekdil
March 26, 2020
Paper No. 1505

After a three-and-a-half-year marriage of convenience, Turkey and Russia have come to realize that they are fighting on opposite sides of two proxy wars: one in Syria and the other in Libya. This comes after Russia sold Turkey $2.5 billion worth of S-400 air defense systems, won a multibillion-dollar nuclear plant contract, signed up for a lucrative natural gas pipeline, and widened the gap between NATO and its part-time member Turkey.

Turkey and Coronavirus: Devout Muslims Will Defeat the “Jewish Plot”

Burak Bekdil
March 24, 2020
Paper No. 1501

Turkey appears to be handling the coronavirus crisis relatively well, although its low case numbers reflect the low number of tests being administered. Pious Turkish Muslims are blaming dark anti-Turkish forces and, of course, the Jews for unleashing the virus on the world.

Kastellorizo: Tiny Island, Colossal Dispute

Burak Bekdil
March 11, 2020
Paper No. 1479

Sitting just 2 km away from the Turkish coast and containing a population of only 500, the island of Kastellorizo, the tiniest of the Greek Dodecanese islands, is the focal point of a multinational maritime dispute. No one seems to have found a way to resolve the quarrel between Turkey and the EU + US + Israel + Egypt over this island.

Islamist Parties in Turkey: A Perpetual Matryoshka

Burak Bekdil
March 9, 2020
Paper No. 1475

Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu, the personal choice of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the office, and former deputy PM Ali Babacan, the respected economy tzar, are bursting onto the political stage to challenge their former boss and comrade in arms. Their popularity remains unknown, but they could potentially change the political landscape and act as kingmakers.

Turkey’s “Defense Line”: An Ideological Front

Turkey’s latest moves in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean should be viewed in the context of the recent Kuala Lumpur Summit, which announced the emergence of a new ideological bloc to counter Saudi Arabia consisting of Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and Malaysia. Turkey’s new geopolitical strategy is as much ideological as it is “defensive.”

Turkey and Israel: Can Pragmatism Defeat “Bad Blood”?

The Turkish admiral who masterminded Turkey’s maritime deal with Libya thinks the same agreement should also be signed with Israel. Many might be tempted to think there is too much metaphorical “bad blood” between Turkey and Israel to permit any degree of rapprochement. But subtle signs suggest this may not be the whole picture.

The “Democratic Bloc” of the Eastern Med Cements Its Friendship

2020 is expected to be another year of fruitful cooperation for Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, which are working together to counter rising instability caused by Turkey. Their recent agreement to commit to the construction of the EastMed pipeline opens a new chapter in a friendship they have worked on for over a decade. They are taking steps to obtain American support for the trilateral scheme despite Washington’s concerns about its potential impact on the US’s long-term partnership with Ankara. Notably, the recent killing by the US of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani found Greece standing by its allies, the US and Israel, though that position risks undermining its relations with Iran.