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Turkey

Islamist Parties in Turkey: A Perpetual Matryoshka

Former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu, the personal choice of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the office, and former deputy PM Ali Babacan, the respected economy tzar, are bursting onto the political stage to challenge their former boss and comrade in arms. Their popularity remains unknown, but they could potentially change the political landscape and act as kingmakers.

Turkey’s “Defense Line”: An Ideological Front

Turkey’s latest moves in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean should be viewed in the context of the recent Kuala Lumpur Summit, which announced the emergence of a new ideological bloc to counter Saudi Arabia consisting of Iran, Turkey, Qatar, and Malaysia. Turkey’s new geopolitical strategy is as much ideological as it is “defensive.”

The “Democratic Bloc” of the Eastern Med Cements Its Friendship

2020 is expected to be another year of fruitful cooperation for Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, which are working together to counter rising instability caused by Turkey. Their recent agreement to commit to the construction of the EastMed pipeline opens a new chapter in a friendship they have worked on for over a decade. They are taking steps to obtain American support for the trilateral scheme despite Washington’s concerns about its potential impact on the US’s long-term partnership with Ankara. Notably, the recent killing by the US of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani found Greece standing by its allies, the US and Israel, though that position risks undermining its relations with Iran.   

Photo-Ops Notwithstanding, Iran Faces the US Alone

Iran is now assessing whether it should retaliate further against the US for the targeting of Qassem Soleimani, and if so, how. Its relationships with Russia and Turkey might look warm, but they are troubled. Neither is likely to leap to Tehran’s side in its clash with the US. Israel should exploit Iran’s fissures with Russia and Turkey to its advantage.

The Soleimani Affair Reveals Turkey’s Directionless Regional Policy

The Turkish Foreign Ministry’s belated statement in response to the Soleimani killing was dry in its language, reflecting the government’s confusion over what position to take. While the government is expressing itself with caution, the Islamist pro-Erdoğan press is expressing a wide range of often contradictory responses. The lack of clarity in Ankara over the Soleimani affair betrays Turkey’s directionless regional policy.

Turkey: Jihadist Highway Revisited

Shortly before the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Washington, Turkey captured one of the wives of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, the slain leader of ISIS, in addition to several other family members. A week earlier, Turkish police detained 43 suspected ISIS terrorists allegedly preparing for a major attack on Turkish soil. This is all good news, but it’s hardly the only news.    

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